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Tag: winter storm

  • Historic Winter Storm to Hammer Delmarva and South Jersey; Thundersnow Possible Tonight

    Historic Winter Storm to Hammer Delmarva and South Jersey; Thundersnow Possible Tonight

    A major and potentially historic winter storm is set to bring crippling snowfall, blizzard conditions, damaging winds, and significant coastal flooding to the Delmarva Peninsula and southern New Jersey through Monday.

    The storm is rapidly intensifying as it tracks northeast along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Forecast guidance continues to show the low deepening dramatically offshore, potentially reaching near 970 millibars. This strengthening coastal system will place Delmarva and South Jersey in a prime zone for heavy snow, strong winds, and dangerous conditions.

    Heavy Snow Becoming Intense This Evening

    Light precipitation is already spreading into the region, but colder air will quickly take over this afternoon and evening. Any early rain or mix will transition to all snow as the heaviest precipitation moves in.

    Snowfall rates are expected to exceed 2 inches per hour at times tonight, especially across Delaware and southern New Jersey. Widespread totals of 1 to 2 feet are expected across much of Delmarva, with locally higher amounts possible near the Delaware and New Jersey coasts where banding sets up.

    Southern New Jersey is expected to see some of the heaviest snowfall, particularly along the coastal counties where intense snow bands may persist for several hours.

    Thundersnow Possible Tonight

    With very strong upward motion in the atmosphere and intense snow bands developing, thundersnow is possible tonight across parts of Delmarva and southern New Jersey. This rare phenomenon occurs when lightning and thunder develop within heavy snow bands, often signaling extremely heavy snowfall rates and rapidly deteriorating visibility.

    If thundersnow develops, snowfall rates could briefly become even more intense, leading to near whiteout conditions.

    Blizzard Conditions and Life-Threatening Travel

    As the storm strengthens offshore tonight, winds will ramp up significantly. Northeast winds of 20 to 35 mph will shift north and northwest into Monday, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph inland and up to 60 mph along the coast.

    The combination of heavy, wet snow and strong winds will produce blowing and drifting snow, sharply reduced visibility, and potentially impossible travel conditions. Blizzard Warnings are in effect across all of Delaware and all of New Jersey.

    Even outside of strict blizzard criteria, travel is expected to become extremely dangerous Sunday night into early Monday. Residents are strongly urged to avoid travel once conditions worsen.

    Power Outages Likely

    Snow will initially be heavy and wet, sticking to trees and power lines. Combined with strong wind gusts, this increases the risk for scattered power outages across the region.

    Coastal Flooding Expected Tonight

    In addition to snow and wind, widespread coastal flooding is expected during tonight’s high tide cycle.

    Strong onshore winds will push water into the back bays and along the Atlantic coastline of southern New Jersey and Delaware. Moderate coastal flooding is likely, with some locations potentially reaching major flood stage, especially from Ocean County, New Jersey southward through Sussex County, Delaware.

    Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for Atlantic and Cape May Counties in New Jersey and for Kent and Sussex Counties in Delaware.

    Another round of minor to moderate flooding may occur Monday as ocean swells remain elevated, even as winds gradually shift offshore.

    No Tidal Flooding for Maryland Eastern Shore Rivers

    While Atlantic coastal areas face significant flooding concerns, tidal flooding is not expected along the tidal Maryland Eastern Shore waterways.

  • Coastal Winter Storm to Bring Snow, Wind, and Tidal Concerns to Delmarva This Weekend

    Coastal Winter Storm to Bring Snow, Wind, and Tidal Concerns to Delmarva This Weekend

    A rapidly intensifying coastal storm is expected to develop off the East Coast this weekend, bringing a combination of snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding concerns to parts of the Delmarva Peninsula. While the storm is forecast to track far enough offshore to limit widespread impacts inland, coastal and southern portions of Delmarva remain at risk for more significant winter weather impacts.

    Snowfall Forecast

    Snowfall amounts across Delmarva will feature a very sharp gradient, with accumulations increasing quickly from north to south and from inland areas toward the coast.

    Northern and central Delaware, along with much of interior Maryland’s Eastern Shore, are expected to see little accumulation, generally less than 1 inch. This includes areas such as Dover, Easton, and much of inland Kent and Queen Anne’s counties.

    Across central Delmarva, including Cambridge and Georgetown, snowfall totals are forecast to range from a coating up to around 1 inch, with 1 to 3 inches possible near Salisbury.

    The highest snowfall totals are expected along the coast and across southern Delmarva. Ocean City could see 2 to 5 inches of snow, while farther south, Pocomoke City is forecast to receive 3 to 6 inches. The most significant accumulations are expected across Chincoteague, Exmore, and Cape Charles, where 4 to 8 inches of snow remain possible.

    We stress that even small shifts in the storm’s track could result in noticeable changes to snowfall totals, especially along the northern edge of the heavier snow band.

    Timing and Impacts

    Snow is expected to develop Saturday night, with the highest confidence for accumulation occurring overnight into Sunday morning. Snow should gradually taper off from west to east by late Sunday morning.

    Strong winds will become an increasing concern early Sunday morning through Sunday evening, coinciding with the period of rapid storm intensification offshore. Gusts along the Delmarva coastline could approach or exceed 55mph, especially in exposed coastal locations.

    The combination of snow and strong winds could lead to blowing and drifting snow, particularly in southern Delaware and along the coast. These conditions may reduce visibility and create hazardous travel, even where snowfall totals are not extreme.

    Coastal Flooding Concerns

    At least minor tidal flooding is possible during the high tide cycle on Sunday, with some impacts potentially lingering into Monday. While wind direction is expected to limit more severe flooding, higher astronomical tides associated with the full moon, combined with increasing offshore swells, may exacerbate water level rises.

    Additional complications include existing ice on bays and waterways, which could influence how water levels respond during high tide.

    Forecast Confidence

    Confidence is increasing that Delmarva will experience impacts from this winter storm, though confidence in exact snowfall placement remains below average. The storm is expected to remain offshore, but a shift of as little as 50 miles could significantly change snowfall totals across the peninsula.

    Residents across Delmarva, especially in coastal and southern communities, are urged to monitor the forecast closely as additional updates and potential advisories may be issued over the next 24 hours.

  • Growing Threat of Significant Winter Storm for Delmarva This Weekend

    Growing Threat of Significant Winter Storm for Delmarva This Weekend

    Forecast confidence is increasing that a potentially impactful winter storm could affect the Delmarva region late Saturday through Sunday, though important details regarding track and snowfall amounts remain uncertain at this time.

