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Tag: snowstorm

  • Historic Winter Storm to Hammer Delmarva and South Jersey; Thundersnow Possible Tonight

    Historic Winter Storm to Hammer Delmarva and South Jersey; Thundersnow Possible Tonight

    A major and potentially historic winter storm is set to bring crippling snowfall, blizzard conditions, damaging winds, and significant coastal flooding to the Delmarva Peninsula and southern New Jersey through Monday.

    The storm is rapidly intensifying as it tracks northeast along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Forecast guidance continues to show the low deepening dramatically offshore, potentially reaching near 970 millibars. This strengthening coastal system will place Delmarva and South Jersey in a prime zone for heavy snow, strong winds, and dangerous conditions.

    Heavy Snow Becoming Intense This Evening

    Light precipitation is already spreading into the region, but colder air will quickly take over this afternoon and evening. Any early rain or mix will transition to all snow as the heaviest precipitation moves in.

    Snowfall rates are expected to exceed 2 inches per hour at times tonight, especially across Delaware and southern New Jersey. Widespread totals of 1 to 2 feet are expected across much of Delmarva, with locally higher amounts possible near the Delaware and New Jersey coasts where banding sets up.

    Southern New Jersey is expected to see some of the heaviest snowfall, particularly along the coastal counties where intense snow bands may persist for several hours.

    Thundersnow Possible Tonight

    With very strong upward motion in the atmosphere and intense snow bands developing, thundersnow is possible tonight across parts of Delmarva and southern New Jersey. This rare phenomenon occurs when lightning and thunder develop within heavy snow bands, often signaling extremely heavy snowfall rates and rapidly deteriorating visibility.

    If thundersnow develops, snowfall rates could briefly become even more intense, leading to near whiteout conditions.

    Blizzard Conditions and Life-Threatening Travel

    As the storm strengthens offshore tonight, winds will ramp up significantly. Northeast winds of 20 to 35 mph will shift north and northwest into Monday, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph inland and up to 60 mph along the coast.

    The combination of heavy, wet snow and strong winds will produce blowing and drifting snow, sharply reduced visibility, and potentially impossible travel conditions. Blizzard Warnings are in effect across all of Delaware and all of New Jersey.

    Even outside of strict blizzard criteria, travel is expected to become extremely dangerous Sunday night into early Monday. Residents are strongly urged to avoid travel once conditions worsen.

    Power Outages Likely

    Snow will initially be heavy and wet, sticking to trees and power lines. Combined with strong wind gusts, this increases the risk for scattered power outages across the region.

    Coastal Flooding Expected Tonight

    In addition to snow and wind, widespread coastal flooding is expected during tonight’s high tide cycle.

    Strong onshore winds will push water into the back bays and along the Atlantic coastline of southern New Jersey and Delaware. Moderate coastal flooding is likely, with some locations potentially reaching major flood stage, especially from Ocean County, New Jersey southward through Sussex County, Delaware.

    Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for Atlantic and Cape May Counties in New Jersey and for Kent and Sussex Counties in Delaware.

    Another round of minor to moderate flooding may occur Monday as ocean swells remain elevated, even as winds gradually shift offshore.

    No Tidal Flooding for Maryland Eastern Shore Rivers

    While Atlantic coastal areas face significant flooding concerns, tidal flooding is not expected along the tidal Maryland Eastern Shore waterways.

  • Major Nor’easter to Bring Blizzard Conditions to Delmarva Sunday into Monday

    Major Nor’easter to Bring Blizzard Conditions to Delmarva Sunday into Monday

    A powerful late-February nor’easter is expected to significantly impact the Delmarva Peninsula from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening, bringing heavy snow, strong winds, and potentially dangerous travel conditions.

    This storm will rapidly intensify off the Mid-Atlantic coast, creating a period of heavy snowfall and localized blizzard conditions across coastal Delaware and portions of inland Sussex County.

    Heavy Snow and Strong Winds

    Snow is expected to overspread Delmarva Sunday afternoon, becoming heavy at times Sunday night into early Monday. Snowfall rates could exceed one to two inches per hour during the height of the storm.

    Total accumulations across parts of the peninsula could reach significant levels, especially closer to the Delaware beaches, where blowing and drifting snow may greatly reduce visibility.

    In addition to heavy snowfall, strong northeast winds are expected to increase through Sunday night. Wind gusts between 40 and 60+ mph could create whiteout conditions, particularly along coastal areas. These winds will also lead to significant drifting, making roads impassable in some locations.

    Travel Could Become Extremely Dangerous

    The combination of heavy snow and strong winds may produce localized blizzard conditions across coastal Delmarva. Visibility could drop below a quarter mile at times, especially during peak snowfall rates.

    Travel is expected to become very difficult Sunday night into Monday. Both the Monday morning and evening commutes could be heavily impacted if conditions worsen as expected.

    Residents are urged to limit travel to emergencies only. If travel is unavoidable, motorists should carry a winter survival kit and be prepared for rapidly deteriorating conditions.

    Power Outages Possible

    Strong winds combined with heavy, wet snow could lead to scattered power outages across Sussex County and nearby coastal communities. Tree damage is possible, particularly where snowfall accumulates on limbs before peak wind gusts arrive.

    Coastal Concerns

    Moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion are also possible along the Delaware coastline, especially during times of high tide as strong onshore flow persists.

  • Will It Blizzard? Or Will It Be A Major Blizzard Failure; American Vs International Models This Weekend

    Will It Blizzard? Or Will It Be A Major Blizzard Failure; American Vs International Models This Weekend

    Confidence is starting to grow that a winter storm will impact the region Sunday into Monday, bringing the potential for widespread accumulating snowfall. However, while the threat for some sort of snow is becoming clearer, major questions remain regarding just how significant this system will become.

    Forecast guidance remains in general agreement that low pressure will develop off the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic coast late Saturday night or Sunday, then strengthen as it moves offshore into Monday. What remains highly uncertain is how close the storm tracks to the coast and how intense it ultimately becomes.

    Model solutions continue to vary widely. Some guidance depicts a stronger storm tucked closer to the Mid-Atlantic coastline, which would support heavier snowfall, stronger winds, and a higher risk of coastal flooding. Other solutions keep the storm weaker and farther offshore, which would result in lighter snowfall totals and potentially even some rain mixing in at the onset.

    There has been a subtle westward shift in some of the midday model runs, particularly with the ICON and UKMET, suggesting a slightly closer track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has come into better agreement showing at least light snowfall accumulations across the entire area. Ensemble guidance, however, still shows significant spread, highlighting the continued uncertainty.

    It is worth noting that while some mid-range American models such as the GFS and NAM have hinted at an extreme scenario featuring 2 to 3 feet of snow in parts of the region, that solution currently appears to be an extreme outlier. At this time, confidence in a historic blizzard scenario remains very low. The overall snow threat is real and it is increasing, but the most extreme projections do not appear to be the most likely outcome.

