Potential Winter Storm Threat Looming Early Next Week

Just when it seemed like winter might be winding down, another round of winter weather is on the horizon. After a brief break from bitter cold and snow, forecast models indicate that winter storm threats will return next week, affecting the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. This won’t be just one isolated storm, but several waves of wintry weather are expected. This setup is similar to the major winter storm we experienced in early January, featuring a classic “overrunning” pattern, which often produces significant snowfall in our region. But what exactly is an overrunning winter storm?

An overrunning winter storm occurs when warm, moisture-laden air moves over a colder, denser air mass at the surface, leading to prolonged periods of wintry precipitation. This happens when warm air from the south collides with cold air entrenched to the north. Unlike last time, however, this system is being driven by a strong Arctic high-pressure system, rather than a blocking low-pressure system to the north. Scientifically, this process is known as Isentropic Ascent—a term used to describe how air is lifted along a temperature gradient.

Current mid-range model guidance (GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, ICON) consistently shows an overrunning event with multiple waves of low pressure traveling along a stalled frontal boundary. A strong high-pressure system (1038-1040mb) will provide ample cold air north of this boundary, while incoming warm, moist air will fuel heavy precipitation. The exact position of the frontal boundary will determine whether areas experience heavy snow, plain rain, or, in the worst-case scenario, significant icing. Overrunning setups are notorious for producing dangerous ice storms, as cold air remains locked at the surface while warm air aloft causes precipitation to fall as freezing rain or sleet—leading to hazardous road conditions.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has already issued impact probabilities for next week’s potential winter storm, indicating a 50-60% chance of Minor Winter Storm Impacts and a 40-60% chance of Moderate Winter Storm Impacts. This suggests that disruptions to travel and infrastructure closures could occur.

We’ll continue to monitor the latest forecast developments and provide real-time updates as this potential winter storm approaches early next week. Stay tuned for the latest information.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *