WASHINGTON – As November’s midterm elections approach, Republican campaign strategists are shifting their electoral approach in response to President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings and mounting challenges including elevated gas prices and the ongoing Iran conflict.
The revised strategy focuses on leveraging Trump’s ability to energize voters while avoiding making the 79-year-old president the central figure of congressional campaigns.
During a private gathering this week with senior conservative campaign leaders, Trump’s key political advisors – White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, political chief James Blair, and veteran pollster Tony Fabrizio – presented a framework emphasizing Republican tax reduction measures and anti-inflation initiatives, according to four sources with knowledge of the session.
However, party strategists are concerned that Trump’s weakening political standing could damage candidates in contested congressional districts. Republicans face significant challenges maintaining their House majority and increasingly risk losing Senate control.
Growing unease among GOP operatives suggests Trump’s presidency and political influence may be weakening, according to three sources plus an experienced Republican campaign consultant who requested anonymity to discuss confidential meetings and provide frank evaluations.
Trump remains locked in a stalemate with Iran, as both military actions and diplomatic initiatives have failed to achieve denuclearization of the Islamic Republic or reopen the Strait of Hormuz after two months of warfare. Climbing fuel costs – averaging nearly $4 per gallon nationally according to AAA – threaten to offset benefits from Republican tax policies included in the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” Trump’s second-term legislative centerpiece.
A Reuters/Ipsos survey shows just 36% of Americans approve of Trump’s presidential performance, marking his lowest rating this term. Many Americans, including some Republicans, express concerns about the president’s temperament and mental acuity following several public outbursts.
“[Democrats] are going to try to nationalize the election and say we’re a rubber stamp for Trump,” a Trumpworld political strategist told Reuters. “We have to break out of that and show race by race why we’re the better choice.”
Within the president’s political organization, confidence remains high regarding Trump’s messaging effectiveness. Republican National Committee national press secretary Kiersten Pels stated Trump would continue as “the most powerful driver” of conservative voter participation in midterms, noting candidates actively pursue his endorsement.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales described Trump as the “unequivocal leader of the Republican party and he is committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress.”
FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOCAL CONCERNS OVER TRUMP
Monday’s meeting at the Waldorf Astoria, formerly Trump’s upscale Washington hotel, began with coffee and pastries as Trump’s team required attendees to sign confidentiality agreements before predicting Republican victory in Virginia’s redistricting vote. Sources described an optimistic atmosphere.
Information from the meeting emerged quickly. Virginia voters subsequently approved new congressional maps drawn by Democrats to benefit their party in November.
“If the people framing this approach are confident about Virginia and they get beat in Virginia, you have to question, are they overconfident about the whole package?” one meeting attendee observed.
Some Republican insiders emphasize that months remain before elections, allowing significant changes before voting begins. Reduced Iranian hostilities could lower gas prices and broader inflation.
“The panic is people looking at things right now, but I think the key is to project where it could be over the summer, and it’s still very fluid,” said David McIntosh, president of the Trump-aligned Club for Growth.
Initially, Republicans planned promoting Trump as the party’s standard-bearer and the leader who, using his frequently repeated phrase, made the U.S. “the hottest country anywhere in the world.”
Wiles announced in December that Republicans would revolutionize traditional midterm tactics by placing Trump “on the ballot” instead of distancing themselves from the sitting president.
Sources indicate this approach now appears less appealing. Republicans will emphasize local concerns rather than presidential loyalty.
“The politics have changed,” said another meeting participant. “In January, nationalizing the race around him made some sense.
“Voters don’t feel the president is doing enough to make their lives cheaper, but they still believe Republicans want to do that,” the person said.
The Trumpworld strategist noted the Democratic Party’s low popularity provides Republicans an effective contrast for policy proposals.
Trump’s declining support could offer Democrats opportunities to link Republican candidates with presidential weaknesses, making some conservative campaign professionals question the White House’s political strategy.
After campaigning in 2024 against “stupid wars” while presenting himself as a “peace president,” Trump now oversees the largest U.S. military engagement since Iraq’s 2003 invasion.
Critics argue Trump’s administration inadequately considered Iranian responses to joint U.S.-Israeli attacks or massive economic consequences, including unprecedented global energy disruptions and worldwide financial recession threats.
Trump’s Tuesday decision to indefinitely extend an originally two-week ceasefire appeared as a withdrawal, with Tehran retaining Strait of Hormuz control and nuclear program commitment.
Aaron David Miller, former Middle East negotiator for both Democratic and Republican administrations, believes Iran considers itself advantaged with the crucial oil shipping route while better able to withstand economic hardship than Trump.
“The Iranians think Trump’s tolerance for an economic and political price is limited,” said Miller, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “They’re prepared to wait him out.”