    Weather patterns aloft are becoming increasingly active as we head toward the weekend, with interactions expected between northern and southern jet stream systems. The energy driving this setup is currently located over the Arctic and the Pacific Ocean, meaning it will take several more days for forecasts to fully resolve how this system evolves. Even so, most forecast guidance now consistently shows an area of low pressure developing near Texas on Friday before moving east along the Gulf Coast into Saturday.

    As the system approaches the East Coast, guidance generally favors the low tracking northeast toward the North Carolina coast before moving offshore late Sunday into early Monday. This type of track would place Delmarva on the colder, northern side of the storm, increasing the potential for winter weather impacts across the region. A key question remains how close the storm tracks to the coastline, as even small shifts could have a major influence on snowfall totals.

    A strong arctic high pressure system will be positioned to the north, supplying cold air into the Mid Atlantic. Earlier forecast guidance suggested this high might suppress the storm farther south, limiting impacts locally. However, trends over the past 12 to 24 hours show the storm track edging farther north, increasing the likelihood that precipitation spreads into Delmarva.

    Snow probabilities have responded accordingly. Current guidance now indicates a 75 to 95 percent chance of at least 2 inches of snow and a 70 to 85 percent chance of 6 inches or more for areas along and south of the Interstate 95 corridor, with probabilities decreasing farther north.

    Even more impressive with NBM blends of >12 inches of snow are between 50-60% as of this morning. These numbers are notably higher than those from previous forecast cycles and point toward a growing signal for a meaningful winter weather event.

    If this storm materializes, snowfall could begin late Saturday and continue through Sunday, with the potential for lingering impacts into Monday depending on how quickly the system moves away. While confidence in exact snowfall totals remains low, the overall signal for a winter storm affecting at least part of Delmarva is stronger than typically seen at this lead time.

    It is important to note that East Coast winter storms often produce narrow bands of heavy snow, sometimes only 50 to 100 miles wide. With the storm’s key ingredients still thousands of miles away, it is far too early to determine which specific locations will see the highest accumulations. Residents across Delmarva should continue to monitor forecast updates closely over the coming days as details become clearer.

  • Unsettled Weekend Weather Possible Across Delmarva As Coastal System Develops With Snow Threat

    Unsettled Weekend Weather Possible Across Delmarva As Coastal System Develops With Snow Threat

    Residents across the Delmarva region will want to stay weather aware this weekend as multiple rounds of precipitation are possible, including the potential for snow. Forecast confidence remains moderate to low, but the overall pattern supports unsettled conditions from Saturday through Sunday night.

    A broad area of low pressure aloft, known as a longwave trough, will settle over the eastern United States this weekend. Several smaller disturbances moving through this pattern will help generate periods of precipitation, beginning early Saturday and possibly continuing into Sunday night.

    The first system is expected to move through Saturday morning and appears to be relatively weak. Precipitation may begin near or shortly after daybreak, when temperatures are at their coldest. Some locations could see a brief mix or light snow at the onset, especially inland areas, before temperatures rise through the morning. As daytime heating and weak warm air move in, most of Delmarva should transition to light rain. Any snow accumulation during this first round is expected to be minimal, with little more than a trace for most areas. Overall precipitation amounts should remain under a tenth of an inch.

    Attention then turns to a second system that could develop offshore late Sunday into Sunday night. This system carries more uncertainty and higher potential impacts, depending largely on how close the surface low tracks to the coast. Recent forecast guidance has shown a slight shift toward a closer approach, which has increased the chance for precipitation across the region, especially near coastal areas.

    With a cold front moving through Saturday night, colder air will be in place on Sunday. If the offshore low tracks close enough, much of the precipitation could fall as snow, particularly during the latter half of Sunday and into Sunday night. At this time, the probability of seeing measurable snow across coastal Delmarva is around 35 to 50 percent (of greater than 1″), with lower chances farther inland. The likelihood of higher snowfall amounts remains low, but it cannot be ruled out if the storm trends closer to the coast.

    While confidence has increased slightly compared to earlier forecasts, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the exact track and strength of this system. Residents across Delmarva should continue to monitor the forecast through the weekend, as small changes in storm position could significantly impact precipitation type and amounts.

    More updates will be provided as forecast confidence improves.

  • Will It Storm Or Will It Be Another Dud? The Talk About Sun-Mon Storm Signal

    Will It Storm Or Will It Be Another Dud? The Talk About Sun-Mon Storm Signal

    We are gearing up to be in a fairly hostile pattern with many pieces of energy to play with here over the next 2 weeks as a large long wave trough sits over the eastern US. The biggest issue right now is do they interact with each other or will they remain strung out wasting the potential for snow lovers out there.

    While the overall risk of impactful wintry weather remains low heading into early next week, colder temperatures mean even small changes in the forecast could introduce a chance for snow.

    A brief warm up to near seasonal levels is expected Saturday ahead of a passing cold front. Behind it, a colder pattern looks likely to settle back in and persist through at least the middle of next week, with temperatures running below normal. During this time, several weak disturbances are forecast to move through the region. While none of these systems appear particularly strong on their own, there is a possibility they could interact in a way that brings a wintry weather threat late Sunday into Monday.

    ECMWF Model Output
    ECMWF-AIFS Model Output
    CMC Model Outpuut
    GFS Model Output

    At this time, the most likely outcome would be flurries or light snow, with limited or no accumulation. However, if the shortwave has more of a interaction with the Jetstream, that can bring larger impacts. Forecast confidence remains low, with precipitation chances generally in the 20 to 30 percent range.

    Given the cold air in place, this period will need to be monitored closely for any changes that could increase the wintry weather threat. For now, the risk of a significant winter storm from Sunday into early next week remains low, but not zero.

  • Winter Uncertainty Towards The Late Week; Social Media Hype Is Crazy Right Now

    Winter Uncertainty Towards The Late Week; Social Media Hype Is Crazy Right Now

    Forecast guidance continues to signal the potential for a disruptive winter weather pattern later this week, mainly from Wednesday through Friday, as an upper level low strengthens over the Lower Great Lakes and moves toward the Northeast. This system is expected to bring an increase in wintry precipitation across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, the central Appalachians, and portions of the interior Northeast, with colder air also setting the stage for lake effect snow in typical snowbelt regions.

    However, confidence in the overall setup remains low. Key details such as the exact placement and strength of the upper level low are still uncertain, which will ultimately determine where the heaviest precipitation develops. There is also considerable question surrounding coastal low development, including whether it forms too late, remains weak, or tracks well offshore. Recent trends as of today favor a later developing system that stays farther out to sea, which would significantly limit impacts for much of the I-95 corridor.

