Tag: thunderstorms

  • Strong Thunderstorms Possible Across the Mid Atlantic This Afternoon

    Strong Thunderstorms Possible Across the Mid Atlantic This Afternoon

    A more active weather pattern is expected to unfold across the Mid Atlantic today as a disturbance moving out of the Great Lakes pushes toward the Ohio Valley and East Coast. Forecasters are monitoring the potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, especially across portions of Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and southern Pennsylvania.

    An upper level trough currently swinging southeast through the Great Lakes will help provide the energy needed for thunderstorm development later today. Early morning satellite and water vapor imagery already showed a lead disturbance tracking across southern Ohio into the central Appalachians, helping to spark areas of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the main system.

    At the surface, a frontal boundary draped across the region has been reshaped by ongoing morning rainfall and thunderstorms. As this boundary gradually slides southeast through the day, warm and humid air ahead of it will continue building instability across the Mid Atlantic. Dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s will create a very moisture rich atmosphere capable of supporting stronger storms by this afternoon.

    Clusters of thunderstorms to develop and move east southeastward later today. The primary threat with the strongest storms will be damaging wind gusts ranging from 50 to 65 mph, capable of bringing down tree limbs and causing isolated power outages. Some of the more intense storm cores may also produce small to marginally severe hail.

    While widespread severe weather is not expected, scattered strong storms could become locally intense during the peak heating hours this afternoon into early evening. Residents across the region should stay alert for rapidly changing weather conditions and be prepared for possible severe thunderstorm warnings later today.

    In addition to the wind threat, locally heavy rainfall may also accompany stronger storms given the humid environment already in place across the region.

  • Rain Threat Increases Across the Mid Atlantic Through the Weekend

    Rain Threat Increases Across the Mid Atlantic Through the Weekend

    A prolonged period of unsettled weather is expected to impact much of the Mid Atlantic beginning later this evening and continuing through Sunday, bringing multiple rounds of rain and the potential for localized flooding concerns.

    Rain showers will begin moving into the region from west to east this evening as a mild and moisture rich weather pattern remains in place. While rainfall tonight is expected to be generally light to moderate, coverage will increase overnight and into Saturday as a stronger system approaches.

    More widespread rain is forecast for Saturday and Saturday night as deeper moisture moves into the Mid Atlantic. Periods of steady rain are likely, with occasional heavier downpours. Embedded isolated thunderstorms are also possible during this time, which could briefly enhance rainfall rates in some areas.

    By Sunday, additional rounds of showers are expected to continue, keeping soils saturated and rivers on the rise. While rainfall amounts will vary by location, several areas could see one to two inches of rain by the end of the weekend, with locally higher totals where heavier showers or thunderstorms occur.

    Delmarva Region Faces Elevated Rain And Water Concerns

    Across the Delmarva Peninsula, including Delaware, eastern Maryland, and the Eastern Shore of Virginia, the rain threat will become more pronounced overnight and persist through the weekend. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are likely across much of the region, with isolated higher amounts possible.

    The combination of steady rain, mild temperatures, and ongoing snow and ice melt farther north could lead to noticeable rises on rivers, streams, and creeks. Low lying and poor drainage areas may be especially susceptible to ponding of water, particularly during periods of heavier rain.

    While widespread flooding is not currently expected, localized minor flooding cannot be ruled out, especially if thunderstorms produce brief heavy downpours. Urban areas and locations near small waterways should remain alert for changing conditions.

  • Periods of Rain Expected Across Delmarva Through the Weekend

    Periods of Rain Expected Across Delmarva Through the Weekend

    Residents across the Delmarva Peninsula should prepare for several rounds of rain as a series of weather systems move through the region from late Friday into early Sunday. While no significant flooding or severe weather is expected, the stretch will bring generally wet and mild conditions.

    The first system arrives late Friday as a weakening cold front moves into the Mid-Atlantic. This front is tied to an area of low pressure lifting north from the Great Lakes toward Quebec. Rain is expected to develop Friday afternoon and continue into Friday night. As the front weakens and gradually dissipates over the region, temperatures are not expected to drop noticeably, with little to no cold air pushing in behind it.

    A second, more impactful system follows on Saturday. A deepening upper-level trough moving south from Canada into the Great Lakes will help spawn a new surface low over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This low will track northeast, pushing a warm front northward across Delmarva on Saturday. As the warm front lifts through the region, rain coverage will increase and milder air will overspread the peninsula.

    Temperatures on Saturday may behave unusually, with some locations seeing their highest readings later in the day or even during the evening hours as warmer air moves in. Overnight temperatures may hold steady or even rise slightly in some areas. Overall, Saturday is expected to be a warm and wet day, with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to the low 60s.

