Skyrocketing fuel costs linked to the ongoing Iran war are giving electric vehicle sales across Europe a significant boost, according to industry data obtained by Reuters — though some auto industry leaders caution that the momentum may not hold if gas prices retreat.
Experts in the field point to improvements in charging networks and a new wave of more budget-friendly EV models — including vehicles from Chinese manufacturers — as factors helping electric cars become more accessible to everyday consumers.
Although the United States and Iran have agreed to an extended ceasefire, disruptions to shipping mean oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz could take weeks to return to normal levels, keeping fuel prices elevated for the foreseeable future.
Research group New Automotive and industry organization E-Mobility Europe shared data with Reuters showing new electric vehicle registrations climbed 34% compared to the same period last year in May, covering 17 markets that represent more than 90% of car sales across the European Union and European Free Trade Association.
Fully electric models made up nearly one out of every four new vehicle registrations in those markets.
Renault CEO Francois Provost told Reuters last week that the automaker’s EV order book has grown by 50% in certain countries since the Iran conflict began in late February. However, he predicted that growth “will decrease” should fuel prices come back down.
Ford’s Europe chief Jim Baumbick acknowledged that the war has “increased customers’ interest” in EVs, but urged caution about viewing the trend as a permanent change in consumer behavior.
The conflict has coincided with a broader push by automakers to introduce less expensive electric vehicles in Europe, tackling one of the biggest obstacles to wider adoption — the higher purchase price compared to traditional gas-powered cars.
Chinese automakers are moving beyond larger vehicle segments and into smaller hatchbacks aimed at European buyers. BYD launched its Dolphin G model in Berlin last week as part of that expansion.
Andy Palmer, a former Nissan executive who helped bring the mass-market Leaf EV to consumers, commented: “Consumer interest in EVs is clearly stimulated by low-cost, very good Chinese cars arriving on the market.”
The used EV market is also heating up. Online marketplace OLX reported that sales leads for Chinese-brand vehicles in France surged more than fourfold in May compared to a year earlier.
German online marketplace Carwow, which tracks both new and used vehicles, said consumer interest in EVs — measured through vehicle configurations and purchase inquiries — has leveled off at between 70% and 75%, a notable jump from roughly 40% earlier this year.
Philipp Sayler von Amende, managing director of Carwow Germany, said: “This development has long since evolved from a short-term effect to a sustainable trend.”
Used electric vehicles are also attracting buyers with their relatively low price tags. Tesla’s aggressive price cuts in 2023 significantly dragged down resale values across the used EV market, though those prices are now beginning to inch back up as demand grows stronger.
Danish used-car platform Bilbasen anticipates used EV prices will rise by about 10% this year.
At present, used electric vehicles remain less expensive than comparable gas-powered models. In Britain, two- to four-year-old EVs are selling for roughly 33% of their original purchase price, compared to 52% for fossil-fuel vehicles, according to dealer services firm Cox Automotive.
Cox’s insight director Philip Nothard said the growing availability of affordable new and pre-owned EVs should help keep demand strong even if fuel prices ease. “The market should stabilise,” he said. “I very much doubt that we’ll see a downturn.”
