A recent trade agreement between the United States and China regarding agricultural purchases could lead Brazil to redirect its farming exports to new markets, according to industry analysts speaking Monday.
The arrangement, which the White House announced Sunday, may create opportunities for Brazil to fill market spaces vacated by American agricultural products as the US concentrates on shipping to Brazil’s primary trading partner, experts suggest.
However, specialists caution that determining the full effects of this agreement on Brazil’s farming industry may be too early, though the nation’s agricultural competitiveness could enable expansion into different markets.
Government statistics show Brazil exported $55.22 billion worth of agricultural products to China in 2025, representing roughly one-third of the sector’s international sales for that period. Soybeans made up $34.5 billion of those exports, while meat products totaled $9.82 billion.
The White House projects China will purchase an additional 25 million metric tons of American soybeans, and if these transactions occur, Brazil would probably adjust its trade patterns accordingly, according to Stag International brokerage.
“A Chinese soybean purchase program of 25 million tons would mainly displace buyers outside China toward Brazil and other origins,” the brokerage said in a report.
Stag International notes that Brazil maintains structural advantages in competition and, with projections showing a record harvest exceeding 180 million tons in 2026, should continue securing substantial demand from markets beyond China.
Industry organizations Anec and Abiove had not provided responses to inquiries at the time of reporting.
In an unexpected development, Brazil might increase beef shipments to America if the country—dealing with limited supply—sends more of its own beef products to China.
“In principle, if the renewal of U.S. plant approvals (by China) is confirmed, there could be interest from the United States in recapturing part of its share in the Chinese market. Given the large shortfall in U.S. production to meet domestic demand, opportunities could emerge for other countries, such as Brazil, to expand sales to the U.S.,” said Paulo Mustefaga, CEO of industry group Abrafrigo.
Chinese customs records from Friday revealed that China has renewed over 400 expired export permits for American beef processing facilities, following a summit in Beijing between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“It is worth noting that the United States, like Brazil, is also subject to a quota on beef exports under safeguard measures (by China), which should limit any expansion of U.S. sales to the Chinese market,” Mustefaga added.
