A robust Arctic air mass is forecast to plunge into the Central U.S. next week, bringing widespread record-breaking low temperatures and dangerously low wind chills. Meteorologists indicate high confidence in this event, with numerous daily minimum temperature records expected to be set from the central Plains to the south-central U.S. between Tuesday and Friday. Some locations may approach or exceed their lowest recorded temperatures for this late in the winter season, with the freeze line potentially reaching as far south as the Gulf Coast.
Hazardous Wind Chill Conditions Expected
Accompanying the frigid temperatures, dangerously low wind chills ranging from -30°F to -60°F are expected across the northern Plains, persisting for several days. These conditions significantly increase the risk of frostbite and hypothermia with even brief exposure. Sub-zero wind chills are forecast to extend southward into Texas, Arkansas, and portions of western Tennessee and Kentucky, posing a widespread risk to public safety and infrastructure.
Increased Potential for Winter Storm and Heavy Snowfall
In addition to the Arctic outbreak, there is an increasing probability of a significant severe winter storm forming along the periphery of the cold air mass. While the specific track and intensity remain uncertain, current model guidance suggests that areas from the central Plains and the Ozarks to Kentucky through potentially the Northeast U.S. corridor could experience a highly impactful snowfall. Given the dynamic nature of winter storm development, continued monitoring of forecasts is essential as the system evolves.
Model guidance continues to grow higher confidence of a severe winter storm with snowfall amounts exceeding 10 inches is becoming more of a reality. NBM probability outputs show very highly probabilities of >60% for 6 inches or more of snowfall with going as far as >30% chance of 12 inches or more of snowfall.
