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Tag: storms

  • Strong Thunderstorms Possible Across the Mid Atlantic This Afternoon

    Strong Thunderstorms Possible Across the Mid Atlantic This Afternoon

    A more active weather pattern is expected to unfold across the Mid Atlantic today as a disturbance moving out of the Great Lakes pushes toward the Ohio Valley and East Coast. Forecasters are monitoring the potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, especially across portions of Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and southern Pennsylvania.

    An upper level trough currently swinging southeast through the Great Lakes will help provide the energy needed for thunderstorm development later today. Early morning satellite and water vapor imagery already showed a lead disturbance tracking across southern Ohio into the central Appalachians, helping to spark areas of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the main system.

    At the surface, a frontal boundary draped across the region has been reshaped by ongoing morning rainfall and thunderstorms. As this boundary gradually slides southeast through the day, warm and humid air ahead of it will continue building instability across the Mid Atlantic. Dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s will create a very moisture rich atmosphere capable of supporting stronger storms by this afternoon.

    Clusters of thunderstorms to develop and move east southeastward later today. The primary threat with the strongest storms will be damaging wind gusts ranging from 50 to 65 mph, capable of bringing down tree limbs and causing isolated power outages. Some of the more intense storm cores may also produce small to marginally severe hail.

    While widespread severe weather is not expected, scattered strong storms could become locally intense during the peak heating hours this afternoon into early evening. Residents across the region should stay alert for rapidly changing weather conditions and be prepared for possible severe thunderstorm warnings later today.

    In addition to the wind threat, locally heavy rainfall may also accompany stronger storms given the humid environment already in place across the region.

  • Rain Threat Increases Across the Mid Atlantic Through the Weekend

    Rain Threat Increases Across the Mid Atlantic Through the Weekend

    A prolonged period of unsettled weather is expected to impact much of the Mid Atlantic beginning later this evening and continuing through Sunday, bringing multiple rounds of rain and the potential for localized flooding concerns.

    Rain showers will begin moving into the region from west to east this evening as a mild and moisture rich weather pattern remains in place. While rainfall tonight is expected to be generally light to moderate, coverage will increase overnight and into Saturday as a stronger system approaches.

    More widespread rain is forecast for Saturday and Saturday night as deeper moisture moves into the Mid Atlantic. Periods of steady rain are likely, with occasional heavier downpours. Embedded isolated thunderstorms are also possible during this time, which could briefly enhance rainfall rates in some areas.

    By Sunday, additional rounds of showers are expected to continue, keeping soils saturated and rivers on the rise. While rainfall amounts will vary by location, several areas could see one to two inches of rain by the end of the weekend, with locally higher totals where heavier showers or thunderstorms occur.

    Delmarva Region Faces Elevated Rain And Water Concerns

    Across the Delmarva Peninsula, including Delaware, eastern Maryland, and the Eastern Shore of Virginia, the rain threat will become more pronounced overnight and persist through the weekend. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are likely across much of the region, with isolated higher amounts possible.

    The combination of steady rain, mild temperatures, and ongoing snow and ice melt farther north could lead to noticeable rises on rivers, streams, and creeks. Low lying and poor drainage areas may be especially susceptible to ponding of water, particularly during periods of heavier rain.

    While widespread flooding is not currently expected, localized minor flooding cannot be ruled out, especially if thunderstorms produce brief heavy downpours. Urban areas and locations near small waterways should remain alert for changing conditions.

  • Severe Weather On Tap For Monday Evening Across Delmarva

    Severe Weather On Tap For Monday Evening Across Delmarva

    Strong to severe thunderstorms remain on tap as we venture into the afternoon and evening hours today as a strong cold front advances from the west. A “Slight Risk” of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center laid across all of the Mid-Atlantic today.

    Looking at satellite this morning over towards our west a nice blanket of sunshine moving into the region to help destabilize the atmosphere with surface heating as temperatures are expected to be well into the 70s as dew points surge into the 60s to have plenty of moisture in place. Well suited for thunderstorm develop later today.

    The first round of storms will begin to develop across the Maryland Western shore around the mid-afternoon hours (4-5PM) which will have the highest chances of larger hail or even an isolated tornado being discrete in nature. Later in the evening hours as the cold front arrives, a squall line likely to develop with the primary threat of damaging straight line winds. Although a quick spin up in the line is always a possibility but those probabilities remain on the low side of things.

    As mentioned before, the primary threat for the storms this afternoon will be indeed damaging straight line winds from the main squall line that moves through towards the evening hours from 7-10PM. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph are possible with the strongest portions of the line. Heavy rainfall from the squall line of 1-3″/hr could lead to some localized flooding in spots. During the mid afternoon hours when a few discrete cells form will have the best shot of large hail to 1″ or locally larger. Tornado threat remains low but not impossible for the first cells to develop in the afternoon hours and then again in the line itself.

  • Washout Of A Weekend On The Way For The Delmarva Region

    Washout Of A Weekend On The Way For The Delmarva Region

    If you were hoping to have a nice weekend ahead with good weather, this is not the weekend for it. Although the rain is welcomed and very beneficial for the ongoing extreme drought we are in, makes for plans to be remaining indoors. Rain will begin to move into the region during the afternoon hours on Saturday as a warm front lifts through. Rain will be heavy at times after dark through the morning hours.

