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Tag: winter

  • Unsettled Weekend Weather Possible Across Delmarva As Coastal System Develops With Snow Threat

    Unsettled Weekend Weather Possible Across Delmarva As Coastal System Develops With Snow Threat

    Residents across the Delmarva region will want to stay weather aware this weekend as multiple rounds of precipitation are possible, including the potential for snow. Forecast confidence remains moderate to low, but the overall pattern supports unsettled conditions from Saturday through Sunday night.

    A broad area of low pressure aloft, known as a longwave trough, will settle over the eastern United States this weekend. Several smaller disturbances moving through this pattern will help generate periods of precipitation, beginning early Saturday and possibly continuing into Sunday night.

    The first system is expected to move through Saturday morning and appears to be relatively weak. Precipitation may begin near or shortly after daybreak, when temperatures are at their coldest. Some locations could see a brief mix or light snow at the onset, especially inland areas, before temperatures rise through the morning. As daytime heating and weak warm air move in, most of Delmarva should transition to light rain. Any snow accumulation during this first round is expected to be minimal, with little more than a trace for most areas. Overall precipitation amounts should remain under a tenth of an inch.

    Attention then turns to a second system that could develop offshore late Sunday into Sunday night. This system carries more uncertainty and higher potential impacts, depending largely on how close the surface low tracks to the coast. Recent forecast guidance has shown a slight shift toward a closer approach, which has increased the chance for precipitation across the region, especially near coastal areas.

    With a cold front moving through Saturday night, colder air will be in place on Sunday. If the offshore low tracks close enough, much of the precipitation could fall as snow, particularly during the latter half of Sunday and into Sunday night. At this time, the probability of seeing measurable snow across coastal Delmarva is around 35 to 50 percent (of greater than 1″), with lower chances farther inland. The likelihood of higher snowfall amounts remains low, but it cannot be ruled out if the storm trends closer to the coast.

    While confidence has increased slightly compared to earlier forecasts, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the exact track and strength of this system. Residents across Delmarva should continue to monitor the forecast through the weekend, as small changes in storm position could significantly impact precipitation type and amounts.

    More updates will be provided as forecast confidence improves.

  • Winter Uncertainty Towards The Late Week; Social Media Hype Is Crazy Right Now

    Winter Uncertainty Towards The Late Week; Social Media Hype Is Crazy Right Now

    Forecast guidance continues to signal the potential for a disruptive winter weather pattern later this week, mainly from Wednesday through Friday, as an upper level low strengthens over the Lower Great Lakes and moves toward the Northeast. This system is expected to bring an increase in wintry precipitation across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, the central Appalachians, and portions of the interior Northeast, with colder air also setting the stage for lake effect snow in typical snowbelt regions.

    However, confidence in the overall setup remains low. Key details such as the exact placement and strength of the upper level low are still uncertain, which will ultimately determine where the heaviest precipitation develops. There is also considerable question surrounding coastal low development, including whether it forms too late, remains weak, or tracks well offshore. Recent trends as of today favor a later developing system that stays farther out to sea, which would significantly limit impacts for much of the I-95 corridor.

    The primary question for Delmarva centers on whether a coastal low is able to develop in time and close enough to influence the region. Current guidance shows large spread in both timing and track, with recent trends favoring a system that forms too late and remains well offshore. If this trend holds, meaningful winter weather impacts across Delaware, eastern Maryland, and Virginia’s Eastern Shore would be limited or possibly avoided altogether.

    Because of these uncertainties, forecast impacts to travel and infrastructure remain unclear at this time. While some wintry weather is possible inland, especially across higher elevations and areas closer to the Great Lakes, any coastal impacts would depend on how quickly and how close a coastal low can organize. Forecast confidence should improve over the next few days as the system comes into better range of higher resolution models.

  • January Thaw Ongoing For Now, Winter Making A Return Towards Next Week

    January Thaw Ongoing For Now, Winter Making A Return Towards Next Week

    With days as of this past week constantly being int he 50’s and even 60’s, many wonder where did winter go? Normally in the winter months across the lower 48 go through a longer duration warming trend as a recharge of the overall pattern and sign are pointing at a return to more winter weather moving back across the eastern half of the US.

    Weather models are all onboard for a bigger shift in the overall weather pattern across the Northern Hemisphere Mainly what’s going on across the Pacific Ocean which is the biggest driver to the Lower 48 weather pattern for supplying the cold air and the active storm track. One thing that is peaking my interests is a significant drop in the Eastern Pacific Oscillation during the time period of the 14th-20th.

    A very large negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation, or EPO, is a significant large scale weather pattern that can strongly influence temperature and storm tracks across the United States, especially during the fall and winter months.

    When the EPO is strongly negative, a powerful ridge of high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific, often near Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. This ridge acts as a blocking feature, forcing the jet stream to buckle sharply northward into Alaska and then dive southward downstream into western and central North America. As a result, Arctic air is displaced south out of Canada and into the United States.

    For the western United States, a negative EPO often brings colder than normal temperatures, particularly to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. The ridge offshore can suppress precipitation along parts of the West Coast, leading to drier conditions in California, while the colder air aloft supports snow in the higher elevations of the Northwest and Intermountain West when storms are able to undercut the ridge.

    Across the central and eastern United States, the downstream response to a negative EPO is often a broad trough, which allows cold air to spill southward. This can lead to below normal temperatures across the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast. When moisture is available, this pattern can be favorable for winter storms, as cold air at the surface can interact with southern stream systems or coastal lows.

    The strength of the negative EPO matters. A weak negative phase may only produce brief or modest cold shots, while a strongly negative EPO can support prolonged cold outbreaks, sometimes reaching deep into the southern United States. This setup can also increase the likelihood of sharp temperature swings if the blocking ridge eventually breaks down.

    Weather across the Eastern US might get very interesting going forward into the mid-month.

  • Winter Takes a Break Across The Country But For How Long?

    Winter Takes a Break Across The Country But For How Long?