    Heavier rain is expected to move in later Saturday as an initial cold front crosses the region. While a brief rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out due to some elevated instability in the atmosphere, no severe weather is anticipated. Showers may linger Saturday night until a secondary cold front moves through on Sunday morning. Behind that front, winds will increase, but the chance of wind gusts reaching advisory levels remains low.

    There is higher confidence that Delmarva will see periods of rain from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning, though exact rainfall totals remain uncertain. Most guidance suggests at least a half inch of rain, with some models indicating localized totals between 1.5 and 2 inches. The probability of receiving one inch or more of rain is around 40 to 60 percent, while the chance of exceeding two inches is low.

    Rainfall is expected to fall over a 36 to 48 hour period with breaks between systems, reducing the risk of flooding. With mild temperatures in place leading into the weekend, any remaining ice in streams or rivers should have already melted, allowing water to drain efficiently. Confidence in rainfall totals and timing is expected to improve as the weekend approaches.

  • Heavy Rains, Thunder, And High Winds On The Way Tonight Through Friday

    Heavy Rains, Thunder, And High Winds On The Way Tonight Through Friday

    A strong cold front is expected to move through the region later this evening, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, with the potential for a few embedded thunderstorms. Ahead of the front, a surge of unseasonably warm air continues to advance up the East Coast, allowing afternoon temperatures to rise into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.

    ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
    SATURDAY...
    
    * WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
      expected Thursday night through Friday morning. Winds turn to the
      northwest behind a strong cold front Friday afternoon. There may
      be a lull in the strongest wind gusts around midday Friday before
      the cold front passes through the region. Wind gusts in the wake
      of the front up to 50 MPH are possible.
    
    * WHERE...In Delaware, Delaware Beaches County. In New Jersey,
      Eastern Monmouth, Western Monmouth, Atlantic, Atlantic Coastal
      Cape May, Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Ocean, and
      Southeastern Burlington Counties.
    
    * WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday.
    
    * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
      limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
    profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

    As the frontal boundary approaches, winds will strengthen significantly, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible across portions of New England and the Mid-Atlantic. A Wind Advisory is in effect for several areas. Rainfall totals are currently forecast to range between 0.50 and 1.50 inches, which will be beneficial in helping to alleviate ongoing drought conditions across much of the eastern United States.

    The sharp temperature gradient associated with the frontal passage may provide enough atmospheric instability to support a narrow line of embedded thunderstorms. Within this line, a strong low-level jet could allow isolated stronger wind gusts to mix down to the surface. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, localized areas may experience brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

    Behind the front, gusty conditions will persist through Friday, with winds continuing to gust between 40 and 50 mph at times. Skies will gradually clear as cooler air filters into the region, bringing a return to sunshine and more seasonable temperatures.

  • Severe Weather On Tap For Monday Evening Across Delmarva

    Severe Weather On Tap For Monday Evening Across Delmarva

    Strong to severe thunderstorms remain on tap as we venture into the afternoon and evening hours today as a strong cold front advances from the west. A “Slight Risk” of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center laid across all of the Mid-Atlantic today.

    Looking at satellite this morning over towards our west a nice blanket of sunshine moving into the region to help destabilize the atmosphere with surface heating as temperatures are expected to be well into the 70s as dew points surge into the 60s to have plenty of moisture in place. Well suited for thunderstorm develop later today.

    The first round of storms will begin to develop across the Maryland Western shore around the mid-afternoon hours (4-5PM) which will have the highest chances of larger hail or even an isolated tornado being discrete in nature. Later in the evening hours as the cold front arrives, a squall line likely to develop with the primary threat of damaging straight line winds. Although a quick spin up in the line is always a possibility but those probabilities remain on the low side of things.

    As mentioned before, the primary threat for the storms this afternoon will be indeed damaging straight line winds from the main squall line that moves through towards the evening hours from 7-10PM. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph are possible with the strongest portions of the line. Heavy rainfall from the squall line of 1-3″/hr could lead to some localized flooding in spots. During the mid afternoon hours when a few discrete cells form will have the best shot of large hail to 1″ or locally larger. Tornado threat remains low but not impossible for the first cells to develop in the afternoon hours and then again in the line itself.

  • Severe Weather Awareness Week Day 4: Lightning Safety

    Severe Weather Awareness Week Day 4: Lightning Safety

    There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area. If you hear thunder, you are likely within striking distance of the storm. Just remember, When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. Too many people wait far too long to get to a safe place when thunderstorms approach. Unfortunately, these delayed actions lead to many of the lightning deaths and injuries in the United States.