    High-resolution guidance is also offering important insight. Some CAMs, including the MPAS, show a significant reduction of snowfall on the backside of the system due to weaker phasing of upper-level energy. The timing and interaction of shortwave energy from the Midwest and West Coast will ultimately determine how amplified the upper-level trough becomes and whether the system achieves a more neutral or negative tilt. A stronger, phased system would support heavier snow, while weaker phasing would favor a more modest event.

    Another key factor will be boundary layer temperatures. The air mass ahead of the storm is not particularly cold, meaning surface temperatures will play a critical role in determining how efficiently snow accumulates. Even with a weaker solution, increasing northeasterly winds could develop Sunday into Monday, especially near the coast, raising at least some concern for minor coastal flooding.

    The bottom line: confidence is high that precipitation will occur Sunday into Monday, with an 80 to 90 percent chance of measurable precipitation. Confidence is increasing that a chuck of that is snow. However, it is too early to lock in specific totals or buy into extreme scenarios. Expect forecast adjustments as newer data continues to refine the storm’s evolution.

  • Potential Coastal Storm This Weekend; Much Colder Air Follows for Delmarva

    Potential Coastal Storm This Weekend; Much Colder Air Follows for Delmarva

    An active weather pattern continues across the Mid-Atlantic, and are now monitoring the potential for a coastal storm to impact the Delmarva Peninsula during the second half of the weekend.

    While details remain uncertain, confidence is increasing that a developing area of low pressure will track west to east across the region late Sunday before strengthening offshore along the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. But there is also key details I’m not very fond of trusting.

    Storm Track Will Determine Impacts

    Most computer models show a storm developing and passing near the region Sunday. However, the exact track and strength of the surface low will ultimately determine how impactful this system becomes for Delmarva.

    Recent trends in both deterministic and ensemble guidance have nudged the system slightly farther south and east. That shift could reduce overall impacts totals locally if it continues. Still, there remains a signal for a widespread precipitation event across the peninsula.

    If the storm tracks close enough to the coast, stronger dynamics could enhance precipitation rates. At this stage, it is too early to determine rain and even snowfall amounts or pinpoint exact impacts.

    Cold Air Will Be Key

    The amount of cold air in place ahead of and during the storm will play a major role in determining precipitation type and accumulation potential.

    Forecast guidance suggests that sufficient cold air may be present for accumulating snow across Delmarva if the storm tracks favorably. However, small shifts in the storm’s path could significantly change the outcome.

    Relying On a Norlun Trough & Dynamic Cooling Never Fair Well For Delmarva

    A Norlun trough is a narrow, elongated area of low pressure that can develop between two larger weather systems, often in New England or the northern Mid-Atlantic.

    These features often form in cold, unstable air behind a departing coastal storm or between competing pressure systems. They can be difficult to forecast because they are small-scale and highly sensitive to subtle atmospheric changes.

    On Delmarva, Norlun troughs are less common than in New England, but similar narrow deformation bands can produce comparable localized snowfall.

    Dynamic cooling refers to a process where strong upward motion in the atmosphere causes temperatures to cool rapidly, sometimes enough to change rain to snow.

    If precipitation falls heavily enough, it can also contribute to cooling through melting and evaporation, reinforcing the transition to snow.

    Much Colder Air Early Next Week

    Behind the potential weekend storm, a notably colder air mass is expected to settle into the region early next week.

    High temperatures Monday and Tuesday may struggle to climb out of the 30s across Delmarva, with overnight lows dropping into the teens in many locations. The colder conditions could lead to icy spots lingering if snowfall occurs over the weekend.

  • Coastal Winter Storm to Bring Snow, Wind, and Tidal Concerns to Delmarva This Weekend

    Coastal Winter Storm to Bring Snow, Wind, and Tidal Concerns to Delmarva This Weekend

    A rapidly intensifying coastal storm is expected to develop off the East Coast this weekend, bringing a combination of snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding concerns to parts of the Delmarva Peninsula. While the storm is forecast to track far enough offshore to limit widespread impacts inland, coastal and southern portions of Delmarva remain at risk for more significant winter weather impacts.

    Snowfall Forecast

    Snowfall amounts across Delmarva will feature a very sharp gradient, with accumulations increasing quickly from north to south and from inland areas toward the coast.

    Northern and central Delaware, along with much of interior Maryland’s Eastern Shore, are expected to see little accumulation, generally less than 1 inch. This includes areas such as Dover, Easton, and much of inland Kent and Queen Anne’s counties.

    Across central Delmarva, including Cambridge and Georgetown, snowfall totals are forecast to range from a coating up to around 1 inch, with 1 to 3 inches possible near Salisbury.

    The highest snowfall totals are expected along the coast and across southern Delmarva. Ocean City could see 2 to 5 inches of snow, while farther south, Pocomoke City is forecast to receive 3 to 6 inches. The most significant accumulations are expected across Chincoteague, Exmore, and Cape Charles, where 4 to 8 inches of snow remain possible.

    We stress that even small shifts in the storm’s track could result in noticeable changes to snowfall totals, especially along the northern edge of the heavier snow band.

    Timing and Impacts

    Snow is expected to develop Saturday night, with the highest confidence for accumulation occurring overnight into Sunday morning. Snow should gradually taper off from west to east by late Sunday morning.

    Strong winds will become an increasing concern early Sunday morning through Sunday evening, coinciding with the period of rapid storm intensification offshore. Gusts along the Delmarva coastline could approach or exceed 55mph, especially in exposed coastal locations.

    The combination of snow and strong winds could lead to blowing and drifting snow, particularly in southern Delaware and along the coast. These conditions may reduce visibility and create hazardous travel, even where snowfall totals are not extreme.

    Coastal Flooding Concerns

    At least minor tidal flooding is possible during the high tide cycle on Sunday, with some impacts potentially lingering into Monday. While wind direction is expected to limit more severe flooding, higher astronomical tides associated with the full moon, combined with increasing offshore swells, may exacerbate water level rises.

    Additional complications include existing ice on bays and waterways, which could influence how water levels respond during high tide.

    Forecast Confidence

    Confidence is increasing that Delmarva will experience impacts from this winter storm, though confidence in exact snowfall placement remains below average. The storm is expected to remain offshore, but a shift of as little as 50 miles could significantly change snowfall totals across the peninsula.

    Residents across Delmarva, especially in coastal and southern communities, are urged to monitor the forecast closely as additional updates and potential advisories may be issued over the next 24 hours.

  • Major Winter Storm Becoming Likely Across Southern Delmarva; Blizzard Conditions Possible

    Major Winter Storm Becoming Likely Across Southern Delmarva; Blizzard Conditions Possible

    A rapidly intensifying coastal storm is expected to develop off the East Coast this weekend, and while confidence in exact impacts remains limited, portions of the Delmarva Peninsula could see effects ranging from snowfall and strong winds to coastal flooding.

    Forecast guidance continues to show cyclogenesis beginning Saturday off the southeastern United States coast. As low pressure rapidly deepens, the system is expected to track north and east Saturday night into Sunday. This development is being driven by a potent upper-level disturbance rotating around the base of a longwave trough over the eastern United States, interacting with a sharp temperature contrast along the coast.