    The month of December brought well below average temperatures across much of the Mid-Atlantic region. Averaging as much as 4 to 6 degrees below normal. Putting impacts on energy costs already this early into the season but we are looking to see some relief on those heating bills over the next week. starting Tuesday, we flip the switch from being the freezer to being able to thaw out in a big way.

    Throughout the rest of this week, we are about to go from January weather to what i would say be ;ate October weather as we start cranking up to the 50s. Eventually towards the weekend we are even crossing the 60s threshold. Which is going to feel quite nice after being stuck every day in the 30s. But the real question lies, how long will this warm up will last?

    It appears this will be a week long warm up with the warmest time frame appearing closer to the weekend with highs approaching the mid 60s. But also bring the onset of rain chances as a storm system will be lifting up towards the Great Lakes area. But towards the mid-month, signs are pointing to a return of the west coast ridge allowing for troughs to extend east towards the Mid-Atlantic to bring back more seasonable temperatures. Cold air intrusion would be possible after the 15th when this occurs so that’s when any snow chances would return as of now.

    Enjoy the warmth and thaw while it last as we still have a whole lot of winter to get through!

  • Snowfall Forecast Across Delmarva Weds-Thurs Feb 19-20th

    Snowfall Forecast Across Delmarva Weds-Thurs Feb 19-20th

    A very difficult forecast remains in place as small portions of Delmarva are under the gun for a significant winter storm. A massive shift in the overall storm track the last 24-48 hours taking what would have been a widespread severe winter storm to more of a nuisance across northern and central Delmarva. And quite honestly one of the biggest failures of all numerical models I have seen thus far in my 15 years of doing this. From having a universal 100% trend for days and days with all the medium range guidance to a 200-300 mile shift south over the weekend is mind boggling.

    NBM blends continue to drop across areas of Central Delmarva where there will be a sharp cut off from the northern axis of precipitation. Light accumulations are expected through these areas while further south in Accomack and Northampton counties are still in great shape of significant accumulations of 6 inches or more.

    NAM Model
    GFS Model

    Of course there has to be one that wants to throw a wrench into the mix and that is the NAM model which wants to shift back north again bringing the pain of widespread significant snowfall. Although the NAM is on this ship alone which at this point in the game is the major outlier. Especially for the fact of bringing 17 inches snow across Salisbury, MD which was the original outputs before the weekend timeframe with all the guidance. Just not feasible anymore at this late in the game. Unless the NAM is seeing something that we don’t. Which i doubt is the case.

    NOAA’s WSSI Index highlighting moderate to major impacts from this winter storm across Accomack and Northampton counties.

    In the National Weather Service’s Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI), the “Major Impacts” category indicates potentially life-threatening conditions and significant disruptions to daily life and infrastructure.

    Key Characteristics of “Major Impacts”:

    • Travel may become dangerous or impossible due to heavy snow, ice accumulation, or blizzard conditions.
    • Widespread power outages are likely, especially with ice storms or strong winds.
    • Infrastructure and emergency response may be severely strained, with delayed or limited emergency services.
    • Potential closures of roads, schools, and businesses due to hazardous conditions.
    • Risk to life and property, particularly for those caught in extreme conditions without proper preparation.

    This level is just below the most severe category, “Extreme Impacts,” but still signifies a high-impact winter storm that requires preparation and caution.

  • Historic Arctic Outbreak and Potential Severe Winter Storm Poised to Impact Central and Eastern U.S. Next Week

    Historic Arctic Outbreak and Potential Severe Winter Storm Poised to Impact Central and Eastern U.S. Next Week

    A robust Arctic air mass is forecast to plunge into the Central U.S. next week, bringing widespread record-breaking low temperatures and dangerously low wind chills. Meteorologists indicate high confidence in this event, with numerous daily minimum temperature records expected to be set from the central Plains to the south-central U.S. between Tuesday and Friday. Some locations may approach or exceed their lowest recorded temperatures for this late in the winter season, with the freeze line potentially reaching as far south as the Gulf Coast.

    Hazardous Wind Chill Conditions Expected

    Accompanying the frigid temperatures, dangerously low wind chills ranging from -30°F to -60°F are expected across the northern Plains, persisting for several days. These conditions significantly increase the risk of frostbite and hypothermia with even brief exposure. Sub-zero wind chills are forecast to extend southward into Texas, Arkansas, and portions of western Tennessee and Kentucky, posing a widespread risk to public safety and infrastructure.

    Increased Potential for Winter Storm and Heavy Snowfall

    In addition to the Arctic outbreak, there is an increasing probability of a significant severe winter storm forming along the periphery of the cold air mass. While the specific track and intensity remain uncertain, current model guidance suggests that areas from the central Plains and the Ozarks to Kentucky through potentially the Northeast U.S. corridor could experience a highly impactful snowfall. Given the dynamic nature of winter storm development, continued monitoring of forecasts is essential as the system evolves.

    Model guidance continues to grow higher confidence of a severe winter storm with snowfall amounts exceeding 10 inches is becoming more of a reality. NBM probability outputs show very highly probabilities of >60% for 6 inches or more of snowfall with going as far as >30% chance of 12 inches or more of snowfall.

  • Polar Vortex Split Bringing Arctic Outbreak Starting Next Week

    Polar Vortex Split Bringing Arctic Outbreak Starting Next Week

    A significant meteorological event is poised to impact the contiguous United States next week, as the stratospheric polar vortex undergoes a rare split, leading to an arctic outbreak with temperatures projected to plummet 20 to 40 degrees below normal between February 17th and 23rd.

    Understanding the Polar Vortex Split

    The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding both of Earth’s poles, residing in the stratosphere. Typically, this vortex remains stable, containing the cold air within the polar regions. However, certain atmospheric conditions can disrupt this stability, leading to a phenomenon known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). During an SSW, large-scale atmospheric waves, called Rossby waves, propagate into the stratosphere, weakening the polar vortex. If these waves are strong enough, they can cause the vortex to split into two or more smaller vortices. This split allows frigid polar air to descend into mid-latitude regions, including parts of the United States.