    The primary question for Delmarva centers on whether a coastal low is able to develop in time and close enough to influence the region. Current guidance shows large spread in both timing and track, with recent trends favoring a system that forms too late and remains well offshore. If this trend holds, meaningful winter weather impacts across Delaware, eastern Maryland, and Virginia’s Eastern Shore would be limited or possibly avoided altogether.

    Because of these uncertainties, forecast impacts to travel and infrastructure remain unclear at this time. While some wintry weather is possible inland, especially across higher elevations and areas closer to the Great Lakes, any coastal impacts would depend on how quickly and how close a coastal low can organize. Forecast confidence should improve over the next few days as the system comes into better range of higher resolution models.

  • Icy Post Christmas Storm Across The Northern Mid-Atlantic States

    Icy Post Christmas Storm Across The Northern Mid-Atlantic States

    A significant post-Christmas winter storm is expected to create hazardous conditions from the Great Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast through Saturday morning, bringing a complex mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain that will heavily impact travel and infrastructure across the region.

    According to the Weather Prediction Center, this is a multi-hazard winter storm, with the most dangerous impacts tied to ice accumulation and heavy snowfall. A swath of heavy snow is forecast from central New York into southern New England, including portions of northeastern Pennsylvania and the New York City metro area. Many of these locations could see six inches or more of snow, with snowfall rates exceeding one inch per hour at times, leading to rapidly deteriorating road conditions.

    Farther south, the primary concern shifts from snow to ice. Freezing rain and sleet are expected to dominate across portions of Pennsylvania, western and central Maryland, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, creating a dangerous glaze on untreated surfaces. Ice accumulations over a quarter inch are possible in some areas, increasing the risk for tree damage and scattered power outages.

    Northern Maryland Impacts

    Northern Maryland, including areas near and north of the Baltimore metro, is expected to be near the transition zone between snow and freezing rain. This setup raises the risk for significant sleet accumulation followed by freezing rain, which can be particularly hazardous for travel. Roads may quickly become icy, even where surface temperatures hover near freezing. Elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses will be especially prone to icing. Any ice buildup on trees and power lines could result in localized outages and downed limbs.

    Northern Delmarva Concerns

    Across northern Delmarva, including Cecil County, Kent County, and areas near the upper Chesapeake Bay, a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected to develop, particularly late Friday into Friday night. While snowfall totals are likely limited, even light ice accretion could significantly impact travel along major corridors such as I-95, U.S. Route 13, and local secondary roads. Gusty winds combined with ice may further stress trees and utility lines, increasing the risk of isolated power disruptions.

    Travel and Safety Impacts

    The timing of this storm is particularly concerning, as it coincides with post-Christmas travel. Treacherous road conditions are expected to persist into Saturday morning, especially in areas affected by freezing rain and sleet. Visibility reductions, slick surfaces, and rapidly changing precipitation types will make driving dangerous, even for experienced winter drivers.

    Residents across northern Maryland and northern Delmarva are urged to closely monitor forecast updates, avoid unnecessary travel during periods of freezing rain, and prepare for the possibility of power outages. This storm serves as a reminder that ice, even more than snow, can quickly escalate impacts and disrupt daily life across the Mid-Atlantic.

  • Delmarva’s First Measurable Snow Of The Season On Friday

    Delmarva’s First Measurable Snow Of The Season On Friday

    Well folks, it looks like we have our first snowfall of season upon us for Friday. Its not a major event or anything but enough to make things a bit slippery for your Friday morning commute. Only because usually the first snow is the one that gives motorists headaches and no being used to dealing with it on the roadways. Here is the break down.

    A weak flat wave system will be riding along an arctic boundary as precipitation enters the colder airmass. An area of high pressure out ahead providing the fresh arctic airmass will be enough to support a few hours of wet snow across the Mid-Atlantic starting around 2-3am on Friday and become more steady when day breaks. Snow will remain steady through 10am before beginning to taper off and or mixing with rain towards noon across the Maryland Eastern Shore and the VA counties.

    The latest forecast is calling for a spread of a heavy coating to on the high end 2 inches across Southern Maryland and Central Delmarva. This is where the majority of the heavier snow bands will likely end up as temperatures will range from 28-32 during the whole duration. Area further south across Ocean City along the coast will be dealing with some mixing problems at times with the warmer ocean waters nearby. Areas further north across Northern Maryland, Northern Delmarva, and South Jersey will only see a dusting up to a inch with light snow overall based on the latest track.

    As mentioned before, impacts from this winter storm will be very light with only light accumulations expected. Motorists should still use caution on area roadways as they may become icy and slushy at times during the Friday morning commute.

  • Snowfall Forecast Across Delmarva Weds-Thurs Feb 19-20th

    Snowfall Forecast Across Delmarva Weds-Thurs Feb 19-20th

    A very difficult forecast remains in place as small portions of Delmarva are under the gun for a significant winter storm. A massive shift in the overall storm track the last 24-48 hours taking what would have been a widespread severe winter storm to more of a nuisance across northern and central Delmarva. And quite honestly one of the biggest failures of all numerical models I have seen thus far in my 15 years of doing this. From having a universal 100% trend for days and days with all the medium range guidance to a 200-300 mile shift south over the weekend is mind boggling.

    NBM blends continue to drop across areas of Central Delmarva where there will be a sharp cut off from the northern axis of precipitation. Light accumulations are expected through these areas while further south in Accomack and Northampton counties are still in great shape of significant accumulations of 6 inches or more.

    NAM Model
    GFS Model

    Of course there has to be one that wants to throw a wrench into the mix and that is the NAM model which wants to shift back north again bringing the pain of widespread significant snowfall. Although the NAM is on this ship alone which at this point in the game is the major outlier. Especially for the fact of bringing 17 inches snow across Salisbury, MD which was the original outputs before the weekend timeframe with all the guidance. Just not feasible anymore at this late in the game. Unless the NAM is seeing something that we don’t. Which i doubt is the case.

    NOAA’s WSSI Index highlighting moderate to major impacts from this winter storm across Accomack and Northampton counties.

    In the National Weather Service’s Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI), the “Major Impacts” category indicates potentially life-threatening conditions and significant disruptions to daily life and infrastructure.

    Key Characteristics of “Major Impacts”:

    • Travel may become dangerous or impossible due to heavy snow, ice accumulation, or blizzard conditions.
    • Widespread power outages are likely, especially with ice storms or strong winds.
    • Infrastructure and emergency response may be severely strained, with delayed or limited emergency services.
    • Potential closures of roads, schools, and businesses due to hazardous conditions.
    • Risk to life and property, particularly for those caught in extreme conditions without proper preparation.

