Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Evening

With the extremely warm temperatures on this March day here on the shore, we have a strong cold front on the move this evening. With barely any instability in place today, this storm threat is strong shear dominate. We have the chance of some storms that could reach severe limits during the evening hours today. Computer guidance has been hinting at a thin squall line to develop along the front with already very strong surface winds expected today.

Slight Risk of Severe Weather For Northern Delmarva and Northern Maryland

The biggest driver for today’s Slight Risk of Severe Weather is the very strong low level shear and steep lapse rates. With strong winds fairly close to the surface and with a strengthening low level jet to 60 knots, when that front arrives some of those stronger winds aloft will be brought down to the surface.

Steep Low Level Lapse Rates indicating some great mixing of the stronger winds aloft to be brought down to the surface.

Anytime you see Lapse Rates greater that 7.5 in the lowest levels, that’s the perfect case scenario for a damaging wind potential. Damaging winds are really the only threat with today’s setup. Tornado threat is very low today because the wind direction throughout the atmosphere is very linear. Tornadoes need turning wind form the surface on up.

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