Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs has revised downward its oil price projections for the second quarter of 2026, cutting estimates to $90 per barrel for Brent crude and $87 for U.S. crude following Wednesday’s announcement of a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
The financial institution had previously anticipated Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil would reach average prices of $99 and $91 per barrel respectively during that period.
“Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH (Strait of Hormuz), we nudge down our Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI,” the investment bank explained in its research note.
Oil markets have experienced significant volatility this week, with Brent crude declining more than 11% amid optimism that the strategically important Strait of Hormuz shipping lane could reopen following President Donald Trump’s agreement to the two-week ceasefire with Iranian leadership.
Despite the overall weekly decline, oil prices climbed during Thursday’s early Asian trading hours as market participants expressed skepticism about whether Middle Eastern oil production would return to full capacity, given uncertainty about the durability of the ceasefire and ongoing restrictions in the critical waterway.
For the latter half of 2026, Goldman Sachs maintained its price projections at $82 and $80 per barrel for Brent crude in the third and fourth quarters, while forecasting WTI at $77 and $75 respectively.
The investment bank cautioned that upward pressure on prices remains the primary risk to their forecasts, citing possibilities of extended supply disruptions and continued production shortfalls from crude-producing nations.
Should the ceasefire collapse and Middle Eastern oil production losses persist at approximately 2 million barrels daily, Goldman Sachs warned that Brent crude could surge to an average of $115 per barrel during the fourth quarter.