    This level is just below the most severe category, “Extreme Impacts,” but still signifies a high-impact winter storm that requires preparation and caution.

  • Historic Arctic Outbreak and Potential Severe Winter Storm Poised to Impact Central and Eastern U.S. Next Week

    Historic Arctic Outbreak and Potential Severe Winter Storm Poised to Impact Central and Eastern U.S. Next Week

    A robust Arctic air mass is forecast to plunge into the Central U.S. next week, bringing widespread record-breaking low temperatures and dangerously low wind chills. Meteorologists indicate high confidence in this event, with numerous daily minimum temperature records expected to be set from the central Plains to the south-central U.S. between Tuesday and Friday. Some locations may approach or exceed their lowest recorded temperatures for this late in the winter season, with the freeze line potentially reaching as far south as the Gulf Coast.

    Hazardous Wind Chill Conditions Expected

    Accompanying the frigid temperatures, dangerously low wind chills ranging from -30°F to -60°F are expected across the northern Plains, persisting for several days. These conditions significantly increase the risk of frostbite and hypothermia with even brief exposure. Sub-zero wind chills are forecast to extend southward into Texas, Arkansas, and portions of western Tennessee and Kentucky, posing a widespread risk to public safety and infrastructure.

    Increased Potential for Winter Storm and Heavy Snowfall

    In addition to the Arctic outbreak, there is an increasing probability of a significant severe winter storm forming along the periphery of the cold air mass. While the specific track and intensity remain uncertain, current model guidance suggests that areas from the central Plains and the Ozarks to Kentucky through potentially the Northeast U.S. corridor could experience a highly impactful snowfall. Given the dynamic nature of winter storm development, continued monitoring of forecasts is essential as the system evolves.

    Model guidance continues to grow higher confidence of a severe winter storm with snowfall amounts exceeding 10 inches is becoming more of a reality. NBM probability outputs show very highly probabilities of >60% for 6 inches or more of snowfall with going as far as >30% chance of 12 inches or more of snowfall.

  • Significant Winter Storm Set to Impact the Delmarva Region Tuesday into Wednesday

    Significant Winter Storm Set to Impact the Delmarva Region Tuesday into Wednesday

    Another winter storm is set to impact the region as we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a mix of heavy snow, ice, and rain across the Delmarva Peninsula. Snow and wintry precipitation will begin Tuesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday morning, leading to widespread travel disruptions and hazardous conditions.

    This storm is developing as a new area of low pressure forms over the Deep South and tracks northeastward along a stalled frontal boundary. At the same time, a strong high-pressure system to the north will funnel cold air into the region, setting the stage for a classic overrunning event. In this setup, warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico moves over the dense, cold Arctic air advancing southward from Canada, creating widespread heavy snowfall from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic. This process, known in meteorology as isentropic ascent, drives the formation of clouds and precipitation as the warm air rises and cools.

    In a winter storm overrunning setup, isentropic ascent occurs when warm, moist air is forced to rise over a cold, dense air mass at the surface. This typically happens along a stationary front or warm front, where the warm air follows sloping isentropic surfaces (constant potential temperature). As the air rises, it cools adiabatically, leading to cloud formation and precipitation.

    Since winter storms involve subfreezing surface temperatures, this precipitation can fall as snow, sleet, or freezing rain, depending on the temperature profile. Stronger isentropic ascent enhances moisture transport and lift, leading to heavier and more widespread winter precipitation.

    Snowfall Potential and Accumulation Estimates

    The latest ensemble model guidance indicates a significant increase in snowfall probabilities across central and northern Delmarva. There is now a 60-90% chance of at least 3 inches of snow north of the Maryland-Delaware state line, with 40-60% probabilities for accumulations exceeding 6 inches from Delmar, DE to Smyrna, DE.

    The heaviest snowfall totals are expected between the MD/DE line and Smyrna, where an average of 4 to 8 inches is forecast. This extends westward toward Washington, D.C.. However, localized snow bands could produce isolated totals up to 10 inches, particularly across central Delmarva.

    Coastal and Southern Delmarva Impacts

    Further south, near the coastal areas including Berlin and Pocomoke City, the storm will begin as snow but may transition to a mix of snow, sleet, and rain as temperatures rise above freezing. This will reduce overall snowfall totals due to melting overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday.

    Meanwhile, areas further north will remain all snow, though the intensity may be slightly lower compared to central Delmarva. Regardless, this storm is shaping up to be a significant winter weather event across the region, bringing hazardous travel conditions and potential disruptions.

    Stay tuned for updates as forecast details continue to evolve.

  • Wintry Mix Threatens Central and Northern Delmarva Again with Ice Accretion and Slick Travel This Weekend

    Wintry Mix Threatens Central and Northern Delmarva Again with Ice Accretion and Slick Travel This Weekend

    A complex winter weather system is set to impact portions of central and northern Delmarva, bringing a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain as temperatures hover near the freezing mark towards early Saturday afternoon. This system will create hazardous travel conditions, especially in areas where freezing rain leads to ice accretion.

    Weather Setup and Model Guidance

    Latest guidance from the ICON, GFS, and ECMWF suggests that cold air at the surface will remain entrenched across northern Delmarva, allowing for a prolonged period of wintry precipitation before a gradual changeover to rain. Meanwhile, high-resolution CAMS guidance, including the HRW-WRF & NAM12KM, continues to highlight higher localized areas of ice accumulation, particularly in northern regions where cold air remains stubborn.

    As the system moves through, precipitation is expected to start as a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across northern and central Delmarva, with surface temperatures struggling to rise above 32°F. By early afternoon, warmer air aloft will cause much of central Delmarva to transition to plain rain, while northern Delmarva may see continued ice accretion before the system exits early Sunday.

    Potential Ice Accretion and Travel Hazards

    • Ice Accumulation: Up to 0.10” of ice is possible across northern & central Delmarva, with localized higher amounts in areas where freezing rain persists.
    • Travel Impacts: Slick roadways and hazardous conditions are expected, particularly on bridges and overpasses. Untreated surfaces may become icy and dangerous.
    • Timing: The wintry mix will continue through early afternoon, with a gradual transition to rain in central Delmarva through the evening hours. Northern areas may hold onto freezing rain longer before precipitation moves out early Sunday morning.

    Stay Weather Aware

    Residents across central and northern Delmarva should stay updated with the latest forecasts, as even small changes in temperature could impact precipitation type and ice accumulation. If traveling, exercise caution and allow extra time, especially in areas where freezing rain may linger.

