A strong signal for above-normal temperatures is shaping up across much of the eastern United States as we head into the January 8–12, 2026 timeframe, according to the latest 6–10 day temperature outlook issued by NOAA on January 2.
The outlook shows a broad and confident area of above-average temperatures extending from the Mississippi Valley eastward to the Atlantic Coast. This includes the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Southeast, and much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In these areas, probabilities favoring above-normal temperatures range from 60% to as high as 90%, indicating a strong likelihood that temperatures will trend warmer than what is typical for early January.
For the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delmarva, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, the signal is particularly robust. Persistent ridging in the upper atmosphere is expected to keep Arctic air bottled up well to the north, allowing milder air to dominate. This pattern would favor daytime highs running several degrees above normal, with fewer opportunities for sustained cold or wintry weather during this period.
In contrast, below-normal temperatures are favored across portions of the western United States, especially parts of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest. These regions show a 33–60% probability of cooler-than-average conditions, suggesting a more active Pacific pattern delivering cooler air and potentially unsettled weather.
Areas of the northern Rockies and portions of the interior West are expected to remain near seasonal averages, lying along the transition zone between the cooler West and warmer East.
Alaska shows a split pattern, with below-normal temperatures favored across much of the mainland, while parts of the southern coast lean above normal. Hawaii is expected to see above-average temperatures statewide.
Overall, the pattern supports a continuation of a relatively mild January for large portions of the eastern U.S., potentially limiting snow and ice opportunities while increasing the risk of rapid snowmelt in areas that currently have snowpack.