A very difficult forecast remains in place as small portions of Delmarva are under the gun for a significant winter storm. A massive shift in the overall storm track the last 24-48 hours taking what would have been a widespread severe winter storm to more of a nuisance across northern and central Delmarva. And quite honestly one of the biggest failures of all numerical models I have seen thus far in my 15 years of doing this. From having a universal 100% trend for days and days with all the medium range guidance to a 200-300 mile shift south over the weekend is mind boggling.
NBM blends continue to drop across areas of Central Delmarva where there will be a sharp cut off from the northern axis of precipitation. Light accumulations are expected through these areas while further south in Accomack and Northampton counties are still in great shape of significant accumulations of 6 inches or more.
Of course there has to be one that wants to throw a wrench into the mix and that is the NAM model which wants to shift back north again bringing the pain of widespread significant snowfall. Although the NAM is on this ship alone which at this point in the game is the major outlier. Especially for the fact of bringing 17 inches snow across Salisbury, MD which was the original outputs before the weekend timeframe with all the guidance. Just not feasible anymore at this late in the game. Unless the NAM is seeing something that we don’t. Which i doubt is the case.
NOAA’s WSSI Index highlighting moderate to major impacts from this winter storm across Accomack and Northampton counties.
In the National Weather Service’s Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI), the “Major Impacts” category indicates potentially life-threatening conditions and significant disruptions to daily life and infrastructure.
Key Characteristics of “Major Impacts”:
- Travel may become dangerous or impossible due to heavy snow, ice accumulation, or blizzard conditions.
- Widespread power outages are likely, especially with ice storms or strong winds.
- Infrastructure and emergency response may be severely strained, with delayed or limited emergency services.
- Potential closures of roads, schools, and businesses due to hazardous conditions.
- Risk to life and property, particularly for those caught in extreme conditions without proper preparation.
This level is just below the most severe category, “Extreme Impacts,” but still signifies a high-impact winter storm that requires preparation and caution.