A big tone shift with the overnight model runs shows full speed ahead of a tropical system moving in from the Carolinas up into the Chesapeake Bay region. Which is the worst case scenario for any track of a storm system here on the shore.
Many of the high resolution model guidance showing heavy rain beginning to move in starting in the evening hours on Friday from south to north as the winds start to increase from the east. Winds could be gusting as high as 50 mph along the coastlines with 40-50 for the inland locations. Along with the major waves coming ashore of 10-20 feet. Combination of a high tide cycle, heavy rainfall, strong long fetched onshore winds, coastal flooding is going to be a big problem.
Early indications from a few days ago had flooding in the minor to borderline moderate levels. Well with high confidence now with the storm track and overall strength, moderate to potential major levels of coastal flooding exist for all water ways along the Atlantic, Delaware Bay, and of course the inland bays in Sussex, Kent and Worcester counties. Inundation of 1-3 feet are on the table on Saturday.
Rainfall with tropical moisture is surely going to be a issue for areas along coastal Delaware down the Bay Bridge Tunnel. across the mid-shore we will average of 2 to 5 inches of rain. Highest for those farthest south and east.
Now my least favorite topic, tornadoes. If we do have a tropical system on our hands rather than a hybrid or extra tropical cyclone, being on the right side of it is never a good thing. Slight curvature in the hodographs suggest we do have some turning in the atmosphere. Whether we have the little bit of instability remains to be in question. Tornadoes are a possibility but not with very high confidence right now.
Prepare for a potentially major storm system heading into this weekend.