    Lightning is a giant spark of electricity in the atmosphere or between the atmosphere and the ground. In the initial stages of development, air acts as an insulator between the positive and negative charges in the cloud and between the cloud and the ground; however, when the differences in charges becomes too great, this insulating capacity of the air breaks down and there is a rapid discharge of electricity that we know as lightning. There’s so much to learn about lightning.

    Lightning kills about 20 people each year in the United States and hundreds more are injured. Some survivors suffer lifelong neurological damage. Here’s more information on the victims and the survivors.

  • Severe Weather And High Winds Possible Again This Weekend On Delmarva

    Severe Weather And High Winds Possible Again This Weekend On Delmarva

    Once again another powerful storm system is expected to develop across the central lower 48 later this week posing a widespread multi-day severe weather outbreak with damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and another high wind event impacting millions across the country. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a “Slight Risk” of severe weather across the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday for thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds along a powerful cold front to swipe through the area.

    Although areas across Delmarva and the surrounding areas will escape the extreme brunt of the severe weather, gusty thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours on Saturday where we have surface temperatures well above average into the lower 70s, sufficient moisture with dew points in the 60s, and not to mention the amount of wind shear available. Although the details remain unclear on the severity of the damaging winds or a tornado threat at this time, we will continue to monitor the threat as time gets closer.

    With or without the presence of thunderstorms, strong non-thunderstorm winds will become a problem yet again with wind gusts 40-60 MPH are very possible when this front arrives. Enough to cause more issues with down tree limbs and sporadic power outages. Thunderstorms will only enhance the wind threat more similar to what we seen from last weeks event.

    With a strong low level Jetstream reaching 50-70mph at 5000ft, some of those stronger winds could reach down to the surface at times with the gusty showers and embedded thunderstorms. We will continue to monitor the latest forecast trends as we approach closer towards the weekend.

  • Major Storm System Across The Country Next Week: High Winds & Severe Weather

    Major Storm System Across The Country Next Week: High Winds & Severe Weather

    A major storm system is on the way across the Central Plains towards the East Coast bringing a plethora of heavy rain, severe weather and high winds. A severe weather risk from Tuesday-Wednesday where approximately 60 million people are in the threat regions for damaging winds, large hail, and the threat for tornadoes

    The Storm Prediction Center center highlighting a 30% severe weather risk across Northern Lousiana towards Western Kentucky with a large 15% risk from Illinois towards the Gulf Coast Tuesday. Extending into the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast US on Wednesday. SPC Meteorologist Jeremy Kerr had this to say about the storm threat next week.

    ” Spread typical at this extended time frame (day 5) lingers among the
    various model output concerning the sub-synoptic, and even synoptic,
    details across the southeastern Great Plains through Ohio Valley and
    Southeast, which may considerably impact the severe weather risk
    area and potential. However, the medium-range guidance depicts an
    environment at least conditionally supportive of an organized severe
    weather event, including potential for a few strong tornadoes and
    damaging straight line winds.

    It is possible, but perhaps a bit more uncertain, that this could
    continue across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard
    on Wednesday.”

    While the threat for severe weather isn’t enough, this system will be quite the wind maker as well. A powerful Jetstream combined with a strong low level Jetstream of 60-80kts. Providing a lot of wind energy down towards the surface. And with the presence of thunderstorms, that wind threat may increase even more going forward.

    As of now winds gusting 45-60 MPH are not out of the question come Wednesday which may lead to more episodes of down trees, and sporadic power outages. In the event of thunderstorms are in the mix, winds could become locally stronger bringing some of those powerful winds down to the surface.

  • Washout Of A Weekend On The Way For The Delmarva Region

    Washout Of A Weekend On The Way For The Delmarva Region

    If you were hoping to have a nice weekend ahead with good weather, this is not the weekend for it. Although the rain is welcomed and very beneficial for the ongoing extreme drought we are in, makes for plans to be remaining indoors. Rain will begin to move into the region during the afternoon hours on Saturday as a warm front lifts through. Rain will be heavy at times after dark through the morning hours.

    There will be a lull in the precipitation heading into the later morning hours on Sunday but we will see a noticeable increase in temperatures surging into the mid 60s. A cold front will be arriving later in the after hours bringing back the heavy rainfall and maybe even a few gusty thunderstorms are possible.

    The Storm Prediction center already highlighting a “Marginal” risk of severe weather for the afternoon hours on Sunday as a potential thing line of storms may form along the cold front. Although not expecting widespread thunderstorm development, a few rogue storms are not out of the question.

    Rainfall on the order of 1-2 inches is very plausible before tapering off Sunday night across the region. Might be some low lying area flooding with the recent rainfall events and the major snow melt from a few days ago.