Investment firms made a massive $760 million wager against oil prices just 20 minutes before Iran’s foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial vessels on Friday, marking another instance of suspiciously timed commodity trades during Middle East tensions.
The enormous bet has sparked fresh concerns among U.S. lawmakers and legal analysts that some traders may be gaining unfair advantages in volatile derivatives markets through advance knowledge of diplomatic and military decisions.
Market data from LSEG shows that between 12:24 and 12:25 GMT, investors dumped a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude futures contracts. At prevailing prices, these transactions totaled approximately $760 million in value.
Twenty minutes later at 12:45 GMT, Iran’s foreign minister posted on social media platform X that commercial ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz would remain completely open during the ceasefire period, consistent with the Lebanon ceasefire agreement.
Oil prices plummeted as much as 11% within minutes of the announcement, generating substantial profits for those who had sold futures contracts shortly before.
This incident follows a pattern of well-timed oil trades preceding major Middle East developments. Reuters previously reported that approximately $950 million in bets occurred just hours before the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire on April 7. Similarly, on March 23, investors sold $500 million worth of oil futures merely 15 minutes before President Donald Trump announced he would postpone attacks on Iran’s energy facilities, causing crude prices to drop 15%.
A source familiar with the matter revealed Wednesday that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is actively investigating multiple oil futures transactions, including the March 23 and April 7 trades, that occurred shortly before Trump administration policy announcements regarding the Iran conflict.
The recurring pattern of large-scale oil trades immediately preceding major geopolitical announcements has heightened scrutiny of potential insider trading in commodity markets during times of international crisis.