    For Delmarva, impacts will depend heavily on the exact track of the storm, which remains uncertain. Current guidance places much of the region on the northwest fringe of the precipitation shield. Small shifts in the storm’s path could make the difference between limited impacts and a more impactful winter weather event, particularly for southern and coastal Delaware.

    Among the latest forecast models, solutions remain mixed. Some guidance continues to suggest light snowfall for parts of Delaware, while others are more suppressed and keep meaningful precipitation offshore. At this time, forecast confidence supports the possibility of light to moderate snow accumulations in southern Delaware, with lesser amounts farther north. Additional snow could fall beyond early Sunday depending on how quickly the system departs.

    Snowfall probabilities remain highest closer to the coast. Current probabilistic guidance shows a 60 to 70 percent chance for more than 2 inches of snow near coastal areas, decreasing to 25 to 35 percent near the I-95 corridor. The probability of 6 inches or more remains lower, but remains notable near the coast where probabilities range from 35 to 50 percent.

    Regardless of snowfall totals, confidence is increasing that strong winds will affect the region Saturday night into Sunday. Northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to increase inland to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Along the coast, winds could reach 25 to 35 mph with gusts approaching 50 mph. If the storm tracks closer to the coast, winds could be stronger than currently forecast.

    Given the combination of strong winds and falling or blowing snow, there is a conditional risk for blizzard conditions in portions of southern Delmarva, especially near coastal areas. While confidence is not yet high enough for blizzard headlines, blizzard warnings could become necessary if the storm track shifts closer and snowfall rates increase alongside the strongest winds.

    Strong onshore winds will also increase the risk for coastal flooding, particularly during times of high tide. This threat is further heightened by the presence of a full moon, which will result in astronomical high tides. If strong northeasterly winds persist during peak tidal cycles, water levels could rise more quickly and lead to minor to locally moderate coastal flooding in vulnerable coastal communities.

    Temperatures throughout the event will be well below freezing, strongly favoring all snow across Delmarva should precipitation occur. Any snowfall that does develop would accumulate efficiently on untreated roads and elevated surfaces.

    The storm is expected to pull rapidly away to the northeast by Sunday evening, allowing quieter but cold conditions to return for the start of the new week.

    Overall, this remains a challenging forecast. While many model solutions currently suggest a near miss for Delmarva, even a subtle shift in the storm track could bring more substantial impacts. Residents are encouraged to stay informed, review winter weather safety plans, and monitor future forecasts as confidence improves over the coming days.

  • Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm Could Impact the Region This Weekend

    Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm Could Impact the Region This Weekend

    We are closely monitoring a rapidly strengthening coastal storm expected to develop off the East Coast this weekend. While confidence in the exact track and impacts remains low, the system has the potential to bring moderate to significant winter weather impacts to parts of the region, including snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding.

    Forecast guidance continues to show low pressure rapidly developing off the southeastern U.S. coast on Saturday before intensifying and moving north and east Saturday night into Sunday. This storm will strengthen as a powerful upper level disturbance rotates around the base of a large-scale trough over the eastern United States and interacts with a strong temperature contrast along the coastline. This setup is favorable for rapid intensification, which could lead to high-impact weather depending on the storm’s eventual track.

    One of the reasons forecast confidence remains limited is ongoing difficulty within some weather models in accurately handling the storm’s development. Several models are struggling with an issue known as convective feedback. This occurs when the model generates unrealistic high vertical velocities that are too strong or widespread, which in turn creates artificial areas of low pressure that should not exist. These false low pressure centers can disrupt the overall storm structure, leading to errors in the placement of the main low and causing the precipitation shield to appear displaced or unrealistic compared to what may actually occur.

    As a result, small but important details such as where the heaviest snow sets up and how far inland precipitation reaches remain uncertain. This has contributed to notable spread among model solutions, particularly regarding how close the storm tracks to the coast.

    If the storm tracks closer to shore, impacts could begin as early as late Saturday, with the most significant conditions occurring Saturday night into Sunday morning. With very cold air firmly in place at both the surface and aloft, any precipitation that reaches the region would almost certainly fall as snow.

    Probabilistic snowfall data suggests a moderate risk for accumulating snow. The likelihood of at least 2 inches of snow is around 50 percent near the coast and roughly 40 percent along the I-95 corridor, with lower probabilities farther inland. The chance of 6 inches or more increases closer to the coast, reaching around 40 percent, while remaining near 30 percent around the urban corridor. These probabilities remain subject to change as confidence improves.

    Regardless of snowfall totals, increasing winds appear likely. Northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to strengthen Saturday night into Sunday, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph inland and up to 50 mph along the coast. A closer track could result in even stronger winds, raising the risk for power outages, minor structural damage, and hazardous marine conditions. The strong wind field may also contribute to coastal flooding as water is pushed toward the shoreline.

    By Sunday evening, the storm is expected to rapidly pull away to the northeast, with quieter but cold conditions settling in for early next week.

    This storm remains one to watch closely over the coming days. Forecast details should become clearer as additional data is sampled and models better resolve the system. Residents are encouraged to stay informed and prepared for potential winter weather impacts this weekend.

  • Growing Threat of Significant Winter Storm for Delmarva This Weekend

    Growing Threat of Significant Winter Storm for Delmarva This Weekend

    Forecast confidence is increasing that a potentially impactful winter storm could affect the Delmarva region late Saturday through Sunday, though important details regarding track and snowfall amounts remain uncertain at this time.

    Weather patterns aloft are becoming increasingly active as we head toward the weekend, with interactions expected between northern and southern jet stream systems. The energy driving this setup is currently located over the Arctic and the Pacific Ocean, meaning it will take several more days for forecasts to fully resolve how this system evolves. Even so, most forecast guidance now consistently shows an area of low pressure developing near Texas on Friday before moving east along the Gulf Coast into Saturday.

    As the system approaches the East Coast, guidance generally favors the low tracking northeast toward the North Carolina coast before moving offshore late Sunday into early Monday. This type of track would place Delmarva on the colder, northern side of the storm, increasing the potential for winter weather impacts across the region. A key question remains how close the storm tracks to the coastline, as even small shifts could have a major influence on snowfall totals.

    A strong arctic high pressure system will be positioned to the north, supplying cold air into the Mid Atlantic. Earlier forecast guidance suggested this high might suppress the storm farther south, limiting impacts locally. However, trends over the past 12 to 24 hours show the storm track edging farther north, increasing the likelihood that precipitation spreads into Delmarva.

    Snow probabilities have responded accordingly. Current guidance now indicates a 75 to 95 percent chance of at least 2 inches of snow and a 70 to 85 percent chance of 6 inches or more for areas along and south of the Interstate 95 corridor, with probabilities decreasing farther north.

    Even more impressive with NBM blends of >12 inches of snow are between 50-60% as of this morning. These numbers are notably higher than those from previous forecast cycles and point toward a growing signal for a meaningful winter weather event.