    Projected Temperature Anomalies

    Forecast models, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Global Forecast System (GFS), indicate that one of the split vortex cores will migrate over North America. This movement is expected to usher in a significant cold air outbreak across the northern, central, and eastern United States. Temperature anomalies during this period are projected to range from 20 to 40 degrees below normal.

    Potential for Increased Winter Storm Activity

    The influx of arctic air sets the stage for enhanced winter storm development. As the cold air interacts with warmer, moisture-laden systems from the south, the likelihood of snow, ice, and mixed precipitation events increases. Regions across the central and eastern U.S. should prepare for potential winter storms during this period, with the possibility of significant snowfall and hazardous travel conditions.

    Preparing for the Arctic Outbreak

    Residents are advised to monitor local weather forecasts and heed warnings from meteorological authorities. Preparations should include:

    • Ensuring adequate heating supplies and checking the functionality of heating systems.
    • Stocking up on essential items in anticipation of potential disruptions.
    • Taking necessary precautions for vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with health conditions.
    • Preparing vehicles for winter conditions, including checking antifreeze levels and ensuring tires are suitable for snow and ice.

    By staying informed and taking proactive measures, individuals and communities can mitigate the impacts of this impending arctic outbreak.

  • Wintry Mix Threatens Central and Northern Delmarva Again with Ice Accretion and Slick Travel This Weekend

    Wintry Mix Threatens Central and Northern Delmarva Again with Ice Accretion and Slick Travel This Weekend

    A complex winter weather system is set to impact portions of central and northern Delmarva, bringing a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain as temperatures hover near the freezing mark towards early Saturday afternoon. This system will create hazardous travel conditions, especially in areas where freezing rain leads to ice accretion.

    Weather Setup and Model Guidance

    Latest guidance from the ICON, GFS, and ECMWF suggests that cold air at the surface will remain entrenched across northern Delmarva, allowing for a prolonged period of wintry precipitation before a gradual changeover to rain. Meanwhile, high-resolution CAMS guidance, including the HRW-WRF & NAM12KM, continues to highlight higher localized areas of ice accumulation, particularly in northern regions where cold air remains stubborn.

    As the system moves through, precipitation is expected to start as a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across northern and central Delmarva, with surface temperatures struggling to rise above 32°F. By early afternoon, warmer air aloft will cause much of central Delmarva to transition to plain rain, while northern Delmarva may see continued ice accretion before the system exits early Sunday.

    Potential Ice Accretion and Travel Hazards

    • Ice Accumulation: Up to 0.10” of ice is possible across northern & central Delmarva, with localized higher amounts in areas where freezing rain persists.
    • Travel Impacts: Slick roadways and hazardous conditions are expected, particularly on bridges and overpasses. Untreated surfaces may become icy and dangerous.
    • Timing: The wintry mix will continue through early afternoon, with a gradual transition to rain in central Delmarva through the evening hours. Northern areas may hold onto freezing rain longer before precipitation moves out early Sunday morning.

    Stay Weather Aware

    Residents across central and northern Delmarva should stay updated with the latest forecasts, as even small changes in temperature could impact precipitation type and ice accumulation. If traveling, exercise caution and allow extra time, especially in areas where freezing rain may linger.

  • Potential Winter Storm Threat Looming Early Next Week

    Potential Winter Storm Threat Looming Early Next Week

    Just when it seemed like winter might be winding down, another round of winter weather is on the horizon. After a brief break from bitter cold and snow, forecast models indicate that winter storm threats will return next week, affecting the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. This won’t be just one isolated storm, but several waves of wintry weather are expected. This setup is similar to the major winter storm we experienced in early January, featuring a classic “overrunning” pattern, which often produces significant snowfall in our region. But what exactly is an overrunning winter storm?

    An overrunning winter storm occurs when warm, moisture-laden air moves over a colder, denser air mass at the surface, leading to prolonged periods of wintry precipitation. This happens when warm air from the south collides with cold air entrenched to the north. Unlike last time, however, this system is being driven by a strong Arctic high-pressure system, rather than a blocking low-pressure system to the north. Scientifically, this process is known as Isentropic Ascent—a term used to describe how air is lifted along a temperature gradient.

    ICON Model Output
    ECMWF Model Output
    UKMET Model Output
    CMC Model Output

    Current mid-range model guidance (GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, ICON) consistently shows an overrunning event with multiple waves of low pressure traveling along a stalled frontal boundary. A strong high-pressure system (1038-1040mb) will provide ample cold air north of this boundary, while incoming warm, moist air will fuel heavy precipitation. The exact position of the frontal boundary will determine whether areas experience heavy snow, plain rain, or, in the worst-case scenario, significant icing. Overrunning setups are notorious for producing dangerous ice storms, as cold air remains locked at the surface while warm air aloft causes precipitation to fall as freezing rain or sleet—leading to hazardous road conditions.

    WSSI-P “Minor” Impacts Probability
    WSSI-P “Moderate” Impacts Probability

    The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has already issued impact probabilities for next week’s potential winter storm, indicating a 50-60% chance of Minor Winter Storm Impacts and a 40-60% chance of Moderate Winter Storm Impacts. This suggests that disruptions to travel and infrastructure closures could occur.

    We’ll continue to monitor the latest forecast developments and provide real-time updates as this potential winter storm approaches early next week. Stay tuned for the latest information.

  • Freezing Drizzle Threat Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning for Central and Northern Delmarva

    Freezing Drizzle Threat Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning for Central and Northern Delmarva

    A period of freezing drizzle is expected to develop across central and northern Delmarva Wednesday night, bringing the potential for hazardous travel conditions before precipitation transitions to plain rain by Thursday morning. The greatest threat for icy conditions will be across northern Delmarva, where temperatures will be more favorable for freezing precipitation.

    What is Freezing Drizzle?

    Freezing drizzle occurs when supercooled liquid droplets fall from the sky and freeze upon contact with surfaces such as roads, sidewalks, trees, and vehicles. Unlike freezing rain, which tends to form larger droplets, freezing drizzle consists of much smaller droplets that can create a thin but dangerous glaze of ice. Because it often accumulates subtly, freezing drizzle can be particularly hazardous as it may not appear as obvious as snow or sleet.

