This year’s NFL draft may buck the recent trend of multiple quarterbacks being selected early, with experts predicting a significant dropoff after Fernando Mendoza is chosen first overall by Las Vegas.
Unlike the quarterback-heavy drafts of 2021 and 2024, this year’s class appears top-heavy, with a substantial talent gap between Mendoza and the next signal-caller on most draft boards, Ty Simpson.
Betting markets show Simpson as a borderline first-round selection, with odds placing his draft position at around pick 24.5. Should he slip even slightly, the opening round could feature just a single quarterback for only the third time in nearly two and a half decades.
Historical data shows only two instances since 2000 where one quarterback was drafted in round one: Kenny Pickett going 20th overall in 2022 and EJ Manuel selected 16th in 2013.
Recent drafts have averaged 3.3 quarterbacks in the first round over the past dozen years, including a record-tying six selections in 2024 and five each in 2021 and 2018. Oregon’s Dante Moore, who likely would have been drafted highly, chose to remain in college for another season, aided by Name, Image and Likeness opportunities.
Interestingly, drafts with limited first-round quarterback selections have historically produced successful late-round finds. Brock Purdy became Mr. Irrelevant in 2022 after Pickett’s selection, while Geno Smith went in round two following Manuel in 2013. Hall of Fame quarterbacks Drew Brees was a second-rounder in 2001 after Michael Vick went first overall, and Tom Brady famously lasted until the sixth round in 2000.
Should Las Vegas select Mendoza, it would mark their first opening-round quarterback since taking JaMarcus Russell first overall in 2007, a pick that became one of history’s biggest draft disappointments.
Only three franchises have longer droughts selecting first-round quarterbacks: Seattle last chose one in 1993 with Rick Mirer, Dallas in 1989 with Troy Aikman, and New Orleans in 1971 with Archie Manning.
Draft positioning has seen significant movement this year, with the latest trade sending Cincinnati’s 10th overall pick to the New York Giants in exchange for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence.
This marks just the sixth time in the common draft era that at least six teams possess multiple first-round selections, with nine teams accomplishing this feat in 2022 setting the record.
Teams holding multiple first-rounders include the New York Jets, Cleveland, Kansas City, Miami, Dallas, and now the Giants. Meanwhile, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Denver currently lack first-round picks.
Jacksonville faces their first opening round absence since joining the NFL in 1995, following last year’s trade to acquire Travis Hunter with the second overall selection. Their 31-year streak ranks fourth-longest in common draft era history.
Cincinnati’s drought would end their longest first-round absence since 1989, while Pittsburgh holds the record with 52 consecutive years of first-round picks from 1968-2019. Detroit could claim the longest active streak at 33 years if they select in round one.
The Giants now possess a rare opportunity with two top-10 selections at fifth and 10th overall, similar to their 2022 draft when they selected Kayvon Thibodeaux fifth and Evan Neal seventh.
Only four other teams in the past 25 drafts have made two top-10 picks, all occurring since 2018: Cleveland with Baker Mayfield and Denzel Ward, the Jets with Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner, Houston with C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson, and Chicago with Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze.
Ohio State could dominate early proceedings with Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs, and Carnell Tate all projected as potential top-10 selections. The last school to place four players in the top 10 was Michigan State in 1967 with Bubba Smith, Clint Jones, George Webster, and Gene Washington.
Seven schools have managed three top-10 picks in the common draft era, with Ohio State accomplishing this in 2016 through Joey Bosa, Ezekiel Elliott, and Eli Apple. Alabama last achieved this feat in 2021 with Jaylen Waddle, Patrick Surtain II, and DeVonta Smith.
Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love could end a seven-year drought of running backs selected in the top five, with oddsmakers setting his draft position at 4.5. No running back has gone in the top five since Saquon Barkley went fifth to the Giants in 2018.
This seven-year span represents the longest stretch without a top-five running back in common draft history, surpassing the four-year period from 1970-73. The position’s declining value reflects the league’s evolution toward pass-heavy offenses.
Love’s teammate Jadarian Price could become the second running back selected, which would mark the first time the initial two running backs drafted came from the same college program.
