Forecast guidance continues to signal the potential for a disruptive winter weather pattern later this week, mainly from Wednesday through Friday, as an upper level low strengthens over the Lower Great Lakes and moves toward the Northeast. This system is expected to bring an increase in wintry precipitation across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, the central Appalachians, and portions of the interior Northeast, with colder air also setting the stage for lake effect snow in typical snowbelt regions.
However, confidence in the overall setup remains low. Key details such as the exact placement and strength of the upper level low are still uncertain, which will ultimately determine where the heaviest precipitation develops. There is also considerable question surrounding coastal low development, including whether it forms too late, remains weak, or tracks well offshore. Recent trends as of today favor a later developing system that stays farther out to sea, which would significantly limit impacts for much of the I-95 corridor.
The primary question for Delmarva centers on whether a coastal low is able to develop in time and close enough to influence the region. Current guidance shows large spread in both timing and track, with recent trends favoring a system that forms too late and remains well offshore. If this trend holds, meaningful winter weather impacts across Delaware, eastern Maryland, and Virginia’s Eastern Shore would be limited or possibly avoided altogether.
Because of these uncertainties, forecast impacts to travel and infrastructure remain unclear at this time. While some wintry weather is possible inland, especially across higher elevations and areas closer to the Great Lakes, any coastal impacts would depend on how quickly and how close a coastal low can organize. Forecast confidence should improve over the next few days as the system comes into better range of higher resolution models.