    Timing & Transition to Rain

    Freezing drizzle is expected to develop shortly after sundown Wednesday evening and will continue off and on through the night. Areas across northern Delmarva will experience the most significant threat of icy conditions due to colder surface temperatures sticking around a bit longer. As temperatures gradually rise early Thursday morning, all areas will transition to plain rain by mid-morning, reducing the risk of ice accumulation.

    Potential Impacts

    Even a light glaze of ice can lead to dangerous conditions, including:

    • Slippery Roads & Sidewalks – Even untreated surfaces may quickly become icy, increasing the risk of accidents and falls.
    • Icy Bridges & Overpasses – Elevated surfaces freeze faster than ground-level roads, making them particularly hazardous.
    • Thin Ice Accumulation on Vehicles – Ice may form on car windshields and other exposed surfaces, requiring extra time for de-icing before travel.

    If you must travel Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, use caution, reduce speed, and be prepared for slick spots, especially in northern Delmarva. Stay updated with the latest forecasts and advisories as conditions evolve.

  • Major Changes Ahead: Stratospheric Polar Vortex Split Could Bring An Active Winter Pattern Back to the U.S. Mid Month

    Major Changes Ahead: Stratospheric Polar Vortex Split Could Bring An Active Winter Pattern Back to the U.S. Mid Month

    As we head into mid-February, significant changes are brewing in the upper atmosphere that could have major implications for winter weather across the United States. The stratospheric polar vortex, a large-scale circulation of frigid air in the upper levels of the atmosphere, is undergoing a split, with one lobe shifting over North America and the other over Eastern Russia. This development could mean that winter is far from over for the Lower 48, with renewed bursts of Arctic air and even the potential for more snow.

    What is the Polar Vortex?

    The polar vortex is a vast region of cold, low-pressure air that resides in the stratosphere above the Arctic. It is typically strongest in winter and is contained by the polar jet stream, which acts as a barrier, keeping the frigid air locked in place. However, disturbances in the atmosphere, such as sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, can weaken or even split the polar vortex, allowing cold Arctic air to spill southward into mid-latitude regions, including the United States, Europe, and Asia.

    The Implications of a Polar Vortex Split

    When the polar vortex splits, the disrupted circulation can send lobes of cold air into different parts of the world. In this case, one portion of the vortex is expected to shift over North America, while the other moves over Eastern Russia. This could lead to:

    • Bitter Cold Spells: A more active intrusion of Arctic air into the U.S., potentially bringing below-average temperatures to much of the country, including regions that have recently experienced milder conditions.
    • Increased Snowfall: With cold air in place, any developing storm systems could tap into this frigid air mass and produce widespread snowfall across parts of the Midwest, Northeast, and even the South.
    • Disruptive Weather Patterns: A disrupted polar vortex can lead to more extreme weather events, including stronger storms, ice events, and even severe weather outbreaks as cold air clashes with milder air masses to the south.

    What to Expect Mid-Month

    As we approach mid-February, long-range models suggest a greater likelihood of colder air descending into the central and eastern U.S., potentially bringing another round of winter weather. The exact details remain uncertain, but if history is any guide, a significant polar vortex split often leads to prolonged cold outbreaks lasting several weeks.

    For those who thought winter was winding down, this development is a strong reminder that the season isn’t over just yet. Stay tuned for further updates as meteorologists track the evolving polar vortex split and its potential impacts on the weather in the coming weeks.

  • One Of The Coldest January Thus Far In The Last 30-40 Years.

    One Of The Coldest January Thus Far In The Last 30-40 Years.

    *Graphic Provided By The National Weather Service Wakefield, VA*

    As we examine the climate data for January, we have observed some significant trends. So far this month, average temperatures in our region have consistently been 7 to 9 degrees colder than normal. While this cold weather is not unprecedented, all of our long-term climate monitoring stations are reporting the lowest average temperatures for the first 23 days of January in over 30 years, with certain areas such as Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City recording their coldest temperatures in over 40 years.

    Looking ahead, we anticipate temperatures will begin to stabilize, with averages returning closer to normal levels in the coming week as we near the end of the month. This indicates that while the current temperature deviations are notable, they may decrease somewhat. Nonetheless, we project that Salisbury and Elizabeth City are likely to secure spots on the top 10 coldest January lists by month’s end. Richmond may be on the cusp of making this list, but it is more probable it will fall just outside the top 10. In the meantime, Norfolk, which has a weather record extending over 150 years, is expected to rank between the 15th and 20th coldest January.

    Stay warm everyone, and please keep an eye on those temperature fluctuations! #WeatherUpdate #ColdWeather #JanuaryTemperatures #ClimateChange #StayWarm #TemperatureRecord #Meteorology

  • Light Snow Event Tonight For Areas Of Southern Delmarva: Dangerous Cold Remains

    Light Snow Event Tonight For Areas Of Southern Delmarva: Dangerous Cold Remains

    A minor to light snowfall event on the way tonight as a rare southern US snowstorm is underway. Areas of Delmarva will see the extreme northern extend of the precipitation shield bringing areas of snow showers tonight, in particular across the VA counties. With extremely cold temperatures in place, this will be a very light and fluffy snow as temperatures are expected to be in the teens by the time the snow arrives later this evening. Most of the snowfall accumulations will be occurring across Northampton and Accomack counties where a short duration 1 to 2 inches are possible. Even though the amount of precipitation is very little of a tenth of a inch or less, temperatures are playing a huge role for “high ratio snowfall”

    The snow-to-liquid ratio is a quantitative measurement of how fluffy or heavy new fallen snow is.  It’s reported as the number of inches of snow that comes from 1 inch of liquid precipitation.  Typical snow-to-liquid ratios vary by region and by the weather pattern producing the snowfall. Air temperature, humidity, and wind speed influence how dense new fallen snow is. The highest snow ratios (or lowest density snow) are usually formed by temperatures that are roughly between 0°F and 10°F, in what is called the “Dendritic Growth Zone.”  This is the regime for forming large dendrites that accumulate with abundant air space between crystals.   New snow grains that are smaller and pack together better form denser snow.  Snow that forms outside of the Dendritic Growth Zone regime will be denser, as will snow that falls through warmer layers or is subject to riming.  Stronger winds will batter snowflakes together as they fall, which breaks down snow crystals into smaller, denser grains.