    If this storm materializes, snowfall could begin late Saturday and continue through Sunday, with the potential for lingering impacts into Monday depending on how quickly the system moves away. While confidence in exact snowfall totals remains low, the overall signal for a winter storm affecting at least part of Delmarva is stronger than typically seen at this lead time.

    It is important to note that East Coast winter storms often produce narrow bands of heavy snow, sometimes only 50 to 100 miles wide. With the storm’s key ingredients still thousands of miles away, it is far too early to determine which specific locations will see the highest accumulations. Residents across Delmarva should continue to monitor forecast updates closely over the coming days as details become clearer.

  • A Lot Of Talk About Wintry Weather Jan 6-8th…

    A Lot Of Talk About Wintry Weather Jan 6-8th…

    There has been a ton of speculation over social media about “Major Winter Storm Signal Jan 6-8th” and different variations for click bait and cash grabs for views. For many who know me over the last 15 years, I tell it like it is. And many of these social media pages need to keep their anticipation in check. I will go through the good and the bad for snow lovers with all this hype being shared around the internet about this timeframe.

    So the big take aways is what’s going on with the North America weather pattern changing a bit from this past week to a more colder one. But the biggest issues that people see on these maps is anytime they see a trough in the east immediately go “MAJOR WINTER SIGNAL, MAJOR STORM AHEAD” but there is so much more that goes into play. Yes we are looking at a trough across the eastern US, that’s only the first step. There is some blocking showing up in the arctic with the ECMWF but much weaker with the GFS. Blocking near Greenland helps slow down the overall weather pattern or for all the technical readers out there a -NAO block. So we have two pieces of the puzzle but there is something way more important in my opinion and its what’s going on the west coast.

    And that’s where my excitement starts going down the tubes as a snow lover. We need ridging in the west coast to get the trifecta ingredients. And this is where things start falling short for my liking. Not only that we have polar opposites in guidance between the two major long range models for this range and the placement is not ideal. Ridging along the west coast not only brings the cold air supply with cross polar flow and helps amplify the trough to its east. With this sitting over the Rockies, not the most ideal to get something off our coastlines. I prefer to have it back right at the coast instead but we also have a trough not too far away to the west side. ECMWF is your friend and the GFS is you enemy with the PNA across the west coast. Hard to say which will be correct until one switches as we get closer in time. This is why I have been thinking it’s so dumb to be stating about a storm is happening in this time frame because of the PNA in itself.

    One thing is for sure, we are looking to see some colder weather over in our neck of the woods going into the New Year. As temp anomalies over the next 1-2 week showing increasing confidence of “Below Average Temperatures” in the Mid-Atlantic & New England. Moral of the story, hold your excitement for now and be wary of pages that post this kind of hype and 384 hour snowfall maps claiming this is what’s ahead. It’s just not good and its a spreading terrible false information. It’s a cash grab for getting views and traffic for all the wrong reason. Trust your reliable sources friends.

  • Snowfall Forecast Across Delmarva Weds-Thurs Feb 19-20th

    Snowfall Forecast Across Delmarva Weds-Thurs Feb 19-20th

    A very difficult forecast remains in place as small portions of Delmarva are under the gun for a significant winter storm. A massive shift in the overall storm track the last 24-48 hours taking what would have been a widespread severe winter storm to more of a nuisance across northern and central Delmarva. And quite honestly one of the biggest failures of all numerical models I have seen thus far in my 15 years of doing this. From having a universal 100% trend for days and days with all the medium range guidance to a 200-300 mile shift south over the weekend is mind boggling.

    NBM blends continue to drop across areas of Central Delmarva where there will be a sharp cut off from the northern axis of precipitation. Light accumulations are expected through these areas while further south in Accomack and Northampton counties are still in great shape of significant accumulations of 6 inches or more.

    NAM Model
    GFS Model

    Of course there has to be one that wants to throw a wrench into the mix and that is the NAM model which wants to shift back north again bringing the pain of widespread significant snowfall. Although the NAM is on this ship alone which at this point in the game is the major outlier. Especially for the fact of bringing 17 inches snow across Salisbury, MD which was the original outputs before the weekend timeframe with all the guidance. Just not feasible anymore at this late in the game. Unless the NAM is seeing something that we don’t. Which i doubt is the case.

    NOAA’s WSSI Index highlighting moderate to major impacts from this winter storm across Accomack and Northampton counties.

    In the National Weather Service’s Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI), the “Major Impacts” category indicates potentially life-threatening conditions and significant disruptions to daily life and infrastructure.

    Key Characteristics of “Major Impacts”:

    • Travel may become dangerous or impossible due to heavy snow, ice accumulation, or blizzard conditions.
    • Widespread power outages are likely, especially with ice storms or strong winds.
    • Infrastructure and emergency response may be severely strained, with delayed or limited emergency services.
    • Potential closures of roads, schools, and businesses due to hazardous conditions.
    • Risk to life and property, particularly for those caught in extreme conditions without proper preparation.

    This level is just below the most severe category, “Extreme Impacts,” but still signifies a high-impact winter storm that requires preparation and caution.

  • Significant Winter Storm Set to Impact the Delmarva Region Tuesday into Wednesday

    Significant Winter Storm Set to Impact the Delmarva Region Tuesday into Wednesday

    Another winter storm is set to impact the region as we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a mix of heavy snow, ice, and rain across the Delmarva Peninsula. Snow and wintry precipitation will begin Tuesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday morning, leading to widespread travel disruptions and hazardous conditions.

    This storm is developing as a new area of low pressure forms over the Deep South and tracks northeastward along a stalled frontal boundary. At the same time, a strong high-pressure system to the north will funnel cold air into the region, setting the stage for a classic overrunning event. In this setup, warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico moves over the dense, cold Arctic air advancing southward from Canada, creating widespread heavy snowfall from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic. This process, known in meteorology as isentropic ascent, drives the formation of clouds and precipitation as the warm air rises and cools.

    In a winter storm overrunning setup, isentropic ascent occurs when warm, moist air is forced to rise over a cold, dense air mass at the surface. This typically happens along a stationary front or warm front, where the warm air follows sloping isentropic surfaces (constant potential temperature). As the air rises, it cools adiabatically, leading to cloud formation and precipitation.

    Since winter storms involve subfreezing surface temperatures, this precipitation can fall as snow, sleet, or freezing rain, depending on the temperature profile. Stronger isentropic ascent enhances moisture transport and lift, leading to heavier and more widespread winter precipitation.

    Snowfall Potential and Accumulation Estimates

    The latest ensemble model guidance indicates a significant increase in snowfall probabilities across central and northern Delmarva. There is now a 60-90% chance of at least 3 inches of snow north of the Maryland-Delaware state line, with 40-60% probabilities for accumulations exceeding 6 inches from Delmar, DE to Smyrna, DE.

    The heaviest snowfall totals are expected between the MD/DE line and Smyrna, where an average of 4 to 8 inches is forecast. This extends westward toward Washington, D.C.. However, localized snow bands could produce isolated totals up to 10 inches, particularly across central Delmarva.

