Snow, Or Not To Snow? That’s The Difficult Question.

In the Pinpoint 14 Storm Center, we have been keeping an eye on a potential sneaky storm system to ride along an Arctic front Late Tuesday into Wednesday. Models the last few days have been trending a bit further north and west but a tricky battleground on agreement within the model suite. Here’s a run down of the model outputs below.

GFS Model Output For Wednesday

GFS Model has been a consentient robust solution to include snow showers from the MD/DE line northward with a light accumulation event during the morning hours Wednesday. This solution has been constant the last 48 hours.

NAM Model Output For Wednesday

The NAM model was one of the first models to show this solution and is not standing down from it either the last 48 hours. Although the most aggressive out of the solutions, It’s also one of the outliers due to the very high end extent to this. Producing several inches snow across the Maryland Western Shore to 1-3 inches on Delmarva.

ECMWF (European Model) The Biggest Fork In The Suite

It’s been a trade mark for many years to know that the ECMWF model is the so called “King” of all model guidance. It’s very hard to discount the ECMWF model during any situation but this is the one that has me on edge with showing absolutely nothing across Delmarva with a very weak wave well off to the south. Now in the past, the ECMWF does have a tendency to place low pressure centers further south and east in response to something called “Convective Feedback” in falsely placing the low pressure center in not the right place. Mind you this is the only model solution that shows this scenario. So this boxing match shows a 1 v 5 fight with the Euro model being the heavy weight champion. Although the euro in percentages as a outlier as a “median” to the other models, I would not throw this out at all. There’s been plenty of times the Euro wins in the end in weaker systems like this.

RGEM Model Output For Wednesday
CMC Model Output For Wednesday.

Now we will talk about the Canadian Models. The CMC and the higher resolution RGEM models both show robust scenarios just like the GFS and NAM with a light snow event across Maryland and Delaware.

High Res WRF-FV3 Model Output For Wednesday

I’ve decided to include one of the experimental models for the WRF (CAMS) to the mix showing I would say if you blended all the guidance together and you would get this as a so called “Average”. This is showing a very light snow event with little to no accumulations across Delmarva.

Probabilities Of Seeing Snow/Mixing With The Blend Of Data

In this case scenario, If the European model does end up being the outlier in this group, this is where the greatest potential for seeing snowfall would be based on that. But if the ECMWF keeps remaining firm going into tomorrow, that’s a whole different story. If we can get the ECMWF to trend with the others, It’s game on for the snow birds here on Delmarva. We will continue to monitor throughout the next day to get these fine details worked out.

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