ATLANTA — This year’s World Cup features a larger field than ever before, with 48 teams split into 12 first-round groups. While the top two teams from each group automatically move on, there’s also a lifeline for the eight best third-place finishers — meaning more teams than in previous years have a shot at reaching the last 32.
As matches get underway across Canada, Mexico, and the United States, fans and analysts alike are starting to crunch the numbers: just how many points does a team need to survive the group stage?
This is only the second time FIFA has run a World Cup with this many teams. The first was last November’s U-17 World Cup held in Qatar, so there isn’t much historical precedent to draw from at this specific scale.
However, the concept of third-place teams advancing is nothing new. It dates back to the 1986 World Cup in Mexico, when the four best third-place finishers from six groups were allowed to move into the knockout rounds alongside the top two from each group.
A review of 38 FIFA tournaments and continental championships that used a 24-team format — where four spots were available for the top third-place finishers — sheds some light on what point totals have historically been enough to advance.
BREAKING DOWN THE POINT THRESHOLDS
Five points: No team that has earned five points from three group games has ever finished outside the top two in their group. Five points is essentially a guarantee of advancement.
Four points: Only twice has a team with four points in third place failed to advance, and both of those cases came at the U-20 World Cup. Interestingly, Norway finished last in their 1994 World Cup group despite collecting four points, and Ukraine experienced the same fate at the most recent European Championship in Germany two years ago.
Three points: Teams finishing with three points have a slightly less than 50% chance of advancing, and almost all of those who do make it carry a positive goal difference. A negative goal difference alongside three points drops the odds to below one in three. One notable exception came at the 2019 U-20 World Cup, when Norway was eliminated despite a goal difference of plus-eight — a tally that included a 12-0 win over Honduras in which Erling Haaland scored nine goals. At last year’s 48-team U-17 World Cup in Qatar, four of the six third-place teams with three points did advance.
Two points: Across the tournaments reviewed that used three points for a win, only two teams ever advanced as one of the best third-place finishers with just two points. The most recent example was Tanzania at the Africa Cup of Nations held in Morocco late last year.
