As a powerful storm system begins to develop across the Central Plains, rounds of severe weather are expected from the deep south towards the Mid-Atlantic. As the month turns a new, we are now in Meteorological Spring and the severe weather threats begin showing up across the country.
As a strong area of low pressure lifts up towards the Great Lakes, a tight pressure gradient will create tons of wind energy all over the eastern portions of the United States. On the warm side of the system as a powerful cold front advances eastward, instability and moisture coming from the Gulf will create a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to move through the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon.
A Slight Risk Of Severe Weather is in place across the Delmarva region down towards areas of the Carolinas. Primary threats will include strong damaging winds and the chance of a isolated tornado can not be ruled out. Storm Prediction Center meteorologist Jeremy Kerr had this to say about the overall threat.
"Models indicate that surface dew points may increase into the 60s F
in a corridor across the Carolinas through Virginia during the day.
Latest NAM forecast soundings suggest that this might occur across
parts of the Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain prior to the
arrival of a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf
States. Although lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to
be rather weak, weak near-surface destabilization might become
sufficient to support a risk for tornadoes and/or damaging straight
line wind gusts, given forecast very large, clockwise curved
low-level hodographs.
In the wake of this initial band of convection, beneath a developing
dry slot, northward moisture advection and insolation to the lee of
the Blue Ridge may contribute to modest destabilization by late
Wednesday afternoon. It appears that this will be aided by the
leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling spreading to the east of
the Appalachians, and accompanied by increasing thunderstorm
development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Although
forecast soundings suggest that low-level hodographs may become more
modest by this time as the stronger low-level jet core spreads
offshore, the environment may still become conducive to supercells
with potential to produce severe wind, hail and perhaps a tornado."
Including the threat for severe weather, high non-thunderstorm wind damage is possible with a strengthening low level jet stream across the region. Model guidance has been showing very strong low level Jetstream winds of 60-80kts at 5000 feet which can be brought down to the surface from heavy rain or thunderstorms.
As of this time, strong winds of 45 upwards to 60 mph are possible as this powerful cold front arrives during the afternoon hours on Wednesday. Winds of this magnitude can bring down trees and powerlines to create sporadic areas of power outages. Winds will continue to be strong after the cold front passes through as the pressure gradient remaining strong through Thursday.