    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast North Carolina and eastern and
  southeast Virginia.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning
  commutes.
  • Increasing Threat of a Snow Event Sunday Night into Monday For Delmarva

    Increasing Threat of a Snow Event Sunday Night into Monday For Delmarva

    A potential snow event is taking shape for Sunday night into Monday as a dynamic weather pattern evolves. Heading into the weekend, an Arctic boundary is expected to push through the region, bringing temperatures into the upper 40s along with rain. However, a secondary piece of energy trailing behind the front will interact with the boundary, allowing a new low-pressure system to rapidly develop. This setup could result in light to moderate snow accumulations across parts of the area.

    Model Analysis and Comparisons

    ECMWF (European Model):
    Currently one of the most reliable models, the ECMWF suggests a light snow event affecting much of Delmarva and extending into the western shore of Maryland. Projected snowfall totals range between 1 and 4 inches, which aligns with current trends. However, areas along the southern shore may experience a mix of rain and snow due to the proximity of the low-pressure center and the Arctic front.

    UKMET, CMC, and RGEM Models:
    These models present a less favorable scenario for snowfall on the shore, with a more northern storm track that shifts the focus of snow accumulation to Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and extreme northwestern Maryland. The CMC and RGEM in particular show no significant snow accumulations for Delmarva. The UKMET, however, highlights a snow band producing 2 to 4 inches across northern Delmarva, aligning more closely with the ECMWF in terms of low-pressure positioning.

    GFS Model:

    The GFS takes a more expansive approach, forecasting widespread snowfall across the region. Accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are indicated from Easton to Dover and northward toward Wilmington. However, the GFS has shown considerable variability and currently holds the lowest verification rate among the models.

    Key Takeaways

    Confidence is increasing for another accumulating snow event across the region late Sunday into Monday. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact track of the low-pressure system and snow totals, current trends suggest a light to moderate event is possible, particularly for snow-prone areas on Delmarva. The National Blend of Models (NBM) also supports the potential for snowfall, giving some hope to snow enthusiasts before the arrival of extreme cold next week.

    Stay tuned for updates as this system develops.

  • Dangerous Cold Invades The Lower 48 Next Week: Coldest Outbreak In Several Years

    Dangerous Cold Invades The Lower 48 Next Week: Coldest Outbreak In Several Years

    🚨 Severe Cold Weather Alert: An Arctic air mass is forecasted to sweep across a significant portion of the United States this weekend! 📉 From the Rockies to the Great Plains, this frigid air will reach the Gulf Coast by Saturday night and move towards the Eastern Seaboard by Sunday evening.  

    ❄️ Extremely Low Wind Chills: The Rockies, northern Plains, and Upper Midwest are expected to experience dangerous wind chills as low as -30°F or even lower from Saturday through Tuesday. This extreme cold poses serious risks of hypothermia and frostbite for individuals exposed to these conditions. If you plan to travel, ensure you have a cold weather survival kit prepared for your safety.  

    🌬️ Furthermore, below-zero wind chills are anticipated to extend into the southern Plains and the Ohio Valley from Sunday night through Tuesday. The hazardous cold is likely to persist along the Gulf Coast and across the Southeast U.S. for much of the following week. Stay warm and take all necessary precautions during this severe cold snap! 🥶

  • Light To Moderate Snowfall Returning To Delmarva This Weekend

    Light To Moderate Snowfall Returning To Delmarva This Weekend

    Here we go ahead folks with another round of snowfall across the shore heading into this weekend. Although not as a major storm like areas of Delmarva witnessed Sunday into Monday, but more of a headache for the already 8-12 inches that remain on the ground currently.

    A southern stream storm system will slide down through the Southeastern US with arctic air already in place blanketed the Deep South with snow & ice before heading off the Carolina coastlines. While this remains a weaker system overall, areas of light to potentially moderate snow is expected across Central and Southern portions of Delmarva. Heaviest impacts will be down in Accomack & Northampton counties in Virginia here on the shore.

    ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
    SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

    * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
      accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations up to
      one tenth of an inch possible.

    * WHERE...Portions of northeast North Carolina and eastern and
      southeast Virginia.

    * WHEN...From Friday evening through early Saturday afternoon.

    * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

    Snow will begin to move in across the shore starting in the overnight hours Friday through the morning commute on Saturday. This will be a all snow event for the region as bitter cold arctic air remains locked in across much of the Eastern US.

    As it stands right now, Accomack & Northampton counties will likely see the most snowfall of 2-5″ before tapering off. Across the mid-shore, slightly less amounts of 2-4″ and 1-3″ expected from Pocomoke City towards Georgetown where the snow will be a bit lighter in intensity. Depending how far north the precipitation shield is, these totals could go up or down at this time. Areas across Northern Delmarva will only see about a dusting to a inch maybe if the precip shield is generous enough to keep that far north.

    More updates will follow going into tomorrow with any further changes down the line

  • Another Winter Storm Moves Across The Nation From Texas Towards The Mid-Atlantic

    Another Winter Storm Moves Across The Nation From Texas Towards The Mid-Atlantic

    🌨️ As the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions work towards recovery from the significant winter storm that recently impacted the area, we are bracing ourselves for another winter storm on the horizon! This time, the storm is coming from the Deep South, particularly Texas, where people are preparing for several inches of snow and ice starting tomorrow. Even places in the Deep South that usually don’t see snow will experience this major winter weather event!

    🌪️ As the low-pressure system advances into the Southeast, it is expected to spread snow across much of the Midwest, the Carolinas, and into the Mid-Atlantic states. While this storm could have been a significant threat with more interaction from the northern jet stream (potentially leading to an intense East Coast nor’easter this weekend), current models indicate that the storm’s path will remain further south and slightly weaker as it reaches the Eastern USA.

