Update on Hurricane Ian:
Well ladies and gentlemen, looks like we finally got our drought busting storm on the table for this upcoming weekend. Dangerous Major Hurricane Ian just passed over Cuba and was completely unphased and it’s full steam ahead toward the west coast of Florida. Ian is expected to make landfall somewhere along the Florida coast as a major hurricane and continue to move towards the northeast. Beyond that point is where things get very cruical.
Forecast Tracks Means Everything Regarding Impacts
Over the last 12 hours, forecast guidance has been taking Ian a bit further east away from the Panhandle of Florida. Even south of Tampa Bay where that has been the biggest threat in the past day or two. Now barreling in through Central Florida. Beyond that is where things get very complicated in the track.
The reason Ian has had a big shift east is because of a large trough over Eastern Canada driving the atmospheric flow further east. But that wont last long. A strong surface high is going to be replacing the trough across the Great Lakes and Northeast USA. This tells Ian, oh no you are not going anywhere and bring the hurricane back towards the northwest due to the blocking high. The real question comes in too, does this go off the coast of Florida enough to gain a little bit of steam before rotating back into the Carolina’s? Very possible. Regardless the storms center will struggle to advance north past the Mid-Atlantic states. So the only place it can go is off our coast! Just like a nor’easter!
Impacts For Delmarva As Of Now
Impacts of Ian should be moving into the area beginning late Friday into Saturday morning with onshore flow and the rain bands. Although winds will be steady from the east, each high tide should be watched since this has the potential for being a long duration event especially for our coastal locations. Seas will be building as the pressure gradient begins to tighten up from the remnants of Ian slamming into the high pressure to the north.
The biggest issue I’m seeing right now is the amount of rain we could be seeing. We have multiple areas of moderate and severe drought here on Delmarva. With some of the model guidance and the latest from the WPC (Weather Prediction Center), we could be looking at some decent rainfall amounts. WPC being very bullish with areas of 5-10 inches over the course of the next several days. GFS/ECMWF showing a range of 4-7 inches by Tuesday. Which would be enough for inland flooding concerns.
Winds will be slowly increasing as the days go on. Nothing major but wind gusts 30-40 mph starting Saturday through Tuesday will be the biggest problems for our coastal regions.
Plenty of more details need to be ironed out as we get closer to the weekend regarding full impact of Ian here on Delmarva.