    There will be a lull in the precipitation heading into the later morning hours on Sunday but we will see a noticeable increase in temperatures surging into the mid 60s. A cold front will be arriving later in the after hours bringing back the heavy rainfall and maybe even a few gusty thunderstorms are possible.

    The Storm Prediction center already highlighting a “Marginal” risk of severe weather for the afternoon hours on Sunday as a potential thing line of storms may form along the cold front. Although not expecting widespread thunderstorm development, a few rogue storms are not out of the question.

    Rainfall on the order of 1-2 inches is very plausible before tapering off Sunday night across the region. Might be some low lying area flooding with the recent rainfall events and the major snow melt from a few days ago.

  • Severe Weather Threat For Thursday

    Severe Weather Threat For Thursday

    While we are now in the short term model guidance, we had a big shift in the timing of this event. On Tuesday many of the medium range model guidance showed this event to be extremely underwhelming and much later into the night. Now into Wednesday, we have pushed the timing up about 6-8 hours into the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday. That big shift in timing boosted our chances to match with the SPC’s Slight Risk of Severe Weather they had all week.

    A good agreement between the HRRR/RAP as well as the CAMS showing ample thunderstorm development across the Mid-Atlantic States. An increase in instability as well with dew points going into the lower 60’s. Storms should be developing from west to east from 2-10pm.

    With the main threat being wind damage within these storms. No surprise with the strong winds aloft and in the lower level Jetstream. Strong winds at 5000 feet of 60-70 kts giving ample speed shear for storms to produce some gusty downbursts. Using TEHI for the tornadic threat and the good news is once more, fairly low probabilities. TEHI values under 2 (20%) chance of these storms producing a tornado in this environment. Also when we take a look at the Updraft Helicity Streaks, there is very little if any which is good news for shows storms with potential rotation on the models.

  • Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Possible Saturday | Brand New Tornado Forecast Tool

    Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Possible Saturday | Brand New Tornado Forecast Tool

    Storm Threats For Saturday

    We are getting closer and closer to our typical Severe Weather Season here on the shore. And we get a bit of a taste for it on Saturday. Now here’s the setup we are looking at.

    Low Pressure system Over The Great Lakes Driving A Cold Front Through The Eastern US

    First off we have a fairly strong area of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes region with a strengthening mid level Jetstream across the Mid-Atlantic States. That’s the first set of ingredients for the storm setup for tomorrow.

    Futurecast With Forecasted Dew Points | Sufficient for Storm Development

    Now storm formation will be isolated in nature based on the latest high resolution model guidance. One thing is for sure we got the warmer temperatures and bit of surface moistures with dew points getting into the 60’s. So it’s going to be a little bit muggy out there by the early afternoon hours.

    Model Outputs Regarding Instability and Wind Shear

    Now we will see ample instability and wind shear across the region before our cold front arrives during the evening hours. MLCAPE (a product used to measure instability) showing values in the moderate instability category which is very crucial for thunderstorm development. Not to mention with the decent amount of instabilty, mid level lapse rates are fairly steep as well. Anytime we get Lapse Rates in the mid levels over 7C/km, that increases our hail threat just a bit with the colder air higher into the atmosphere. This is why we have a bit of a higher threat for seeing quarter size hail in storms that may develop. Not to mention we have some decent bulk shear (wind shear in a storm environment). 50-60kts is more than plenty to get a mix of line segments or even a couple of isolated supercell thunderstorms.

    Brand New Product To Help Forecast Tornado Threats | Forecast Slice Through The Atmosphere

    Now in production for a little while, we have been working very hard at developing to really narrow down tornado threats in a 0-10 scale (0-100%). We are testing the waters on this one since there is a little bit of a tornado threat going into tomorrow. our TEHI product showing a level 1-2 threat out of 10 for tornadoes here on the shore. meaning storms will have a 10-20% chance of producing a tornado. Low level environment showing sufficient turning in the lowest levels which is very important for tornadogenisis.

    One limiting factor for storms tomorrow is the time of year we are in. Our coastal water temperatures do play a role in our storm threats with them being in the upper 40’s. This can create some stable air near the surface and cause storms to climb upscale and scrapping any tornado threat all together.

  • Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Evening

    Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Evening

    With the extremely warm temperatures on this March day here on the shore, we have a strong cold front on the move this evening. With barely any instability in place today, this storm threat is strong shear dominate. We have the chance of some storms that could reach severe limits during the evening hours today. Computer guidance has been hinting at a thin squall line to develop along the front with already very strong surface winds expected today.

    Slight Risk of Severe Weather For Northern Delmarva and Northern Maryland

    The biggest driver for today’s Slight Risk of Severe Weather is the very strong low level shear and steep lapse rates. With strong winds fairly close to the surface and with a strengthening low level jet to 60 knots, when that front arrives some of those stronger winds aloft will be brought down to the surface.

    Steep Low Level Lapse Rates indicating some great mixing of the stronger winds aloft to be brought down to the surface.

    Anytime you see Lapse Rates greater that 7.5 in the lowest levels, that’s the perfect case scenario for a damaging wind potential. Damaging winds are really the only threat with today’s setup. Tornado threat is very low today because the wind direction throughout the atmosphere is very linear. Tornadoes need turning wind form the surface on up.