    ❄️ Current analyses suggest light to moderate snowfall accumulations for the Delmarva region, with the heaviest totals anticipated in the southern coastal areas. We’ll continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as we receive more detailed forecasts. Stay safe and stay tuned for more information!

  • 🔍 Another Winter Storm is Potentially Approaching This Weekend On Delmarva ❄️

    🔍 Another Winter Storm is Potentially Approaching This Weekend On Delmarva ❄️

    As we continue to recover from the recent winter storm, we want to keep everyone informed about the potential for yet another system approaching this weekend. This upcoming storm is part of the southern stream system that I mentioned prior to Christmas. Originating from the deep south, forecasters are noting an increasing chance for a snowstorm in the DFW area, and winter storm watches are already in effect.

    At this moment, the overall strength of the storm remains uncertain due to an additional weather disturbance that is currently moving down from Canada. The interaction between these two weather systems will be crucial; if they phase together, we could potentially see a stronger storm developing along the eastern seaboard, which might shape into a classic Nor’easter.

    Current forecasts indicate that we may experience a weaker system, with light to moderate snow accumulations expected. However, given the recent snowfall, this could worsen already hazardous travel conditions in the region. We will be keeping a close eye on the development of this weather system and will provide updates as we receive more information. Stay tuned and stay safe!

  • Significant Winter Storm Ahead For Delmarva Sunday Night Through Tuesday.

    Significant Winter Storm Ahead For Delmarva Sunday Night Through Tuesday.

    Signs continue to push for a significant winter storm on the way from areas of the central Plains towards the Mid-Atlantic states over the next few days with heavy snow and dangerous ice. A few changes in the overall forecast are now in play of a colder and slight shift south in the overall snow axis. Let’s go through the run down once more.

    During the daytime hours on Sunday will we be looking at a sunny but very chilly day with highs struggling to get above freezing before later that night clouds start to increase and the snow moves in. Everyone across the region will start off as snow with temperatures in the 20s. Snow ratios will be up slightly during this time period upwards to 15:1. A more powdery & dry snow as temperatures slowly start to warm into the daytime hours on Monday. From the latest futurecast thus far showing widespread areas of moderate snow in time for the Monday morning rush hour and continue throughout the daytime hours. Trends been showing the cold air locking in place a bit better with the extent of the snow shifting south.

    With the American models the GFS/NAM have trended even more south and a little bit colder overall throughout the event but still promoting the warmest solutions of them all. Mixing once again still remaining a possibility towards areas near Salisbury on southward. Significant snowfall accumulations of snow across Central Delmarva. Also some dangerous ice further south in the battle ground zone to shake things up a bit with sleet and freezing rain. These solution have been trending towards the UKMET and ECMWF runs now from the past couple of days.

    UKMET and the ECMWF have been the most aggressive, colder, and even farthest south solutions out of the bunch over the last several days. Also have been the most persistent with the overall snow axis throughout the last several days. Bringing the most significant amounts from areas of the Kent Sussex line through areas near Fruitland, MD. But also as of this afternoon down to Pocomoke City. But i am worry about mixing of ice down in these areas as well so will be holding them a bit lower in amounts as of now.

    As it stands, we are expected widespread amounts of 6-12 inches throughout much of Central and Northern Delmarva with the potential of a localized heavier band to setup during the day on Monday. Mixing is possible for areas further south of Salisbury to reduce totals down a bit. Regardless, a major winter storm is on the way for the first time in 3 years across the region. Make plans and prepare for snow covered roadways and hazardous road conditions. More updates to follow ahead.

  • Snowfall Forecast Regrading Thursday & Friday

    Snowfall Forecast Regrading Thursday & Friday

    Another light to moderate snow event is on the table going into later Thursday and Friday all thanks to a Clipper system sliding to our south. And then redeveloping off of our coastlines bringing back a inverted trough through northern Delmarva and Southern New Jersey. Enough to make for a plowable snow event for the region.

    Snow could become heavy at times north of Dover once the energy begins to transfer off the coastal of New Jersey. When this happens, a potential inverted trough or “trowal” develops with a corridor of enhanced moisture pointing back towards the coast.

    What is a trowal exactly? (warning it’s term heavy) A trowal is a trough of warm air aloft. Typically used during winter weather, it is a “tongue” of relatively warm/moist air aloft that wraps around to the north and west of a mature cyclone. It is best analyzed between 750-550 millibars using equivalent potential temperature (theta-e). Areas of intense lift and frontogenesis are commonly associated with TROWALs, hence they are favored regions for heavy and/or prolonged precipitation. During a winter storm, the heaviest snowfall amounts frequently occur along and north of the TROWAL axis.

    This area will have the greatest shot of getting near that 5 inch mark throughout the day on Friday. Snow will move in during the predawn hours Friday and continue into the evening hours.

    Still will be seen across much of the region before a big warm up trend will be arriving towards next week. Heaviest amounts of 2-5″ will be likely across Northern Maryland, Northern Delmarva, and most of Southern New Jersey. Further south will be dealing with less precipitation overall with the primary axis of moisture will be positioned just to north. Subsequently with lesser amounts over all but that can change depending on the track of this TROWAL and low placement in later outlooks.

  • Cold & Stormier Ringing In The New Year

    Cold & Stormier Ringing In The New Year

    To most of you this just looks like a bunch of lines on a graph. To me this is a pure (Mwah Chef’s Kiss) for someone who is a fan of cold and stormy going into the New Year. And right now the forecasted teleconnections across the Northern Hemisphere are as good as it gets.

    What are teleconnections? Teleconnections are significant relationships or links between weather phenomena at widely separated locations on earth, which typically entail climate patterns that span thousands of miles. Many teleconnection patterns behave like a seesaw, with atmospheric mass/pressure shifting back and forth between two distant locations.

    So going forward we have a -AO (Arctic Oscillation) which promotes something known as Cross-Polar Flow bringing colder air from Siberia down into North America.

    A -NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) which promotes high latitude blocking across Greenland which helps slows down the jet-stream pattern. This allows storm to deepen and strengthen across the country.

