We are getting closer and closer to our typical Severe Weather Season here on the shore. And we get a bit of a taste for it on Saturday. Now here’s the setup we are looking at.
First off we have a fairly strong area of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes region with a strengthening mid level Jetstream across the Mid-Atlantic States. That’s the first set of ingredients for the storm setup for tomorrow.
Now storm formation will be isolated in nature based on the latest high resolution model guidance. One thing is for sure we got the warmer temperatures and bit of surface moistures with dew points getting into the 60’s. So it’s going to be a little bit muggy out there by the early afternoon hours.
Now we will see ample instability and wind shear across the region before our cold front arrives during the evening hours. MLCAPE (a product used to measure instability) showing values in the moderate instability category which is very crucial for thunderstorm development. Not to mention with the decent amount of instabilty, mid level lapse rates are fairly steep as well. Anytime we get Lapse Rates in the mid levels over 7C/km, that increases our hail threat just a bit with the colder air higher into the atmosphere. This is why we have a bit of a higher threat for seeing quarter size hail in storms that may develop. Not to mention we have some decent bulk shear (wind shear in a storm environment). 50-60kts is more than plenty to get a mix of line segments or even a couple of isolated supercell thunderstorms.
Now in production for a little while, we have been working very hard at developing to really narrow down tornado threats in a 0-10 scale (0-100%). We are testing the waters on this one since there is a little bit of a tornado threat going into tomorrow. our TEHI product showing a level 1-2 threat out of 10 for tornadoes here on the shore. meaning storms will have a 10-20% chance of producing a tornado. Low level environment showing sufficient turning in the lowest levels which is very important for tornadogenisis.
One limiting factor for storms tomorrow is the time of year we are in. Our coastal water temperatures do play a role in our storm threats with them being in the upper 40’s. This can create some stable air near the surface and cause storms to climb upscale and scrapping any tornado threat all together.