Many of us have been eagerly anticipating relief from the bitter cold, not only for our comfort but also for some respite from the high costs of heating our homes. Over the last 30 days, we’ve experienced one of the coldest stretches in recent years. In fact, this period ranks as the 6th coldest since 1981, with temperatures averaging a remarkable 9 degrees below normal. However, after enduring weeks of frigid conditions, we’re finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel as January draws to a close and February begins.
The dramatic shift in weather patterns can be attributed to a significant change in the overall Northern Hemisphere setup. The persistent lobe of the Polar Vortex, which has been entrenched over the eastern half of the United States, is finally breaking down. This change is ushering in a new phase, with a deep trough developing across the western United States. As a result, Pacific air is beginning to flow more consistently across the lower 48 states. Here in the East, ridging is starting to take hold, allowing for a warmer southerly flow to bring much-needed relief from the cold.
Now, while we’re not expecting a dramatic swing to extreme warmth akin to the 30-40 degrees below normal temperatures we’ve endured, the return to near-average conditions will be a welcome change. For our region on the Eastern Shore, average temperatures in the mid-40s will feel almost balmy in comparison. In fact, some days may even reach the 50s, which, after this prolonged cold snap, might feel like a veritable heatwave.
Looking ahead to the next 1-2 weeks, the outlook remains promising. Warmer conditions are expected to persist as February gets underway. Beyond that, the latest 3-4 week outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates above-average temperatures for much of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States. While this signals a reprieve from the deep freeze, the question remains: are we done with the cold and snow for the season? Only time will tell, but for now, we can enjoy a much-deserved break from the relentless chill.