A fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted from the Sun on the evening of October 8, 2024, and is projected to reach Earth by October 10. This CME, associated with a long-duration X1.8 solar flare, is moving at an estimated speed of 1200 to 1300 km/s. With this velocity, the CME could arrive as early as the morning or midday of October 10 (EDT). Experts are warning of a possible G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm upon its arrival and throughout its passage.
What Makes This Storm Significant?
The CME, triggered by an X-class solar flare, is moving at a particularly high speed. These types of solar flares and subsequent CMEs can cause significant disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field upon impact. If the storm reaches G4 (Severe) on the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center’s geomagnetic storm scale, the consequences could be far-reaching.
G4 storms can cause voltage control problems in power grids, affect spacecraft operations, and lead to widespread HF radio blackouts on the daylight side of Earth. In addition, auroras could be visible much farther from the poles than usual, potentially gracing the skies of lower latitudes with a stunning display of the Northern and Southern Lights.
Arrival and Impact Timing
Current forecasts suggest that the CME could reach Earth as early as the morning to midday of October 10. However, the precise timing and intensity of the geomagnetic storm won’t be known until the CME is approximately 1 million miles from Earth. At this point, the DSCOVR and ACE satellites will measure its speed, density, and magnetic field characteristics. These factors will determine whether the storm will hit with severe intensity or something less.
What Does a G4 Storm Mean?
A G4 storm is classified as “severe” and has the potential to cause significant disruptions across multiple sectors:
- Power Systems: Voltage irregularities may occur, especially in high-latitude regions. Some transformers could experience damage, though modern grid systems are better equipped to handle these situations.
- Satellite Operations: Satellites in low-Earth orbit could experience increased drag, forcing operators to make corrections. Communications and GPS signals could also be temporarily disrupted, potentially impacting air traffic control, maritime navigation, and other services.
- Radio Communications: High-frequency (HF) radio communications, critical for aviation and emergency services, may face widespread blackouts, particularly on the daylight side of the planet.
- Auroras: One of the more enjoyable effects of geomagnetic storms is the appearance of auroras. During a G4 event, auroras can extend much farther from the poles, potentially being visible across parts of Europe, the northern United States, and even farther south in some cases.
Preparing for the Storm
Governments, businesses, and individuals should prepare for the potential effects of this geomagnetic storm. Power grid operators are monitoring the situation closely, and satellite operators may place their spacecraft in safe modes to mitigate damage from solar particles. For the public, it’s a good idea to charge essential devices ahead of time in case of brief power outages and monitor space weather updates.
Those who live in areas where auroras might be visible should keep an eye on real-time space weather updates and consider venturing outside for what could be an unforgettable display.
Stay Updated
We won’t know the full characteristics of this CME until its proximity to Earth allows for satellite measurements. To stay informed on the latest updates and space weather predictions, please visit our webpage. Regular updates will be provided as more data becomes available from DSCOVR, ACE, and other space weather monitoring satellites.
Prepare for potential disruptions and, if you’re lucky, be ready to witness a breathtaking natural phenomenon in the night sky.