A potential snow event is taking shape for Sunday night into Monday as a dynamic weather pattern evolves. Heading into the weekend, an Arctic boundary is expected to push through the region, bringing temperatures into the upper 40s along with rain. However, a secondary piece of energy trailing behind the front will interact with the boundary, allowing a new low-pressure system to rapidly develop. This setup could result in light to moderate snow accumulations across parts of the area.
Model Analysis and Comparisons
ECMWF (European Model):
Currently one of the most reliable models, the ECMWF suggests a light snow event affecting much of Delmarva and extending into the western shore of Maryland. Projected snowfall totals range between 1 and 4 inches, which aligns with current trends. However, areas along the southern shore may experience a mix of rain and snow due to the proximity of the low-pressure center and the Arctic front.
UKMET, CMC, and RGEM Models:
These models present a less favorable scenario for snowfall on the shore, with a more northern storm track that shifts the focus of snow accumulation to Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and extreme northwestern Maryland. The CMC and RGEM in particular show no significant snow accumulations for Delmarva. The UKMET, however, highlights a snow band producing 2 to 4 inches across northern Delmarva, aligning more closely with the ECMWF in terms of low-pressure positioning.
GFS Model:
The GFS takes a more expansive approach, forecasting widespread snowfall across the region. Accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are indicated from Easton to Dover and northward toward Wilmington. However, the GFS has shown considerable variability and currently holds the lowest verification rate among the models.
Key Takeaways
Confidence is increasing for another accumulating snow event across the region late Sunday into Monday. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact track of the low-pressure system and snow totals, current trends suggest a light to moderate event is possible, particularly for snow-prone areas on Delmarva. The National Blend of Models (NBM) also supports the potential for snowfall, giving some hope to snow enthusiasts before the arrival of extreme cold next week.
Stay tuned for updates as this system develops.