    Coastal and Southern Delmarva Impacts

    Further south, near the coastal areas including Berlin and Pocomoke City, the storm will begin as snow but may transition to a mix of snow, sleet, and rain as temperatures rise above freezing. This will reduce overall snowfall totals due to melting overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday.

    Meanwhile, areas further north will remain all snow, though the intensity may be slightly lower compared to central Delmarva. Regardless, this storm is shaping up to be a significant winter weather event across the region, bringing hazardous travel conditions and potential disruptions.

    Stay tuned for updates as forecast details continue to evolve.

  • Potential Winter Storm Threat Looming Early Next Week

    Potential Winter Storm Threat Looming Early Next Week

    Just when it seemed like winter might be winding down, another round of winter weather is on the horizon. After a brief break from bitter cold and snow, forecast models indicate that winter storm threats will return next week, affecting the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. This won’t be just one isolated storm, but several waves of wintry weather are expected. This setup is similar to the major winter storm we experienced in early January, featuring a classic “overrunning” pattern, which often produces significant snowfall in our region. But what exactly is an overrunning winter storm?

    An overrunning winter storm occurs when warm, moisture-laden air moves over a colder, denser air mass at the surface, leading to prolonged periods of wintry precipitation. This happens when warm air from the south collides with cold air entrenched to the north. Unlike last time, however, this system is being driven by a strong Arctic high-pressure system, rather than a blocking low-pressure system to the north. Scientifically, this process is known as Isentropic Ascent—a term used to describe how air is lifted along a temperature gradient.

    ICON Model Output
    ECMWF Model Output
    UKMET Model Output
    CMC Model Output

    Current mid-range model guidance (GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, ICON) consistently shows an overrunning event with multiple waves of low pressure traveling along a stalled frontal boundary. A strong high-pressure system (1038-1040mb) will provide ample cold air north of this boundary, while incoming warm, moist air will fuel heavy precipitation. The exact position of the frontal boundary will determine whether areas experience heavy snow, plain rain, or, in the worst-case scenario, significant icing. Overrunning setups are notorious for producing dangerous ice storms, as cold air remains locked at the surface while warm air aloft causes precipitation to fall as freezing rain or sleet—leading to hazardous road conditions.

    WSSI-P “Minor” Impacts Probability
    WSSI-P “Moderate” Impacts Probability

    The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has already issued impact probabilities for next week’s potential winter storm, indicating a 50-60% chance of Minor Winter Storm Impacts and a 40-60% chance of Moderate Winter Storm Impacts. This suggests that disruptions to travel and infrastructure closures could occur.

    We’ll continue to monitor the latest forecast developments and provide real-time updates as this potential winter storm approaches early next week. Stay tuned for the latest information.

  • Light Snow Event Tonight For Areas Of Southern Delmarva: Dangerous Cold Remains

    Light Snow Event Tonight For Areas Of Southern Delmarva: Dangerous Cold Remains

    A minor to light snowfall event on the way tonight as a rare southern US snowstorm is underway. Areas of Delmarva will see the extreme northern extend of the precipitation shield bringing areas of snow showers tonight, in particular across the VA counties. With extremely cold temperatures in place, this will be a very light and fluffy snow as temperatures are expected to be in the teens by the time the snow arrives later this evening. Most of the snowfall accumulations will be occurring across Northampton and Accomack counties where a short duration 1 to 2 inches are possible. Even though the amount of precipitation is very little of a tenth of a inch or less, temperatures are playing a huge role for “high ratio snowfall”

    The snow-to-liquid ratio is a quantitative measurement of how fluffy or heavy new fallen snow is.  It’s reported as the number of inches of snow that comes from 1 inch of liquid precipitation.  Typical snow-to-liquid ratios vary by region and by the weather pattern producing the snowfall. Air temperature, humidity, and wind speed influence how dense new fallen snow is. The highest snow ratios (or lowest density snow) are usually formed by temperatures that are roughly between 0°F and 10°F, in what is called the “Dendritic Growth Zone.”  This is the regime for forming large dendrites that accumulate with abundant air space between crystals.   New snow grains that are smaller and pack together better form denser snow.  Snow that forms outside of the Dendritic Growth Zone regime will be denser, as will snow that falls through warmer layers or is subject to riming.  Stronger winds will batter snowflakes together as they fall, which breaks down snow crystals into smaller, denser grains.

    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast North Carolina and eastern and
  southeast Virginia.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning
  commutes.
  • Winter Storm On The Way For Delmarva Sunday Into Monday

    Winter Storm On The Way For Delmarva Sunday Into Monday

    🌨️ First Call Snowfall Forecast 🌨️

    Alright folks, as we approach the weekend, we want to inform you about an upcoming winter storm expected to impact our region, particularly from Sunday to Monday. This storm is anticipated to significantly affect the northern areas of Delmarva and northern Maryland, while southern regions may encounter a mix of winter weather, including rain, which will likely reduce snowfall totals.

    Current forecasts predict that a considerable snowfall of 2-4 inches could cover areas along the I-95 corridor, extending from Washington, DC to Wilmington, DE. Communities such as La Plata, Easton, Dover, and Vineland should also prepare for a dusting to 2 inches of snow. For residents south of this region, conditions will begin with rain but are expected to transition to ice and light snow accumulation of less than an inch.

    Snow and rain are projected to commence Sunday morning, intensifying throughout the afternoon. The precipitation is expected to taper off by early Monday morning; however, please brace for dangerously cold temperatures as we start the new week.

    Stay safe and continue to follow us for updates on this evolving weather scenario! ❄️

  • Light To Moderate Snowfall Returning To Delmarva This Weekend

    Light To Moderate Snowfall Returning To Delmarva This Weekend

    Here we go ahead folks with another round of snowfall across the shore heading into this weekend. Although not as a major storm like areas of Delmarva witnessed Sunday into Monday, but more of a headache for the already 8-12 inches that remain on the ground currently.

    A southern stream storm system will slide down through the Southeastern US with arctic air already in place blanketed the Deep South with snow & ice before heading off the Carolina coastlines. While this remains a weaker system overall, areas of light to potentially moderate snow is expected across Central and Southern portions of Delmarva. Heaviest impacts will be down in Accomack & Northampton counties in Virginia here on the shore.

    ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
    SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

    * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
      accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations up to
      one tenth of an inch possible.

    * WHERE...Portions of northeast North Carolina and eastern and
      southeast Virginia.

    * WHEN...From Friday evening through early Saturday afternoon.

    * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

    Snow will begin to move in across the shore starting in the overnight hours Friday through the morning commute on Saturday. This will be a all snow event for the region as bitter cold arctic air remains locked in across much of the Eastern US.

    As it stands right now, Accomack & Northampton counties will likely see the most snowfall of 2-5″ before tapering off. Across the mid-shore, slightly less amounts of 2-4″ and 1-3″ expected from Pocomoke City towards Georgetown where the snow will be a bit lighter in intensity. Depending how far north the precipitation shield is, these totals could go up or down at this time. Areas across Northern Delmarva will only see about a dusting to a inch maybe if the precip shield is generous enough to keep that far north.