    A +PNA (Pacific North-American Oscillation) promotes ridging across the Western US, and on the opposite end brings troughs to the east for storm systems to follow.

    And we also throw in a -EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) which works with the PNA to promote ridging in the Eastern Pacific which helps allows cross polar flow down in the Eastern US.

    All these together is the ingredients to start bringing up the chances for some snowstorms in the east after the New Year! Not to mention, we have a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) occuring which will help break down the Polar Vortex and displace cold air southward to the Middle Latitudes. This is the response to what the teleconnections are forecasted to do here in the next few weeks.

    If you are fan of cold and stormy weather, this is the pattern for you hands down!

  • Warming In The Stratosphere: Busy Second Half Of Winter?

    Warming In The Stratosphere: Busy Second Half Of Winter?

    Second half of winter just keeps looking better and better. El Nino winter’s alone are notorious for second half winter fun for the country. And now we have another parameter to throw into place. Welcome to Polar Vortex!

    “The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding both of the Earth’s poles. It ALWAYS exists near the poles, but weakens in summer and strengthens in winter. The term “vortex” refers to the counter-clockwise flow of air that helps keep the colder air near the Poles. Many times during winter in the northern hemisphere, the polar vortex will expand, sending cold air southward with the jet stream. This occurs fairly regularly during wintertime and is often associated with large outbreaks of Arctic air in the United States. The one that occurred January 2014 is similar to many other cold outbreaks that have occurred in the past, including several notable colder outbreaks in 1977, 1982, 1985 and 1989.”

    So what is going on is that we are see a potential major warming of the stratosphere near the polar region going into the New Year. So what does that mean and how in the world do we get cold air from a “Warming” event. Think of like a bath tub separated in half with one side of very cold water and one side very warm water. When introducing the warmer water to the very cold side what happens? The cold water gets displaced and in the atmosphere, that cold air sinks south which overall weakens and breaks down this cold vortex in the polar regions.

    Sudden Stratospheric Warming events take time to do it’s thing. Typically 2-3 weeks before we can see the influence of the global weather pattern, but the effects can last for 1-2 months. As I have been mentioning or quite awhile now, we just have to be patient this winter. Second half of January into February keeps looking more and more interesting. 🌬🌨☃️

  • El Nino Winter Ahead

    El Nino Winter Ahead

    As we approach closer to the winter months here on Delmarva, we are already looking at the signs ahead for what kind of winter could we have been looking at. The last several years we have been stuck in a La Nina pattern across the Pacific. (colder than normal water temperatures). But this winter we are getting a bigger change. We got a El Nino in place and a decent strength one too.

    Right now from the look of the data, we are currently in a moderate strength El Nino. Could go into the strong territory’s during the winter but we shall see as we get closer to December.

    Snow lovers last year was extremely disappointed as we pretty much got a “sneeze” of snow which left many of us hungry. Well i have some better news for you based on the climate side of things.

    Delmarva usually fairs very well with El Nino winters in the snow department. Going back since the 1940s, the Delmarva region has seen many winters with above average snow. Even recently from 2010 and 2016. Not very cold winters at that but very snowy.

    All in all right now, snow lovers should be a bit happier this year. (granted anything was better than last year) A overall super cold winter i highly doubt. Probably end up slight above average for temperatures wise, precipitation should well above average too which leads to better snow chances.

  • Snowfall Forecast Thursday 1/20/2022

    Snowfall Forecast Thursday 1/20/2022

    We are looking at a light snow event right along a arctic frontal boundary during the daytime hours on Thursday. We will begin the morning with temperatures well into the 30’s to near 40 degrees but will be quickly dropping throughout the day. Most locations will start off with some rain showers before transitioning over to snow by the mid morning hours. Temperatures will kick down sub freezing and a light accumulation snow is in the forecast. The greatest accumulations will be across north and western Maryland where as much as 3 inches is possible. Across areas of Delmarva a nice swaft of 1-2 inches is not out of the question. Further south in the Virginia counties will see a dusting to a inch where rates will be on the light side. For those down there you will have to wait until Saturday for a more substantial snow ahead.

  • Winter’s 1-2 Punch To Finish Out The Week

    Winter’s 1-2 Punch To Finish Out The Week

    HRRR Futurecast Only Until 7am Thursday

    Let’s first begin with the snow threat going into Thursday morning. We will be having a arctic front that will be slowing sinking southward across the Mid-Atlantic taking temperatures in the 40’s down to subfreezing. In addition with a transition of rain to snow behind that front with a weak disturbance riding along this front. Some of the high resolution model guidance have a good agreement that a changeover is expected during the morning hours Thursday.

    Cluster of Models Regarding The Snow Threat Thursday Morning

    Now i don’t expect anything significant regarding accumulations with this one but some could pick up a light accumulation. Especially those further north on the shore. We could be looking at some slippery travel in the area during the morning commute Thursday. Colder temperatures will continue to plummet throughout Thursday into Friday just in time for the second and maybe even more significant threat.

    Arctic Front Settling Thursday-Friday

    When the passes through we are going to see a fresh supply of arctic air with temperatures dropping down into the teens Thursday night and really struggling to get anywhere near 30 on Friday. This is setting up the stage for round number 2.

    Model Solutions Regarding Snow Threat Friday-Saturday

    Now this is where the really messy situation begins. Unlike the last bigger snow threat to Delmarva, we have some of the best model consensus I have seen in quite some time which made it easy. Well it’s back to the confusing nightmare once again. So let’s break things down into groups.

    ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES/UKMET/NAM

    This group is the very aggressive solutions where we are showing a January 3rd snowstorm repeat across much of the region. Snow and a lot of it too. With the phasing of two jet streams allowing for a low to develop down in the Gulf Of Mexico and move off the Carolina coast. With a strong 1038mb high to north keeping that fresh arctic air locked in. This is a snow lovers dream with a textbox major snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic. The EURO model has been very persistent with this solution for the last several days but for awhile it was alone in that matter. The recent NAM model even though its not out far enough to really see the impacts, but its very aggressive and further northwest. UKMET has a limited amount of products we have access too but its also following the more northwest solution. Now going into the ensembles, there is a very tight agreement in low placements with the 52 members of this model. With some heavy hitting more reliable models getting on board with this solution, it’s something to take note of for sure.