  • Potential Winter Storm Threat Looming Early Next Week

    Potential Winter Storm Threat Looming Early Next Week

    Just when it seemed like winter might be winding down, another round of winter weather is on the horizon. After a brief break from bitter cold and snow, forecast models indicate that winter storm threats will return next week, affecting the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. This won’t be just one isolated storm, but several waves of wintry weather are expected. This setup is similar to the major winter storm we experienced in early January, featuring a classic “overrunning” pattern, which often produces significant snowfall in our region. But what exactly is an overrunning winter storm?

    An overrunning winter storm occurs when warm, moisture-laden air moves over a colder, denser air mass at the surface, leading to prolonged periods of wintry precipitation. This happens when warm air from the south collides with cold air entrenched to the north. Unlike last time, however, this system is being driven by a strong Arctic high-pressure system, rather than a blocking low-pressure system to the north. Scientifically, this process is known as Isentropic Ascent—a term used to describe how air is lifted along a temperature gradient.

    ICON Model Output
    ECMWF Model Output
    UKMET Model Output
    CMC Model Output

    Current mid-range model guidance (GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, ICON) consistently shows an overrunning event with multiple waves of low pressure traveling along a stalled frontal boundary. A strong high-pressure system (1038-1040mb) will provide ample cold air north of this boundary, while incoming warm, moist air will fuel heavy precipitation. The exact position of the frontal boundary will determine whether areas experience heavy snow, plain rain, or, in the worst-case scenario, significant icing. Overrunning setups are notorious for producing dangerous ice storms, as cold air remains locked at the surface while warm air aloft causes precipitation to fall as freezing rain or sleet—leading to hazardous road conditions.

    WSSI-P “Minor” Impacts Probability
    WSSI-P “Moderate” Impacts Probability

    The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has already issued impact probabilities for next week’s potential winter storm, indicating a 50-60% chance of Minor Winter Storm Impacts and a 40-60% chance of Moderate Winter Storm Impacts. This suggests that disruptions to travel and infrastructure closures could occur.

    We’ll continue to monitor the latest forecast developments and provide real-time updates as this potential winter storm approaches early next week. Stay tuned for the latest information.

  • Winter Storm On The Way For Delmarva Sunday Into Monday

    Winter Storm On The Way For Delmarva Sunday Into Monday

    🌨️ First Call Snowfall Forecast 🌨️

    Alright folks, as we approach the weekend, we want to inform you about an upcoming winter storm expected to impact our region, particularly from Sunday to Monday. This storm is anticipated to significantly affect the northern areas of Delmarva and northern Maryland, while southern regions may encounter a mix of winter weather, including rain, which will likely reduce snowfall totals.

    Current forecasts predict that a considerable snowfall of 2-4 inches could cover areas along the I-95 corridor, extending from Washington, DC to Wilmington, DE. Communities such as La Plata, Easton, Dover, and Vineland should also prepare for a dusting to 2 inches of snow. For residents south of this region, conditions will begin with rain but are expected to transition to ice and light snow accumulation of less than an inch.

    Snow and rain are projected to commence Sunday morning, intensifying throughout the afternoon. The precipitation is expected to taper off by early Monday morning; however, please brace for dangerously cold temperatures as we start the new week.

    Stay safe and continue to follow us for updates on this evolving weather scenario! ❄️

  • Another Winter Storm Moves Across The Nation From Texas Towards The Mid-Atlantic

    Another Winter Storm Moves Across The Nation From Texas Towards The Mid-Atlantic

    🌨️ As the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions work towards recovery from the significant winter storm that recently impacted the area, we are bracing ourselves for another winter storm on the horizon! This time, the storm is coming from the Deep South, particularly Texas, where people are preparing for several inches of snow and ice starting tomorrow. Even places in the Deep South that usually don’t see snow will experience this major winter weather event!

    🌪️ As the low-pressure system advances into the Southeast, it is expected to spread snow across much of the Midwest, the Carolinas, and into the Mid-Atlantic states. While this storm could have been a significant threat with more interaction from the northern jet stream (potentially leading to an intense East Coast nor’easter this weekend), current models indicate that the storm’s path will remain further south and slightly weaker as it reaches the Eastern USA.

    ❄️ Current analyses suggest light to moderate snowfall accumulations for the Delmarva region, with the heaviest totals anticipated in the southern coastal areas. We’ll continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as we receive more detailed forecasts. Stay safe and stay tuned for more information!

  • 🔍 Another Winter Storm is Potentially Approaching This Weekend On Delmarva ❄️

    🔍 Another Winter Storm is Potentially Approaching This Weekend On Delmarva ❄️

    As we continue to recover from the recent winter storm, we want to keep everyone informed about the potential for yet another system approaching this weekend. This upcoming storm is part of the southern stream system that I mentioned prior to Christmas. Originating from the deep south, forecasters are noting an increasing chance for a snowstorm in the DFW area, and winter storm watches are already in effect.

    At this moment, the overall strength of the storm remains uncertain due to an additional weather disturbance that is currently moving down from Canada. The interaction between these two weather systems will be crucial; if they phase together, we could potentially see a stronger storm developing along the eastern seaboard, which might shape into a classic Nor’easter.

    Current forecasts indicate that we may experience a weaker system, with light to moderate snow accumulations expected. However, given the recent snowfall, this could worsen already hazardous travel conditions in the region. We will be keeping a close eye on the development of this weather system and will provide updates as we receive more information. Stay tuned and stay safe!

  • Winter Storm Safety: Delaware State Police and DelDOT Issue Snow Safety Tips

    Winter Storm Safety: Delaware State Police and DelDOT Issue Snow Safety Tips

    Dover DE:

    As the snow continues to fall across Delaware, state officials are emphasizing safety measures for all residents. The Delaware State Police have issued a series of guidelines aimed at keeping motorists safe during the winter weather:

    • Stay Home if Possible: If you can avoid travel, do so. Conditions can be unpredictable and hazardous.
    • Drive Cautiously: For those who must travel, slow down, keep a safe distance from other vehicles, and ensure your vehicle is free of snow and ice to prevent accidents.
    • Emergency Preparedness: Carry an emergency kit in your car with items like blankets, a flashlight, food, and water. Check road conditions via official channels before setting out.
    • Respect Snow Plows: Do not attempt to pass or crowd snow removal vehicles. The Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT) crews are diligently working to clear the roads, and they need space to operate safely.

    DelDOT has expressed gratitude towards their crews for their relentless efforts during the storm, urging the public to assist by not crowding the plows.

    The Delaware Emergency Management Agency (DEMA) also reminds everyone to check on neighbors, particularly the elderly or those who might need assistance during this time.

    With these safety tips in mind, Delawareans are encouraged to take extra precautions as the winter weather persists. Your safety, and the safety of those around you, is paramount.