    More updates will follow going into tomorrow with any further changes down the line

  • Another Winter Storm Moves Across The Nation From Texas Towards The Mid-Atlantic

    Another Winter Storm Moves Across The Nation From Texas Towards The Mid-Atlantic

    🌨️ As the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions work towards recovery from the significant winter storm that recently impacted the area, we are bracing ourselves for another winter storm on the horizon! This time, the storm is coming from the Deep South, particularly Texas, where people are preparing for several inches of snow and ice starting tomorrow. Even places in the Deep South that usually don’t see snow will experience this major winter weather event!

    🌪️ As the low-pressure system advances into the Southeast, it is expected to spread snow across much of the Midwest, the Carolinas, and into the Mid-Atlantic states. While this storm could have been a significant threat with more interaction from the northern jet stream (potentially leading to an intense East Coast nor’easter this weekend), current models indicate that the storm’s path will remain further south and slightly weaker as it reaches the Eastern USA.

    ❄️ Current analyses suggest light to moderate snowfall accumulations for the Delmarva region, with the heaviest totals anticipated in the southern coastal areas. We’ll continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as we receive more detailed forecasts. Stay safe and stay tuned for more information!

  • 🔍 Another Winter Storm is Potentially Approaching This Weekend On Delmarva ❄️

    🔍 Another Winter Storm is Potentially Approaching This Weekend On Delmarva ❄️

    As we continue to recover from the recent winter storm, we want to keep everyone informed about the potential for yet another system approaching this weekend. This upcoming storm is part of the southern stream system that I mentioned prior to Christmas. Originating from the deep south, forecasters are noting an increasing chance for a snowstorm in the DFW area, and winter storm watches are already in effect.

    At this moment, the overall strength of the storm remains uncertain due to an additional weather disturbance that is currently moving down from Canada. The interaction between these two weather systems will be crucial; if they phase together, we could potentially see a stronger storm developing along the eastern seaboard, which might shape into a classic Nor’easter.

    Current forecasts indicate that we may experience a weaker system, with light to moderate snow accumulations expected. However, given the recent snowfall, this could worsen already hazardous travel conditions in the region. We will be keeping a close eye on the development of this weather system and will provide updates as we receive more information. Stay tuned and stay safe!

  • Winter Storm Safety: Delaware State Police and DelDOT Issue Snow Safety Tips

    Winter Storm Safety: Delaware State Police and DelDOT Issue Snow Safety Tips

    Dover DE:

    As the snow continues to fall across Delaware, state officials are emphasizing safety measures for all residents. The Delaware State Police have issued a series of guidelines aimed at keeping motorists safe during the winter weather:

    • Stay Home if Possible: If you can avoid travel, do so. Conditions can be unpredictable and hazardous.
    • Drive Cautiously: For those who must travel, slow down, keep a safe distance from other vehicles, and ensure your vehicle is free of snow and ice to prevent accidents.
    • Emergency Preparedness: Carry an emergency kit in your car with items like blankets, a flashlight, food, and water. Check road conditions via official channels before setting out.
    • Respect Snow Plows: Do not attempt to pass or crowd snow removal vehicles. The Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT) crews are diligently working to clear the roads, and they need space to operate safely.

    DelDOT has expressed gratitude towards their crews for their relentless efforts during the storm, urging the public to assist by not crowding the plows.

    The Delaware Emergency Management Agency (DEMA) also reminds everyone to check on neighbors, particularly the elderly or those who might need assistance during this time.

    With these safety tips in mind, Delawareans are encouraged to take extra precautions as the winter weather persists. Your safety, and the safety of those around you, is paramount.

  • Significant Winter Storm Ahead For Delmarva Sunday Night Through Tuesday.

    Significant Winter Storm Ahead For Delmarva Sunday Night Through Tuesday.

    Signs continue to push for a significant winter storm on the way from areas of the central Plains towards the Mid-Atlantic states over the next few days with heavy snow and dangerous ice. A few changes in the overall forecast are now in play of a colder and slight shift south in the overall snow axis. Let’s go through the run down once more.

    During the daytime hours on Sunday will we be looking at a sunny but very chilly day with highs struggling to get above freezing before later that night clouds start to increase and the snow moves in. Everyone across the region will start off as snow with temperatures in the 20s. Snow ratios will be up slightly during this time period upwards to 15:1. A more powdery & dry snow as temperatures slowly start to warm into the daytime hours on Monday. From the latest futurecast thus far showing widespread areas of moderate snow in time for the Monday morning rush hour and continue throughout the daytime hours. Trends been showing the cold air locking in place a bit better with the extent of the snow shifting south.

    With the American models the GFS/NAM have trended even more south and a little bit colder overall throughout the event but still promoting the warmest solutions of them all. Mixing once again still remaining a possibility towards areas near Salisbury on southward. Significant snowfall accumulations of snow across Central Delmarva. Also some dangerous ice further south in the battle ground zone to shake things up a bit with sleet and freezing rain. These solution have been trending towards the UKMET and ECMWF runs now from the past couple of days.

    UKMET and the ECMWF have been the most aggressive, colder, and even farthest south solutions out of the bunch over the last several days. Also have been the most persistent with the overall snow axis throughout the last several days. Bringing the most significant amounts from areas of the Kent Sussex line through areas near Fruitland, MD. But also as of this afternoon down to Pocomoke City. But i am worry about mixing of ice down in these areas as well so will be holding them a bit lower in amounts as of now.

    As it stands, we are expected widespread amounts of 6-12 inches throughout much of Central and Northern Delmarva with the potential of a localized heavier band to setup during the day on Monday. Mixing is possible for areas further south of Salisbury to reduce totals down a bit. Regardless, a major winter storm is on the way for the first time in 3 years across the region. Make plans and prepare for snow covered roadways and hazardous road conditions. More updates to follow ahead.

  • WINTER STORM EXPECTED FOR DELMARVA SUN-TUES / FIRST CALL FORECAST

    WINTER STORM EXPECTED FOR DELMARVA SUN-TUES / FIRST CALL FORECAST

    *** WINTER STORM EXPECTED FOR DELMARVA SUN-TUES / FIRST CALL FORECAST ***

    Alright ladies and gentlemen, for what seems like a eternity, a winter storm storm has it’s eyes on areas of Delmarva later this weekend to the start of the new work week. A mixture of heavy snow, ice, and even rain for portions of the peninsula and surrounding regions. Let’s give the run down on my current thoughts and the nightmare of a forecast this is turning out to be.

    With the current thinking, many areas across Central and Northern Delmarva are in for one of the largest storms we have seen since Jan 29th 2022 with several inches of snowfall in the forecast. One of the most frustrating aspects is dealing with the typical battleground we see here on the shore with the mixing of ice and rain on the southside. Let’s go through the model suite now that the midday runs have come into play.

    Let’s first start off with the GFS model which has been the biggest push north in the overall mixing battle ground up to the Kent/Sussex county line. Significantly dropping totals from areas south of Milford Delaware to a light 1-3 inches. But absolutely crushing areas from Dover on northward with some blends up to a foot. The other American Model the NAM has been slightly cooler solution with mixing up to Georgetown. Widespread areas of 4-8 in with this solution with 0.10-0.20″ of ice. These two models have been the warmest and most north of the spread.