    Messy Solution With Multiple Energy Pieces Not Phasing

    GFS/RGEM/CMC

    Now this group of models keeping all the pieces of energy separate with a much weaker and suppressed solution. We are going to have model runs like because there is so many different pieces these models are going to have to figure out what to do with them. Not 1, or 2, but 3 vort maxes in play. I’m going to be honest especially with the GFS model, It’s creating some very unrealistic movements with that northern piece of energy near Ohio by ejecting that straight east even though its pashing with that southern one near the Gulf States. Can that still happen? Of course but it’s on the low end of my scale right now. We really need a aircraft to sample the upper atmosphere in the next day or so to be ingested to these models so we can get a bit of better censuses. They did this for the storm occurring for MLK day and that’s why we had a major shift in the track to being much more inland.

    Overall Thoughts

    As it stands now for Friday into Saturday, we have a lot time to work out the kinks and we are going to be seeing some back and forth movement with solutions until we get these pieces of energy into range of observational data and or a aircraft to do research into the atmosphere the next 24 hours. I will be keeping a very close eye on this one that’s for sure.

  • Storm Signal Jan 16-17th / Winter Storm Looming?

    Storm Signal Jan 16-17th / Winter Storm Looming?

    GFS Model Showing Major Snowstorm

    Like I was mentioning yesterday, we are heading into a fairly volatile pattern to finish out the month of January. With the Polar vortex anchoring around the Hudson Bay, this will allow a persistent long wave trough across the Eastern half of the nation. And boy these long range models are showing a train of them to say the least. As of now there is no one solution in this matter. In fact there is two scenarios in which this system will go.

    Vorticity Forecast

    First off, This piece of energy will be associated with the northern stream jet-stream coming down from Canada. Which normally our coastal storms like to be coming from the sub-tropical jets stream from the south. But being this is diving deep down into the Gulf States, Its going to pay the southern stream a visit.

    Here’s the two scenarios we are looking at right now.

    Two possible outcomes for this storm the 16-17th
    ECMWF showing a suppressed solution

    Here’s the two possible outcomes I am seeing so far. All depends on two factors, one with the energy diving southward and becomes very suppressed by a strong area of high pressure over the Northeastern United States (Option 1). This will keep the storm very far south delivering some light snow to areas of the deep south. And a much weaker solution.

    GFS showing a major storm with scenario 2

    Option two would be a large snowstorm to start back over towards Missouri, plowing for the deep south and then intensify rapidly as a sub 980mb low off of our coasts. The high pressure system suppress the storm to the south and a very steep ridge over the western US allowing this piece of energy to become “negative tilted”.

    Both options are possible at this time, we just need to see more consistency in either direction to know that this is a false alarm or we got another big storm on our hands down the road.

  • Snowfall Forecast For Monday (Updated (9:30pm)

    Snowfall Forecast For Monday (Updated (9:30pm)

    Snowfall Forecast Valid For Monday (Subject To Change)

    Do not let these warm conditions fool you of the arctic snap that’s on our doorsteps today. With a very significant shift in the forecast trending towards the potential biggest storm in the region since 2019. Around this time in 24 hours, we will see a 30-35 degree temperature drop once the arctic front settles in from the north to the region.

    Futurecast Radar

    The main focus mechanism will be a lobe breaking off from the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream that will begin to interact with the stalling out arctic front. The thermodynamic difference along this front will help generate a strong baroclinic forcing. An area of low pressure will begin to intensify later this evening and track just off the coast of the Carolinas. Moisture will then start running into the arctic air mass (overrunning) creating a fairly narrowband of moderate snow to overspread areas from central Virginia into the Delmarva region.

    500mb Vorticity Forecast ECMWF
    Excellent agreement between all model consensus

    For a rare set of parameters, there has been exceptional agreement between ALL model guidance regarding several inches of snow to the region. Some big contenders like the ECMWF (European model) showing some fairly significant snow to the region. GFS being the most robust out of all them showing a foot plus. Although that’s being really extreme and not likely at this time, but we have a great average of 4-8 blend with all the guidance at this time. Subject to chance of course for the difference in small fluctuations on axis and location.

    Winter Storm Warnings / Winter Weather Advisories

    I get a lot of questions and concerns when it comes to the sudden temperature drop and ground temperatures. On the first onset of precipitation, intensity will be key. Just because we were in the 60’s the last few days, falling snow can quickly cool off ground temperatures with the heavier intensity of snowfall. Same with roadways. Snow will be beginning to fall during the pre dawn hours and continue into the afternoon hours.

    Let’s not forget the night after if we have snow cover on the ground. With the arctic air mass settling in and fresh snow cover, temperatures will tank significantly during the overnight hours with clear skies. The snow will act as a blanket keeping the ground temperatures from warming the surface air temperature. Think of it like a cooler with ice in it, the air above the ice is extremely cold but underneath is above freezing. Depending on snow depth covering the ground, temperatures could drop down into the single digits.

    We will continue to provide updates on this potential winter storm going into tomorrow.

  • Record Heat To Accumulating Snow In 36 Hours

    Record Heat To Accumulating Snow In 36 Hours

    Confidence is increasing for snow on Delmarva Monday Morning

    Going to be in for some wacky weather over the next 36-48 hours. First off off we are dealing with very mild temperatures in the 60’s before a arctic front passage pushing through Sunday evening. The arctic front will push through dropping temperatures down below freezing and then stall just south of the Delmarva region. A piece of southern stream energy with the sub-tropical jet will begin to interact with the arctic front having a redevelopment of precipitation and amplification of an area of low pressure to move off the Carolina coasts.

    Different Model Solutions For Monday Morning

    A good blend of different solutions showing that areas of central and southern Delmarva to pick up a light accumulation of snowfall. Some extreme solutions like the RAP and GFS showing a significant snowstorm to the region with several inches of snowfall but I’m going against that extreme. But i would not doubt some light accumulations are not out of the question.