Boeing is standing by its long-term prediction for strong worldwide demand for commercial aircraft, releasing a market outlook on Saturday ahead of the Farnborough Airshow in England that looks nearly identical to the one it issued last year.
The American aircraft manufacturer is projecting industry-wide global deliveries of 43,625 new commercial jets and cargo planes between 2026 and 2045. That breaks down to 33,545 single-aisle aircraft, 7,715 widebody jets, 930 factory-built freighters, and 1,435 regional aircraft.
The forecast puts Boeing at odds with its European competitor Airbus, which recently cut its own projection by 1% to 42,060 new planes, pointing to the Iran war and ongoing trade tensions as reasons for the reduction.
Boeing anticipates air passenger traffic will grow about 2.3% this year — less than half the 5.3% growth rate recorded last year. However, the company expects a rebound, with growth climbing to between 6% and 7% in 2027 and 5% to 6% in 2028.
Boeing Commercial Marketing Vice President Darren Hulst told reporters, “Our outlook is that passenger traffic globally will be where it would have been by the end of 2028.” He noted that the current slowdown is fundamentally different from the prolonged demand collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Over the full 20-year period, Boeing projects passenger traffic will grow at an average annual rate of 4%, with cargo traffic increasing 3.7%, the global jet fleet expanding 3%, and the world economy growing 2.5%.
Hulst pointed out that demand for new aircraft continues to outpace what manufacturers are able to actually deliver. While passenger traffic last year bounced back to pre-pandemic levels, the number of new jets being delivered still hasn’t returned to 2018 output levels.
Boeing estimates there will be a shortfall of nearly 2,000 aircraft heading into 2026. The gap in single-aisle jets is not expected to close until around the end of this decade, while shortages in widebody aircraft could stretch into the early 2030s.
The company’s forecast assumes demand will be split roughly evenly between replacing aging aircraft and expanding existing fleets — with 21,475 deliveries going toward replacements and 22,150 supporting fleet growth. The global fleet is expected to nearly double, rising from around 28,000 aircraft in 2025 to 50,000 by 2045, with newer-generation planes growing from 32% of the fleet to 92%.
By region, China is expected to account for 21% of all deliveries, followed by Eurasia at 20%, North America and South/Southeast Asia at 19% each, the Middle East and Africa at 10%, Latin America at 6%, and Oceania/Northeast Asia at 5%.
The forecast reflects an industry still working through the effects of repeated disruptions, with manufacturing capacity and supply chain fragility continuing to limit output. Boeing also faces delays in getting regulatory certification for several key aircraft programs, including the 737 MAX 7 and 10 and the 777-9.
Hulst said the long-term case for air travel demand remains solid, driven by trade, tourism, migration, and the continued expansion of airline networks. “The reason why we travel and the reason why goods move isn’t changing,” he said.
