TV Delmarva CHANNEL 33 WOWZ

Tag: storm

  • Unsettled Weekend Weather Ahead; Coastal Storm Threat Diminishing

    Unsettled Weekend Weather Ahead; Coastal Storm Threat Diminishing

    A developing storm system will bring a period of light snow early Saturday morning before transitioning to rain for many locations as the day goes on. The highest chances for accumulating snow will be found near and northwest of the Interstate 95 corridor, with the greatest totals expected farther north.

    An upper level trough will be positioned over the eastern United States this weekend, allowing several smaller disturbances to move through the region. The first of these systems is expected to arrive during the pre dawn hours on Saturday. As it moves in, increasing lift in the atmosphere and a gradual influx of milder air aloft will help precipitation develop.

    Forecast guidance now suggests the system will be slightly more organized than previously expected. As a result, rainfall totals have increased modestly. Areas near and northwest of I 95 are expected to receive between one tenth and two tenths of an inch of liquid precipitation through Saturday, while locations southeast of I 95 are likely to remain under one tenth of an inch.

    Precipitation is expected to begin mainly as snow early Saturday before gradually changing to rain from southeast to northwest. Little to no snow accumulation is expected southeast of the I 95 corridor before the transition occurs. Near and just northwest of I 95, snowfall amounts should range from a light dusting up to one inch.

    Farther north, including the Lehigh Valley, northwest New Jersey, and the southern Poconos, colder air will allow snow to persist longer. In these areas, snowfall totals are now forecast to reach one to two inches, with up to three inches possible at higher elevations in the southern Poconos where rain mixing may be limited.

    Watching a Coastal System for Sunday

    Attention then turns to a separate storm system expected to develop offshore late in the weekend. This coastal low is forecast to form near the Outer Banks and track northeastward on Sunday. At this time, the overall threat for a significant snowfall remains low.

    Most forecast models continue to favor a track well offshore, which would limit impacts across the region. Under the current forecast, light snow is possible along the coast and areas south and east of I 95 on Sunday, while locations farther inland may see little or no accumulation.

    There is still some uncertainty, as a small number of ensemble models suggest a closer track could occur. However, confidence in that scenario remains low. Probabilities for advisory level snowfall remain modest, generally around 20 to 25 percent at the immediate coast, decreasing farther inland.

    Current snowfall forecasts call for around one half inch to one and a half inches along the coast and southern Delaware, with a coating to one inch possible up to the I 95 corridor. North and west of I 95, only a few flurries or trace amounts are expected.

    Any precipitation associated with this system is expected to taper off Sunday night as the storm pulls farther offshore.

  • Winter Uncertainty Towards The Late Week; Social Media Hype Is Crazy Right Now

    Winter Uncertainty Towards The Late Week; Social Media Hype Is Crazy Right Now

    Forecast guidance continues to signal the potential for a disruptive winter weather pattern later this week, mainly from Wednesday through Friday, as an upper level low strengthens over the Lower Great Lakes and moves toward the Northeast. This system is expected to bring an increase in wintry precipitation across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, the central Appalachians, and portions of the interior Northeast, with colder air also setting the stage for lake effect snow in typical snowbelt regions.

    However, confidence in the overall setup remains low. Key details such as the exact placement and strength of the upper level low are still uncertain, which will ultimately determine where the heaviest precipitation develops. There is also considerable question surrounding coastal low development, including whether it forms too late, remains weak, or tracks well offshore. Recent trends as of today favor a later developing system that stays farther out to sea, which would significantly limit impacts for much of the I-95 corridor.

    The primary question for Delmarva centers on whether a coastal low is able to develop in time and close enough to influence the region. Current guidance shows large spread in both timing and track, with recent trends favoring a system that forms too late and remains well offshore. If this trend holds, meaningful winter weather impacts across Delaware, eastern Maryland, and Virginia’s Eastern Shore would be limited or possibly avoided altogether.

    Because of these uncertainties, forecast impacts to travel and infrastructure remain unclear at this time. While some wintry weather is possible inland, especially across higher elevations and areas closer to the Great Lakes, any coastal impacts would depend on how quickly and how close a coastal low can organize. Forecast confidence should improve over the next few days as the system comes into better range of higher resolution models.

  • Wash, Rinse, Repeat. Another High Wind Event On The Way

    Wash, Rinse, Repeat. Another High Wind Event On The Way

    Although the next storm system is another big one moving through the same areas as the last one, this one will not have that extreme punch like this one will. Still will be a nuisance to say the least.

    Strong winds will be a issue once again but thankfully we will NOT see those hurricane force wind gusts like we did but still in the higher end of the advisory category. Winds during the later overnight hours Friday into Saturday morning will gust 40-50 MPH on average but at times could gust 55 or higher especially near the coastlines. Which once again can lead to sporadic power outages and tree damage.

    Rainfall will once again will be a problem but not a extreme problem. A lot less rain is expected with this storm. Most areas will see upwards to a inch of rain but with saturated grounds, sporadic flooding is possible.

