After taking a look over the the midday model runs and we are still on track for Delmarva seeing a major winter storm for the first time in a few years. But there is some key features I’m keeping a close eye on. Let’s get the run down going…
I am seeing some trends of the system moving ever so slightly northward which will shift the overall axis of the heaviest snow corridor back towards the MD/DE line on northward with areas further south to be dealing with some ice or even rain the further south you go. This is typical as we get closer in time with the wobbles back and forth which makes winter storm forecasting so much fun… Regardless, everyone will start off with snow in the evening hours on Sunday throughout the night but during the day Monday is when we play hide and seek with the mixing line.
Right now the big dogs the ECMWF and UKMET which statistically have higher verification rates in this range are showing a sizeable storm to region with widespread >4in from the Salisbury region on northward. Overall not much change with those two models from the last 24 hours which really support heavier snow from the MD/DE line up to Smyrna.
GFS/ICON/CMC are a little bit more north than the ECMWF/UKMET counterparts with the mixing line going up through almost Milford DE will all snow north of that. Heaviest snow axis with these runs start from Dover up to the Mason Dixon. Trends we have to keep a watch on to see if they continue for that.
Overall, the threat of a winter storm continues to grow here on Delmarva, just the minor details still need to be ironed out. I’ve highlighted the regions I am thinking currently will be seeing the heaviest snowfall from this storm near the MD/DE line on northward. Not quite ready to do actual snowfall totals as of yet, we will likely have those around this time tomorrow. With support from the NWS in Wakefield showing a good chunk of Delaware and the Maryland Eastern Shore of 50-80% probabilities of snowfall amounts 3 inches or great.
Keep checking back for updates on this impending winter storm.