    Now lets get to more southerly solutions which includes the ICON/CMC/UKMET/ECMWF. The UKMET & ECMWF have been extremely consistent keeping the colder air in place for the duration of this storm for many days now. And from a statistically aspect, these have the highest performing verification in this medium and short term range. The overall axis of heaviest snow with these solutions keeps it between Smyrna through Salisbury with on average 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts. Mixing pushed farther south of Salisbury and more snow for areas of the southern shore. ICON/CMC did trend south toward these solutions today as well.

    And one last blend is well the super blended model known as the NBM (National Blend Of Models) which takes in the consideration of many different solutions with a blend together. Here is a loop of the last several solutions where you see the trend north and then the trend back south again. So you see where the difficulty sets in.

    With that said for now I’m doing a blend between the both north and south solutions. I do worry about mixing up to areas of the mid shore for the warmer mid level temperatures with these kinds of storms. And with the lack of a high pressure to the northeast to lock the cold air in makes it very difficult for a all over region snow event. Even being within 54-72hr time from storm moving in we still have these battles to deal with. There will likely be changes with the snowfall forecast going forward until we get into the 24-48 hour range. Keep checking back for updates as this winter storm unfolds.

  • Major Winter Storm Threat Increasing For Sunday – Monday

    Major Winter Storm Threat Increasing For Sunday – Monday

    After taking a look over the the midday model runs and we are still on track for Delmarva seeing a major winter storm for the first time in a few years. But there is some key features I’m keeping a close eye on. Let’s get the run down going…

    I am seeing some trends of the system moving ever so slightly northward which will shift the overall axis of the heaviest snow corridor back towards the MD/DE line on northward with areas further south to be dealing with some ice or even rain the further south you go. This is typical as we get closer in time with the wobbles back and forth which makes winter storm forecasting so much fun… Regardless, everyone will start off with snow in the evening hours on Sunday throughout the night but during the day Monday is when we play hide and seek with the mixing line.

    Right now the big dogs the ECMWF and UKMET which statistically have higher verification rates in this range are showing a sizeable storm to region with widespread >4in from the Salisbury region on northward. Overall not much change with those two models from the last 24 hours which really support heavier snow from the MD/DE line up to Smyrna.

    GFS/ICON/CMC are a little bit more north than the ECMWF/UKMET counterparts with the mixing line going up through almost Milford DE will all snow north of that. Heaviest snow axis with these runs start from Dover up to the Mason Dixon. Trends we have to keep a watch on to see if they continue for that.

    Overall, the threat of a winter storm continues to grow here on Delmarva, just the minor details still need to be ironed out. I’ve highlighted the regions I am thinking currently will be seeing the heaviest snowfall from this storm near the MD/DE line on northward. Not quite ready to do actual snowfall totals as of yet, we will likely have those around this time tomorrow. With support from the NWS in Wakefield showing a good chunk of Delaware and the Maryland Eastern Shore of 50-80% probabilities of snowfall amounts 3 inches or great.

    Keep checking back for updates on this impending winter storm.

  • Wintry Valentines Day Weekend Ahead

    Wintry Valentines Day Weekend Ahead

    Get ready for another extreme weather day here on Delmarva where we are going from spring like warmth straight back to winter in a matter of 12-24 hours. Although snow is in the forecast, we are not expecting anything substantial at all to ruin those holiday plans on Sunday.

    With temperatures rising into the mid 60’s on Saturday, a strong arctic front will be moving into the region during the overnight hours allowing temperatures to plummet down to sub-freezing by 7am Sunday. With the interaction of the front, a strong jet stream, and an area of low pressure developing well off the coast will cause a round of snow to develop in the Mid-Atlantic. Depending on the speed and intensity of the precipitation, a Dusting to an inch isn’t out of the question. Now some areas may get 2 inches if they are lucky. By the afternoon hours, snow will move out of the picture with even colder conditions that night.

    Surprisingly, we have decent agreement among the model guidance showing rain transitioning over to a period of snow Sunday morning. Some a little heavier solutions but given the warmer ground we will see a little bit of melting. Regardless, we will keep adding to our above average snowfall totals for the season.

  • Another Winter Storm Looming To Close Out January?

    Another Winter Storm Looming To Close Out January?

    ECMWF Ensemble Low Plots from 00z

    Seems like every weekend this past month we are talking about another snow threat one after another. The only difference is that this one could become a powerful low off our coasts going into Friday and Saturday. With this being the end of the active weather pattern and signs showing for the persistent eastern trough will come to close with a more zonal flow (west to east parallel motion of the jet stream). Ensembles have been very persistent about a coastal low about 200 miles offshore with explosive development (aka bombcyclone) scenario with a rapidly intensifying oceanic storm that moves across the Gulf Stream. And some of these low placement strengths are nothing to take for granted. A good 80% of them are below 986mb pressure levels when its off our coast. By the time it’s off the coast of Cape Cod we are talking down into the 970s.

    Major Global Model Outputs For This Storm

    With a bit of surprise, there is actually some good agreement between the 3 major global models regarding this storm. ECMWF/GFS/CMC/ICON are on the table for a rapidly intensifying storm off our coasts this coming weekend. The biggest difference is how far offshore will it actually be. Every model without a doubt has a round of snow to the region but how close that low is will make a major difference. CMC/ICON are the most offshore out of the bunch with some light precipitation to the region and then dumping over coastal New England. GFS model coming in at 12z is a little bit westward giving Delmarva a good hit with snow. And then the big elephant of the group the ECMWF and the ensembles being very aggressive with a the furthest west solution giving all of Delmarva a major winter storm. And the ECMWF has been very consistent with that. Some of the ensembles give historic levels of snow but that’s extremely far fetched in my opinion.

    Overall do I think we have a explosive developing oceanic storm? That’s on the increase for sure to close out the weather pattern. It’s going to be a matter of how close will this get to our coast will make the big difference. We have the cold air in place ahead of this system to begin with. It’s something that we will be keeping an eye on this week.

  • Winter’s 1-2 Punch To Finish Out The Week

    Winter’s 1-2 Punch To Finish Out The Week

    HRRR Futurecast Only Until 7am Thursday

    Let’s first begin with the snow threat going into Thursday morning. We will be having a arctic front that will be slowing sinking southward across the Mid-Atlantic taking temperatures in the 40’s down to subfreezing. In addition with a transition of rain to snow behind that front with a weak disturbance riding along this front. Some of the high resolution model guidance have a good agreement that a changeover is expected during the morning hours Thursday.

    Cluster of Models Regarding The Snow Threat Thursday Morning

    Now i don’t expect anything significant regarding accumulations with this one but some could pick up a light accumulation. Especially those further north on the shore. We could be looking at some slippery travel in the area during the morning commute Thursday. Colder temperatures will continue to plummet throughout Thursday into Friday just in time for the second and maybe even more significant threat.