  • Significant Winter Storm Ahead For Delmarva Sunday Night Through Tuesday.

    Significant Winter Storm Ahead For Delmarva Sunday Night Through Tuesday.

    Signs continue to push for a significant winter storm on the way from areas of the central Plains towards the Mid-Atlantic states over the next few days with heavy snow and dangerous ice. A few changes in the overall forecast are now in play of a colder and slight shift south in the overall snow axis. Let’s go through the run down once more.

    During the daytime hours on Sunday will we be looking at a sunny but very chilly day with highs struggling to get above freezing before later that night clouds start to increase and the snow moves in. Everyone across the region will start off as snow with temperatures in the 20s. Snow ratios will be up slightly during this time period upwards to 15:1. A more powdery & dry snow as temperatures slowly start to warm into the daytime hours on Monday. From the latest futurecast thus far showing widespread areas of moderate snow in time for the Monday morning rush hour and continue throughout the daytime hours. Trends been showing the cold air locking in place a bit better with the extent of the snow shifting south.

    With the American models the GFS/NAM have trended even more south and a little bit colder overall throughout the event but still promoting the warmest solutions of them all. Mixing once again still remaining a possibility towards areas near Salisbury on southward. Significant snowfall accumulations of snow across Central Delmarva. Also some dangerous ice further south in the battle ground zone to shake things up a bit with sleet and freezing rain. These solution have been trending towards the UKMET and ECMWF runs now from the past couple of days.

    UKMET and the ECMWF have been the most aggressive, colder, and even farthest south solutions out of the bunch over the last several days. Also have been the most persistent with the overall snow axis throughout the last several days. Bringing the most significant amounts from areas of the Kent Sussex line through areas near Fruitland, MD. But also as of this afternoon down to Pocomoke City. But i am worry about mixing of ice down in these areas as well so will be holding them a bit lower in amounts as of now.

    As it stands, we are expected widespread amounts of 6-12 inches throughout much of Central and Northern Delmarva with the potential of a localized heavier band to setup during the day on Monday. Mixing is possible for areas further south of Salisbury to reduce totals down a bit. Regardless, a major winter storm is on the way for the first time in 3 years across the region. Make plans and prepare for snow covered roadways and hazardous road conditions. More updates to follow ahead.

  • WINTER STORM EXPECTED FOR DELMARVA SUN-TUES / FIRST CALL FORECAST

    WINTER STORM EXPECTED FOR DELMARVA SUN-TUES / FIRST CALL FORECAST

    *** WINTER STORM EXPECTED FOR DELMARVA SUN-TUES / FIRST CALL FORECAST ***

    Alright ladies and gentlemen, for what seems like a eternity, a winter storm storm has it’s eyes on areas of Delmarva later this weekend to the start of the new work week. A mixture of heavy snow, ice, and even rain for portions of the peninsula and surrounding regions. Let’s give the run down on my current thoughts and the nightmare of a forecast this is turning out to be.

    With the current thinking, many areas across Central and Northern Delmarva are in for one of the largest storms we have seen since Jan 29th 2022 with several inches of snowfall in the forecast. One of the most frustrating aspects is dealing with the typical battleground we see here on the shore with the mixing of ice and rain on the southside. Let’s go through the model suite now that the midday runs have come into play.

    Let’s first start off with the GFS model which has been the biggest push north in the overall mixing battle ground up to the Kent/Sussex county line. Significantly dropping totals from areas south of Milford Delaware to a light 1-3 inches. But absolutely crushing areas from Dover on northward with some blends up to a foot. The other American Model the NAM has been slightly cooler solution with mixing up to Georgetown. Widespread areas of 4-8 in with this solution with 0.10-0.20″ of ice. These two models have been the warmest and most north of the spread.

    Now lets get to more southerly solutions which includes the ICON/CMC/UKMET/ECMWF. The UKMET & ECMWF have been extremely consistent keeping the colder air in place for the duration of this storm for many days now. And from a statistically aspect, these have the highest performing verification in this medium and short term range. The overall axis of heaviest snow with these solutions keeps it between Smyrna through Salisbury with on average 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts. Mixing pushed farther south of Salisbury and more snow for areas of the southern shore. ICON/CMC did trend south toward these solutions today as well.

    And one last blend is well the super blended model known as the NBM (National Blend Of Models) which takes in the consideration of many different solutions with a blend together. Here is a loop of the last several solutions where you see the trend north and then the trend back south again. So you see where the difficulty sets in.

    With that said for now I’m doing a blend between the both north and south solutions. I do worry about mixing up to areas of the mid shore for the warmer mid level temperatures with these kinds of storms. And with the lack of a high pressure to the northeast to lock the cold air in makes it very difficult for a all over region snow event. Even being within 54-72hr time from storm moving in we still have these battles to deal with. There will likely be changes with the snowfall forecast going forward until we get into the 24-48 hour range. Keep checking back for updates as this winter storm unfolds.

  • Major Coastal Storm Friday-Saturday

    Major Coastal Storm Friday-Saturday

    High Res Window Model Showing Major Coastal Low Over Delmarva

    We have been talking about this scenario throughout the week about a major storm system will be developing in the Eastern half of the nation. An area of low pressure will be rapidly developing from the Gulf States and runs parallel through the Mid-Atlantic states during the morning hours on Saturday.

    Large Trough In the Eastern US

    Phasing of the Northern Jet and the Sub-Tropical Jet will set the stages of a potential Bomb Cyclone (air pressure that drops more than 24mb’s in 24 hours) to develop. By the time this storm system moves north of New England we could be looking at some serious low pressures by Greenland.

    Low Location Will Be Key

    Depending on the placement of this area of low pressure will determine if we are in the path of the powerful low level Jetstream to setup. The blend solution has the area of low pressure going right over the Delmarva region keeping those powerful winds off of our coasts. But if the low positions further west, this will allow for a short term duration of strong winds exceeding 50 mph at times.

    Low Level Jetstream 90-100kts offshore

    To add more dynamics to the mix, cold air will be crashing on the northwest side of the storm which we may see a burst of snow on the backside during the evening hours. Any snow that does fall will have a extremely difficult time accumulating here on the shore. It’s a matter of how quickly can those temperatures crash on that backside of the storm. And the position of the low. If we have a further east solution like the NAM3km, then our chances are high but I have that one as my outlier as of now. I’m leaning more with the HRW-ARW with the further west solution overall.

