SAO PAULO – A recent Datafolha survey reveals that Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain locked in a virtual tie for October’s anticipated election runoff, with the senator showing slight gains that fall within the poll’s margin of error.
The survey indicates that Flavio Bolsonaro, whose father is former President Jair Bolsonaro, would capture 46% of votes in a head-to-head matchup, while Lula would secure 45%. This represents a shift from early March polling that showed Lula at 46% versus the younger Bolsonaro’s 43%.
Saturday’s results mark the initial instance where Flavio Bolsonaro has numerically outpaced Lula in Datafolha polling, though both candidates remain statistically even due to the survey’s two-point margin of error.
The 80-year-old Lula, who is pursuing a fourth non-consecutive presidential term, has watched his polling advantage diminish throughout this year. Flavio Bolsonaro’s standing has improved following his father’s public endorsement in December, despite the elder Bolsonaro being under house arrest for alleged coup plotting.
While Lula continues to hold the advantage in first-round polling when voters spontaneously name candidates, he has lost his lead when respondents are presented with a list of potential candidates, creating another statistical tie with Bolsonaro.
The Datafolha survey collected responses from 2,004 voters across 137 municipalities between Tuesday and Thursday of this week.
