Mid-Atlantic Region Fire and Drought Conditions: November Update

As October drew to a close, the Mid-Atlantic region, along with much of the Eastern U.S., grappled with significant fire potential, driven by an exceptionally dry autumn and widespread drought conditions. After a brief lull in September, fire activity surged in early October, prompting the National Preparedness Level to peak at Level 5 on October 8—the third time this year that fire danger hit this critical threshold. Although fire activity moderated later in October, Eastern and Southern areas remained active, especially given below-average precipitation levels that left landscapes parched.

October’s Unusually Dry Conditions and Elevated Temperatures

Throughout October, the Mid-Atlantic region endured below-normal rainfall, aligning with dry spells that stretched across the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures soared well above average from the West Coast to the Appalachians, with particularly extreme heat anomalies across the Plains and into the East. These conditions resulted in drought expansion, with the U.S. Drought Monitor recording 87% of the country in at least abnormally dry conditions—the highest level on record. Drought impacts were most severe across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Appalachians, but the Mid-Atlantic and New England also experienced a marked increase in drought severity.

Fire Risks Elevated into November

Looking ahead, fire potential remains a concern as the dry and warm conditions from October carry into November. The Eastern Mid-Atlantic, in particular, faces continued drought and fire potential due to a combination of dry surface fuels and forecasted below-normal precipitation. While the northern Great Lakes region has recently seen rainfall that reduced fire risk, much of the Mid-Atlantic remains vulnerable. Leaf fall has created additional dry surface fuels, and any windy, dry spells are likely to spur ignition events. The combination of hunting season, outdoor fall activities, and leaf litter increases the likelihood of human-caused fires in these conditions.

Climate Forecasts: Drought and Temperature Trends

The Climate Prediction Center’s November outlook projects above-normal temperatures across much of the Eastern U.S., including the Mid-Atlantic. This warmth is expected to persist into the winter, with drier-than-average conditions for the Eastern Area, especially in the Southern Mid-Atlantic. As the weather transitions to a La Niña phase, typical patterns favor continued warm, dry conditions, especially in the southern parts of the region. In the northern areas, periodic rainfall could mitigate fire risks, but with deep soil layers still dry from prolonged summer droughts, potential fires may require extensive effort to control.

Managing Risks and Potential Outcomes

As the Mid-Atlantic faces November with elevated fire risks, the region’s significant drought conditions and dry surface fuels make any prolonged dry period dangerous. Fall curing of grasses and shrubs, coupled with leaf litter, provides ample fuel for fire spread in windy conditions. Without sustained rainfall, the fire potential will likely remain above average until either soaking rains or winter snow reduces the risk.

With forecasters calling for continued warmth and dryness through late fall and early winter, the Mid-Atlantic region must prepare for an active fire season. Proactive measures, public awareness, and careful monitoring will be essential to manage fire risks until conditions improve.

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