    Model Solutions Regarding The Backside Snow Threat
  • Pending Blizzard On Delmarva; Significant Snowfall On The Way

    Pending Blizzard On Delmarva; Significant Snowfall On The Way

    My poker chips are ALL IN ladies and gentlemen. A major winter storm is coming beginning tonight and going all the way into Saturday Afternoon. Model guidance from last night and this morning has shown a significant shift westward with the track. Coastal Delmarva will be in the hot seat regarding the most significant impacts from this winter storm.

    For the first time since January of 2018, we have Blizzard Warnings for Northampton, Accomack, Worcester, Wicomico, Somerset, and Sussex Counties from 7pm Friday until 7pm on Saturday. Winter Storm Warnings are in place for all of Delmarva except for Cecil County in Maryland. There is very strict criteria in place to qualify for a Blizzard Warning. I do think that a expansion westward with the Blizzard Warnings are not out of the question.

    Futurecast Radar

    Snow will be developing across the region from 5-8pm. And the heaviest will be in place from Midnight tonight through noon Saturday. Significant snowfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour are possible with wind gusts of 40-50 mph. This will create a roadway nightmare on the shore for Saturday morning. Avoid travel at all cost if you can during the height of this blizzard.

  • Another Winter Storm Looming To Close Out January?

    Another Winter Storm Looming To Close Out January?

    ECMWF Ensemble Low Plots from 00z

    Seems like every weekend this past month we are talking about another snow threat one after another. The only difference is that this one could become a powerful low off our coasts going into Friday and Saturday. With this being the end of the active weather pattern and signs showing for the persistent eastern trough will come to close with a more zonal flow (west to east parallel motion of the jet stream). Ensembles have been very persistent about a coastal low about 200 miles offshore with explosive development (aka bombcyclone) scenario with a rapidly intensifying oceanic storm that moves across the Gulf Stream. And some of these low placement strengths are nothing to take for granted. A good 80% of them are below 986mb pressure levels when its off our coast. By the time it’s off the coast of Cape Cod we are talking down into the 970s.

    Major Global Model Outputs For This Storm

    With a bit of surprise, there is actually some good agreement between the 3 major global models regarding this storm. ECMWF/GFS/CMC/ICON are on the table for a rapidly intensifying storm off our coasts this coming weekend. The biggest difference is how far offshore will it actually be. Every model without a doubt has a round of snow to the region but how close that low is will make a major difference. CMC/ICON are the most offshore out of the bunch with some light precipitation to the region and then dumping over coastal New England. GFS model coming in at 12z is a little bit westward giving Delmarva a good hit with snow. And then the big elephant of the group the ECMWF and the ensembles being very aggressive with a the furthest west solution giving all of Delmarva a major winter storm. And the ECMWF has been very consistent with that. Some of the ensembles give historic levels of snow but that’s extremely far fetched in my opinion.

    Overall do I think we have a explosive developing oceanic storm? That’s on the increase for sure to close out the weather pattern. It’s going to be a matter of how close will this get to our coast will make the big difference. We have the cold air in place ahead of this system to begin with. It’s something that we will be keeping an eye on this week.

  • Snowfall Forecast Thursday 1/20/2022

    Snowfall Forecast Thursday 1/20/2022

    We are looking at a light snow event right along a arctic frontal boundary during the daytime hours on Thursday. We will begin the morning with temperatures well into the 30’s to near 40 degrees but will be quickly dropping throughout the day. Most locations will start off with some rain showers before transitioning over to snow by the mid morning hours. Temperatures will kick down sub freezing and a light accumulation snow is in the forecast. The greatest accumulations will be across north and western Maryland where as much as 3 inches is possible. Across areas of Delmarva a nice swaft of 1-2 inches is not out of the question. Further south in the Virginia counties will see a dusting to a inch where rates will be on the light side. For those down there you will have to wait until Saturday for a more substantial snow ahead.

  • Winter’s 1-2 Punch To Finish Out The Week

    Winter’s 1-2 Punch To Finish Out The Week

    HRRR Futurecast Only Until 7am Thursday

    Let’s first begin with the snow threat going into Thursday morning. We will be having a arctic front that will be slowing sinking southward across the Mid-Atlantic taking temperatures in the 40’s down to subfreezing. In addition with a transition of rain to snow behind that front with a weak disturbance riding along this front. Some of the high resolution model guidance have a good agreement that a changeover is expected during the morning hours Thursday.

    Cluster of Models Regarding The Snow Threat Thursday Morning

    Now i don’t expect anything significant regarding accumulations with this one but some could pick up a light accumulation. Especially those further north on the shore. We could be looking at some slippery travel in the area during the morning commute Thursday. Colder temperatures will continue to plummet throughout Thursday into Friday just in time for the second and maybe even more significant threat.

    Arctic Front Settling Thursday-Friday

    When the passes through we are going to see a fresh supply of arctic air with temperatures dropping down into the teens Thursday night and really struggling to get anywhere near 30 on Friday. This is setting up the stage for round number 2.

    Model Solutions Regarding Snow Threat Friday-Saturday

    Now this is where the really messy situation begins. Unlike the last bigger snow threat to Delmarva, we have some of the best model consensus I have seen in quite some time which made it easy. Well it’s back to the confusing nightmare once again. So let’s break things down into groups.

    ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES/UKMET/NAM

    This group is the very aggressive solutions where we are showing a January 3rd snowstorm repeat across much of the region. Snow and a lot of it too. With the phasing of two jet streams allowing for a low to develop down in the Gulf Of Mexico and move off the Carolina coast. With a strong 1038mb high to north keeping that fresh arctic air locked in. This is a snow lovers dream with a textbox major snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic. The EURO model has been very persistent with this solution for the last several days but for awhile it was alone in that matter. The recent NAM model even though its not out far enough to really see the impacts, but its very aggressive and further northwest. UKMET has a limited amount of products we have access too but its also following the more northwest solution. Now going into the ensembles, there is a very tight agreement in low placements with the 52 members of this model. With some heavy hitting more reliable models getting on board with this solution, it’s something to take note of for sure.

    Messy Solution With Multiple Energy Pieces Not Phasing

    GFS/RGEM/CMC

    Now this group of models keeping all the pieces of energy separate with a much weaker and suppressed solution. We are going to have model runs like because there is so many different pieces these models are going to have to figure out what to do with them. Not 1, or 2, but 3 vort maxes in play. I’m going to be honest especially with the GFS model, It’s creating some very unrealistic movements with that northern piece of energy near Ohio by ejecting that straight east even though its pashing with that southern one near the Gulf States. Can that still happen? Of course but it’s on the low end of my scale right now. We really need a aircraft to sample the upper atmosphere in the next day or so to be ingested to these models so we can get a bit of better censuses. They did this for the storm occurring for MLK day and that’s why we had a major shift in the track to being much more inland.