    Coastal Flooding will be a issue yet again with the New Moon still in play creating higher than normal tide cycles. At this time most tidal gauge forecasts are showing minor to moderate levels of tidal flooding Friday Night. Main flooding concerns will once again be in the Chesapeake and the mouth of the Delaware River.

  • Coastal Storm Possible This Weekend

    Coastal Storm Possible This Weekend

    After a period of very dry and chilly conditions over the weekend and throughout much of this week, we have a potential storm looming towards the weekend. Computer guidance has been hinting at a Miller B type of coastal storm to sweep across the northern tier of the nation and redeveloping a coastal low right off to our east.

    “Miller B Nor’easters is a low pressure system first tracks over the Midwest, bringing a swath of rain, sleet or snow to parts of the Plains. This storm generally moves into the Kentucky/Ohio River Valley before it starts to transfer energy to a newly forming low pressure system along the coast of North Carolina and Virginia. From here, the newly redeveloped storm takes a northerly path before making a turn out to sea.”.

    Our storm first develops across the Central Plains as a fairly strong system already on Friday before heading into our region on Saturday with rain and breezy conditions. Then the low begins to transfer off the coast of us and begins to redevelop with increasing northeasterly winds. European model ensembles really show a very good cluster of low centers right off the coast of Jersey showing there is a good potential for this to occur. So more than likely, get ready for more wind, rain, and coastal flooding going into the weekend with the new moon ahead.

  • Another Winter Storm Looming To Close Out January?

    Another Winter Storm Looming To Close Out January?

    ECMWF Ensemble Low Plots from 00z

    Seems like every weekend this past month we are talking about another snow threat one after another. The only difference is that this one could become a powerful low off our coasts going into Friday and Saturday. With this being the end of the active weather pattern and signs showing for the persistent eastern trough will come to close with a more zonal flow (west to east parallel motion of the jet stream). Ensembles have been very persistent about a coastal low about 200 miles offshore with explosive development (aka bombcyclone) scenario with a rapidly intensifying oceanic storm that moves across the Gulf Stream. And some of these low placement strengths are nothing to take for granted. A good 80% of them are below 986mb pressure levels when its off our coast. By the time it’s off the coast of Cape Cod we are talking down into the 970s.

    Major Global Model Outputs For This Storm

    With a bit of surprise, there is actually some good agreement between the 3 major global models regarding this storm. ECMWF/GFS/CMC/ICON are on the table for a rapidly intensifying storm off our coasts this coming weekend. The biggest difference is how far offshore will it actually be. Every model without a doubt has a round of snow to the region but how close that low is will make a major difference. CMC/ICON are the most offshore out of the bunch with some light precipitation to the region and then dumping over coastal New England. GFS model coming in at 12z is a little bit westward giving Delmarva a good hit with snow. And then the big elephant of the group the ECMWF and the ensembles being very aggressive with a the furthest west solution giving all of Delmarva a major winter storm. And the ECMWF has been very consistent with that. Some of the ensembles give historic levels of snow but that’s extremely far fetched in my opinion.

    Overall do I think we have a explosive developing oceanic storm? That’s on the increase for sure to close out the weather pattern. It’s going to be a matter of how close will this get to our coast will make the big difference. We have the cold air in place ahead of this system to begin with. It’s something that we will be keeping an eye on this week.

  • Storm Signal Jan 16-17th / Winter Storm Looming?

    Storm Signal Jan 16-17th / Winter Storm Looming?

    GFS Model Showing Major Snowstorm

    Like I was mentioning yesterday, we are heading into a fairly volatile pattern to finish out the month of January. With the Polar vortex anchoring around the Hudson Bay, this will allow a persistent long wave trough across the Eastern half of the nation. And boy these long range models are showing a train of them to say the least. As of now there is no one solution in this matter. In fact there is two scenarios in which this system will go.

    Vorticity Forecast

    First off, This piece of energy will be associated with the northern stream jet-stream coming down from Canada. Which normally our coastal storms like to be coming from the sub-tropical jets stream from the south. But being this is diving deep down into the Gulf States, Its going to pay the southern stream a visit.

    Here’s the two scenarios we are looking at right now.

    Two possible outcomes for this storm the 16-17th
    ECMWF showing a suppressed solution

    Here’s the two possible outcomes I am seeing so far. All depends on two factors, one with the energy diving southward and becomes very suppressed by a strong area of high pressure over the Northeastern United States (Option 1). This will keep the storm very far south delivering some light snow to areas of the deep south. And a much weaker solution.

    GFS showing a major storm with scenario 2

    Option two would be a large snowstorm to start back over towards Missouri, plowing for the deep south and then intensify rapidly as a sub 980mb low off of our coasts. The high pressure system suppress the storm to the south and a very steep ridge over the western US allowing this piece of energy to become “negative tilted”.

    Both options are possible at this time, we just need to see more consistency in either direction to know that this is a false alarm or we got another big storm on our hands down the road.