    Arctic Front Settling Thursday-Friday

    When the passes through we are going to see a fresh supply of arctic air with temperatures dropping down into the teens Thursday night and really struggling to get anywhere near 30 on Friday. This is setting up the stage for round number 2.

    Model Solutions Regarding Snow Threat Friday-Saturday

    Now this is where the really messy situation begins. Unlike the last bigger snow threat to Delmarva, we have some of the best model consensus I have seen in quite some time which made it easy. Well it’s back to the confusing nightmare once again. So let’s break things down into groups.

    ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES/UKMET/NAM

    This group is the very aggressive solutions where we are showing a January 3rd snowstorm repeat across much of the region. Snow and a lot of it too. With the phasing of two jet streams allowing for a low to develop down in the Gulf Of Mexico and move off the Carolina coast. With a strong 1038mb high to north keeping that fresh arctic air locked in. This is a snow lovers dream with a textbox major snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic. The EURO model has been very persistent with this solution for the last several days but for awhile it was alone in that matter. The recent NAM model even though its not out far enough to really see the impacts, but its very aggressive and further northwest. UKMET has a limited amount of products we have access too but its also following the more northwest solution. Now going into the ensembles, there is a very tight agreement in low placements with the 52 members of this model. With some heavy hitting more reliable models getting on board with this solution, it’s something to take note of for sure.

    Messy Solution With Multiple Energy Pieces Not Phasing

    GFS/RGEM/CMC

    Now this group of models keeping all the pieces of energy separate with a much weaker and suppressed solution. We are going to have model runs like because there is so many different pieces these models are going to have to figure out what to do with them. Not 1, or 2, but 3 vort maxes in play. I’m going to be honest especially with the GFS model, It’s creating some very unrealistic movements with that northern piece of energy near Ohio by ejecting that straight east even though its pashing with that southern one near the Gulf States. Can that still happen? Of course but it’s on the low end of my scale right now. We really need a aircraft to sample the upper atmosphere in the next day or so to be ingested to these models so we can get a bit of better censuses. They did this for the storm occurring for MLK day and that’s why we had a major shift in the track to being much more inland.

    Overall Thoughts

    As it stands now for Friday into Saturday, we have a lot time to work out the kinks and we are going to be seeing some back and forth movement with solutions until we get these pieces of energy into range of observational data and or a aircraft to do research into the atmosphere the next 24 hours. I will be keeping a very close eye on this one that’s for sure.

  • Major Coastal Storm On The Way Sunday-Monday

    Major Coastal Storm On The Way Sunday-Monday

    GFS Model Output For Sunday

    A very dynamic storm system is on the way for the Eastern US going into this weekend. Widespread areas of heavy snow, freezing rain, sleet, and rainfall are all on the table stretching from the deep south all the way into New England. A classic Miller-B type of Nor’easter.

    500MB Pattern

    Storms that come in from the west (up the Ohio Valley) are usually referred to as “Miller Type-B” storms. These storms produce precipitation in the Midwest/Ohio Valley and have a defined surface low that is moving toward the Appalachian Mountains from the west. As these storms approach the mountains, they lose their coherent/compact surface low center and the low re-develops along the East Coast. When this re-development (a.k.a. “center-jump”) happens, the storm can still produce snow over all of the state.

    NAM Forecast Regarding Ice Threat

    With a storm diving straight from Canada across the Northern Plains will run directly into the sub-tropical jet-stream. Tapping into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to really give some power to this low. I have a big concern for those in the Western Carolina’s and Northern Georgia regarding the ice threat. With cold air damming present along the Appalachians and the arctic high to the north, this is not a good situation for residents in the Southeast US.

    Great Model Conesus On Track Today

    With the energy associated with this system now over land on the West Coast, we are getting a fairly firm track on where this system is going to go. Unfortunately those on Delmarva hoping for another big snowstorm, this is not the one. With a track of the low pressure right over the Peninsula, a lot of warm air will surge in. Although areas may start off as a snow/sleet mix will change over to all rain once the low pressure center gets closer. Our friends on the Maryland Western Shore will have a little bit longer duration of snow and sleet thanks to Cold Air Damming before they will change over to all rain as well.

    Snow Depth Forecast

    Those who live along the Appalachian mountains in Western North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, and Central PA are in for a doozy of a snowstorm Sunday and Monday. Widespread areas of 6 plus are definitely likely. Areas like Washington DC through Frederick Maryland could sneak in some light accumulations at the start being turning into a sloppy mess once temperatures start rising above freezing when the low approaches.

  • Storm Signal Jan 16-17th / Winter Storm Looming?

    Storm Signal Jan 16-17th / Winter Storm Looming?

    GFS Model Showing Major Snowstorm

    Like I was mentioning yesterday, we are heading into a fairly volatile pattern to finish out the month of January. With the Polar vortex anchoring around the Hudson Bay, this will allow a persistent long wave trough across the Eastern half of the nation. And boy these long range models are showing a train of them to say the least. As of now there is no one solution in this matter. In fact there is two scenarios in which this system will go.

    Vorticity Forecast

    First off, This piece of energy will be associated with the northern stream jet-stream coming down from Canada. Which normally our coastal storms like to be coming from the sub-tropical jets stream from the south. But being this is diving deep down into the Gulf States, Its going to pay the southern stream a visit.

    Here’s the two scenarios we are looking at right now.

    Two possible outcomes for this storm the 16-17th
    ECMWF showing a suppressed solution

    Here’s the two possible outcomes I am seeing so far. All depends on two factors, one with the energy diving southward and becomes very suppressed by a strong area of high pressure over the Northeastern United States (Option 1). This will keep the storm very far south delivering some light snow to areas of the deep south. And a much weaker solution.

    GFS showing a major storm with scenario 2

    Option two would be a large snowstorm to start back over towards Missouri, plowing for the deep south and then intensify rapidly as a sub 980mb low off of our coasts. The high pressure system suppress the storm to the south and a very steep ridge over the western US allowing this piece of energy to become “negative tilted”.

    Both options are possible at this time, we just need to see more consistency in either direction to know that this is a false alarm or we got another big storm on our hands down the road.

  • Record Heat To Accumulating Snow In 36 Hours

    Record Heat To Accumulating Snow In 36 Hours

    Confidence is increasing for snow on Delmarva Monday Morning

    Going to be in for some wacky weather over the next 36-48 hours. First off off we are dealing with very mild temperatures in the 60’s before a arctic front passage pushing through Sunday evening. The arctic front will push through dropping temperatures down below freezing and then stall just south of the Delmarva region. A piece of southern stream energy with the sub-tropical jet will begin to interact with the arctic front having a redevelopment of precipitation and amplification of an area of low pressure to move off the Carolina coasts.

    Different Model Solutions For Monday Morning

    A good blend of different solutions showing that areas of central and southern Delmarva to pick up a light accumulation of snowfall. Some extreme solutions like the RAP and GFS showing a significant snowstorm to the region with several inches of snowfall but I’m going against that extreme. But i would not doubt some light accumulations are not out of the question.