    Overall Thoughts

    As it stands now for Friday into Saturday, we have a lot time to work out the kinks and we are going to be seeing some back and forth movement with solutions until we get these pieces of energy into range of observational data and or a aircraft to do research into the atmosphere the next 24 hours. I will be keeping a very close eye on this one that’s for sure.

  • Storm Signal Jan 16-17th / Winter Storm Looming?

    Storm Signal Jan 16-17th / Winter Storm Looming?

    GFS Model Showing Major Snowstorm

    Like I was mentioning yesterday, we are heading into a fairly volatile pattern to finish out the month of January. With the Polar vortex anchoring around the Hudson Bay, this will allow a persistent long wave trough across the Eastern half of the nation. And boy these long range models are showing a train of them to say the least. As of now there is no one solution in this matter. In fact there is two scenarios in which this system will go.

    Vorticity Forecast

    First off, This piece of energy will be associated with the northern stream jet-stream coming down from Canada. Which normally our coastal storms like to be coming from the sub-tropical jets stream from the south. But being this is diving deep down into the Gulf States, Its going to pay the southern stream a visit.

    Here’s the two scenarios we are looking at right now.

    Two possible outcomes for this storm the 16-17th
    ECMWF showing a suppressed solution

    Here’s the two possible outcomes I am seeing so far. All depends on two factors, one with the energy diving southward and becomes very suppressed by a strong area of high pressure over the Northeastern United States (Option 1). This will keep the storm very far south delivering some light snow to areas of the deep south. And a much weaker solution.

    GFS showing a major storm with scenario 2

    Option two would be a large snowstorm to start back over towards Missouri, plowing for the deep south and then intensify rapidly as a sub 980mb low off of our coasts. The high pressure system suppress the storm to the south and a very steep ridge over the western US allowing this piece of energy to become “negative tilted”.

    Both options are possible at this time, we just need to see more consistency in either direction to know that this is a false alarm or we got another big storm on our hands down the road.

  • Snowfall Forecast Thursday Night – Friday Morning *Updated*

    Snowfall Forecast Thursday Night – Friday Morning *Updated*

    Current Snowfall Accumulation Forecast

    We are not finished with the snow just yet. With a decent snow cover still on the ground to this date, more will be added beginning tomorrow night into the morning hours on Friday. This should not be a significant event like we saw on Monday, but enough to cause some roadway problems going into the Friday morning rush hour.

    Risk Analysis Regarding Snow & Travel Over The Next 3 Days

    With light to moderate accumulations on the table, there will be an area of sleet especially near Salisbury, Ocean City, and the Pocomoke City regions where temperatures will be flirting with the 32 degree mark. Locations further north will start out between 32 and 34 degrees before dropping down below freezing, once the precipitation arrives. Another instance of Dynamic Cooling will take place. This will be fairly wet snow just like last time, and it should not have a problem sticking to roadways.

    Model Consensus Is Fairly High On This Event
  • Snow May Be Returning Thurs-Fri To Delmarva

    Snow May Be Returning Thurs-Fri To Delmarva

    500MB height and vorticity

    If it wasn’t enough after our past major winter storm, more snow is looking to pay a visit once again overnight Thursday into Friday. Now do not start going into a frenzy thinking its going to be repeat with blizzard conditions, crazy thundersnow, and over 1 foot accumulations. This one is a very quick mover riding along the northern jet stream, not from the subtropical jet. So a massive amount of moisture will not be fed in from the Gulf of Mexico.

    Different Model Solutions For Thursday Night into Friday

    This storm system will be following a similar path like a clipper system would by riding along the northern jet stream. Ejecting down from the central plains moving due east. At this time this area of low pressure plans to slide just south of the Mid-Atlantic region. (If it didn’t then I would be wasting my time even talking about this) Model guidance has been fairly consistent of the low transferring to the coast near Virginia(Miller B). With the cold air already in place and the help with the current snowpack will help keep surface temperatures lower as well. RGEM/GFS has been the more robust solutions with new accumulations of around 6 inches. While the ECMWF/NAM giving us a nice additional 2-4 inch spread.

    Like i mention at this time it does not appear to be a extremely impactful system, but regardless looking to possibility bringing some more of the white stuff later this week. Still have plenty of kinks to work out and to wait for more of the short term model guidance to take a stab at this one going forward.

  • Snowfall Forecast For Monday (Updated (9:30pm)

    Snowfall Forecast For Monday (Updated (9:30pm)

    Snowfall Forecast Valid For Monday (Subject To Change)

    Do not let these warm conditions fool you of the arctic snap that’s on our doorsteps today. With a very significant shift in the forecast trending towards the potential biggest storm in the region since 2019. Around this time in 24 hours, we will see a 30-35 degree temperature drop once the arctic front settles in from the north to the region.

    Futurecast Radar

    The main focus mechanism will be a lobe breaking off from the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream that will begin to interact with the stalling out arctic front. The thermodynamic difference along this front will help generate a strong baroclinic forcing. An area of low pressure will begin to intensify later this evening and track just off the coast of the Carolinas. Moisture will then start running into the arctic air mass (overrunning) creating a fairly narrowband of moderate snow to overspread areas from central Virginia into the Delmarva region.

    500mb Vorticity Forecast ECMWF
    Excellent agreement between all model consensus

    For a rare set of parameters, there has been exceptional agreement between ALL model guidance regarding several inches of snow to the region. Some big contenders like the ECMWF (European model) showing some fairly significant snow to the region. GFS being the most robust out of all them showing a foot plus. Although that’s being really extreme and not likely at this time, but we have a great average of 4-8 blend with all the guidance at this time. Subject to chance of course for the difference in small fluctuations on axis and location.

    Winter Storm Warnings / Winter Weather Advisories

    I get a lot of questions and concerns when it comes to the sudden temperature drop and ground temperatures. On the first onset of precipitation, intensity will be key. Just because we were in the 60’s the last few days, falling snow can quickly cool off ground temperatures with the heavier intensity of snowfall. Same with roadways. Snow will be beginning to fall during the pre dawn hours and continue into the afternoon hours.

    Let’s not forget the night after if we have snow cover on the ground. With the arctic air mass settling in and fresh snow cover, temperatures will tank significantly during the overnight hours with clear skies. The snow will act as a blanket keeping the ground temperatures from warming the surface air temperature. Think of it like a cooler with ice in it, the air above the ice is extremely cold but underneath is above freezing. Depending on snow depth covering the ground, temperatures could drop down into the single digits.

    We will continue to provide updates on this potential winter storm going into tomorrow.