While we are now in the short term model guidance, we had a big shift in the timing of this event. On Tuesday many of the medium range model guidance showed this event to be extremely underwhelming and much later into the night. Now into Wednesday, we have pushed the timing up about 6-8 hours into the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday. That big shift in timing boosted our chances to match with the SPC’s Slight Risk of Severe Weather they had all week.
A good agreement between the HRRR/RAP as well as the CAMS showing ample thunderstorm development across the Mid-Atlantic States. An increase in instability as well with dew points going into the lower 60’s. Storms should be developing from west to east from 2-10pm.
With the main threat being wind damage within these storms. No surprise with the strong winds aloft and in the lower level Jetstream. Strong winds at 5000 feet of 60-70 kts giving ample speed shear for storms to produce some gusty downbursts. Using TEHI for the tornadic threat and the good news is once more, fairly low probabilities. TEHI values under 2 (20%) chance of these storms producing a tornado in this environment. Also when we take a look at the Updraft Helicity Streaks, there is very little if any which is good news for shows storms with potential rotation on the models.